$IREN In the past 24 hours, it fell 14.432%, to 35.10. The funding rate is still positive at 0.00011092. The squeeze doesn’t line up; longs are paying and holding the position at the same time. Macro-wise, contract income like this only reaches 4B in 2026 and discussions of 10x capacity expansion aren’t until 2028—so it’s most sensitive to the discount rate. If interest rates don’t fall, its duration is essentially its liability.
Single-source Simply Wall St sets a target price of 72.25, arguing that the AI data center transformation offers about 65% upside potential—this is the bulls’ strongest thesis. On the other hand, a CNN-sourced report shows Morgan maintains a Sell rating; the technical indicators are flashing strong sell ahead of the earnings report. Two independent sources are at odds. The long-term story may be right, but it’s the financing costs it has to pay right now that are wrong.
What to do: If the funding rate turns from positive to negative and the open position size declines, I think bulls are clearing out—so it isn’t really oversold. If the funding rate stays positive while the price keeps dropping, it means leveraged longs are still averaging down, and any rebound is just a bear-trap for longs. I won’t catch this falling knife. I’ll wait until the first time the funding rate flips negative after earnings before considering going long; otherwise, I won’t touch it.
Trading tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #IREN
Where do you think this assessment is most likely to be wrong?