$PENG is up forever now at 48.5, down 0.899% over the past 24 hours. The funding rate has stopped at zero, and open interest is 4990.46. With this setup, when both long and short sides are unwilling to pay for direction, it’s hard to tell where the market will go. I don’t have any new employment or inflation data that could change rate expectations, so
$PENG doesn’t show signs of macro capital coming in to price it.
I’m not going to guess direction when the funding rate is at zero. A zero funding rate means longs aren’t crowding in, and shorts aren’t panicking. The drop in price has only generated a trading amount of 160355.62, which can’t support a trend. It looks more like a few accounts trading back and forth. With the funding rate at zero, arbitrage capital also can’t make money. Open interest has no reason to surge; price is easy to jump around with single large trades. This is a single-signal read—there’s only one observation point: the funding rate.
The strongest counter-evidence is if the funding rate suddenly turns positive. If
$PENG goes back above 48.5 and the funding rate starts being greater than zero, that would mean money has begun paying for long positions and my above cold assessment would be invalid. Conversely, if the funding rate turns negative and price keeps falling, then shorts are paying to hold—meaning shorts are piling up, not this kind of directionless state.
Action is straightforward: don’t touch it now. Wait until the funding rate leaves the zero axis before adding exposure. When the funding rate stays neither up nor down and hovers around zero, entering
$PENG is just running alongside.
Trading tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #PENG
Where do you think this judgment is most likely to be wrong?