🚨 Bear Market is 80% OVER? But 65% Chance of New Low Still Remains...
The DeFi Report just dropped a deep dive on
$BTC after 287 days of bear market.
Here's what crowd psychology is actually telling us:
Most people focus on price. Smart money watches TIME.
The market has seen 3 major 30%+ corrections. Now it's not panic selling that's killing retail, it's time-based erosion — when price does nothing for months and you slowly give up.
Data:
• Peak buyers have already handed over 52% of their BTC to long-term holders
• The $92K-$108K buyers are the most stubborn — only 18% sold. If they break and selling hits 20-30%, that's the final capitulation
• Fair value is $65K. In 2022 we spent 107 days below it. This cycle only 47 days. Market cap drawdown is just 5.8% vs 19% before — ETFs are holding the floor
Levels that matter:
Lower Support: $63K — must hold
Bull Confirmation: $70K-$73K — break this and bear trend breaks
Time-based bottom expected: $60K-$70K range
If systemic shock hits: Deep value $50K-$55K
Macro risk: Middle East oil + Strait of Hormuz = inflation back up = Fed hawkish again. Plus AI bubble risk.
So is the bottom in? No. We are in the most boring and most dangerous phase — where time tests you, not price.
Are YOU getting eroded by time or accumulating?
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@VIKAS JANGRA for crowd mindset decoded.
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