$US (Talus)|The coin safety market ranking for 00:02 had already listed the rate of increase as the second highest; by 00:10 after the rescan it returned to third, with a rolling 24-hour increase of 34.953%. My take is to watch and wait: from 23:00–00:00, the full hour saw a lift of 16.7%, but by 00:05 the mark price was back near 0.0292, so a breakout still needs full-candle confirmation.
This full hour started from 0.025726, reached a high of 0.030500, and closed at 0.030027, with USDT trading volume of about 11.869 million; the previous hour was about 3.623 million, roughly 3.3x larger. Looking back at the more detailed 4-hour period from 20:00–00:00, the close was about 32.7% higher than the open, and the high was also 0.030500. Digging deeper, about 86% of the hourly trading amount was concentrated in the last two 15-minute candles, and then the price dropped at the start of the new hour; this looks more like short-term acceleration, so you can’t call it a sustained breakout based on the peak alone. The new hour after 00:00 hasn’t finished yet; at 00:05 the mark price is 0.029213, about 2.7% lower than the previous hour’s close. Therefore, I’ll observe whether the full hour can regain and hold above 0.0300, and I won’t judge based on an incomplete candle until it either holds or fails.
Positioning data also doesn’t provide one-way confirmation: the number of open contracts increased from about 627.6 million at 23:00 to about 642.3 million at 00:00, up roughly 2.3%; it includes both long and short sides, so it doesn’t indicate net buying. The ratio of global long/short accounts decreased from 1.36 to 1.14—still more long accounts than short, but the advantage is smaller. The settlement funding rate at 00:00 was +0.0871% per period, meaning the long direction pays the short side in that period, so you can’t infer that a squeeze is coming from it. This section only analyzes USD-M contract data and does not extend it into spot buying or net inflows across the whole market.
On September 25, Talus officially released progress from the past nearly two months, listing Protocol v2.0, the developer API, and Coding Skills for AI programming assistants. This is the project team’s product update; the timing being close to the market movement doesn’t mean it caused the rally. Next, I’ll watch whether the full hour can regain and hold above 0.0300 again, and whether the trading volume and open positions continue to support it; if the price pulls back and the volume fades at the same time, then this breakout attempt will lack evidence of continuation.
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