sentimenpasar

U.S. consumers are suddenly far more confident than expected — and the crypto market is strengthening along with them.

The facts: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October (up from September’s revised 84.2), well above economists’ forecast of 81 (official release on Oct. 27, reported by Reuters). The Present Situation Index rose to 120.4 and the Expectations Index to 72.6 — their highest levels since June. But there’s an important caveat: plans to spend on services and durable goods actually weakened, while complaints about food and fuel prices increased.

My take: sentiment is improving, but that’s not proof that spending is picking up — and the market is reading it exactly that way. BTC is now around $81,090 and ETH around $2,360, after BTC climbed back above $80,000. Recovered confidence gives risk assets some breathing room, but with complaints about prices still rising, this recovery is fragile — especially with the Fed’s decision due on Oct. 29 at 01:00 WIB.

What I’m watching: whether BTC holds above $80,000 until the Fed announcement, and whether the next spending data confirms this optimism or overturns it.

Do you think a surge in consumer confidence like this is more often fuel for a rally, or just a pause before the Fed speaks?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#EkonomiAS #SentimenPasar $BTC $ETH

A well-known tech investor is urging people to sell Bitcoin — and his target is far below the current price: $57,000.

The facts: Jason Calacanis wrote on X on Oct. 27 (reported by CoinDesk and CryptoBriefing on Oct. 27), telling investors to sell Bitcoin and switch to AI. He called Bitcoin a "dead network," predicted its price would fall back to $57,000 within 12 months, and said it would not reach new highs. His reasons: waning investor enthusiasm and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs — around $774 million last Thursday and Friday, according to Farside Investors. Calacanis himself still holds TAO, the Bittensor token.

My take: this is the loudest bearish call from a mainstream tech figure in the past week, and it’s worth noting precisely because it runs counter to the Galaxy thesis I discussed earlier (the bear market ends in June, invalidated below $76,540). But the outflow argument has already weakened: just this past Monday, $110 million flowed back in through IBIT. And "losing the crowd" isn’t data — it’s sentiment. BTC is around $80,874 this morning, above Tuesday’s level of about $79,600.

What I’m watching: whether ETF outflows continue this week, and the Fed’s tone on Oct. 29 at 01:00 WIB — because those matter more than any one prediction.

What do you think: is a sell call like this a sign of peak pessimism, meaning we may be nearing a bottom, or an early warning worth listening to?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#Bitcoin #SentimenPasar $BTC