Argentinaโs financial markets took a heavy hit this week. Corruption allegations against officials linked to President Javier Milei shook investor confidence, deepened political uncertainty, and complicated the run-up to Octoberโs midterm elections.
๐ Markets in the Red
On Monday, Argentinaโs dollar-denominated bonds dropped to multi-month lows โ the 2038 sovereign bond fell 2.4 cents to 67.37 cents on the dollar, its weakest level in more than four months. The 2041 bond lost nearly 3 cents.
The Merval Index (.MERV), the countryโs stock market benchmark, sank 4% after a 3.8% decline the previous week. The peso also weakened nearly 3% to 1,356 per dollar. Asian FX markets priced the official rate at 1,358.9. Over the past four weeks, the peso lost more than 5% against the dollar, though it remains up over 43% year-on-year.
๐ต๏ธ Bribery Probe: Mileiโs Sister Implicated
The scandal erupted after the release of audio recordings allegedly capturing Diego Spagnuolo, former head of Argentinaโs disability agency, discussing bribery schemes. The tapes also mention Karina Milei, the presidentโs sister and chief of staff, as a recipient of illegal payments.
Authorities raided multiple properties, seizing phones and even a money-counting machine. Spagnuolo was swiftly removed from his post, though the authenticity of the tapes has not yet been confirmed. President Milei dismissed the allegations as politically motivated attacks by the opposition.
โ๏ธ Political Pressure and Loss of Confidence
Opposition lawmakers are demanding testimony from health officials overseeing the disability office. Tensions have also escalated following Mileiโs recent veto of disability aid, which Congress failed to override. The upcoming October elections may effectively serve as a referendum on Mileiโs market reforms and budget cuts.
โInvestors fear the scandal could weaken Mileiโs ability to push through tough reforms,โ said Marcelo Garcia, director of Horizon Engage. โWithout action, it looks like he doesnโt care about the weak and poor.โ
โก Mileiโs Combative Style at Risk
Mileiโs confrontational political style once helped pull Argentina out of years of recession. But this time, it could backfire.
โHis strategy requires him to remain highly popular,โ Garcia explained. โAny scandal that erodes that popularity could seriously complicate his economic agenda.โ
๐ Argentina now faces weeks of uncertainty: falling markets, a weakening peso, and a corruption investigation that could undermine the very foundation of Mileiโs government and its reform plan.
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