$ON • how I see the next 12 months
It ran from 31.04 to a 134.92 ATH, pulled back to 65.80, and is now at 86.76. I think the pullback is done.
Why I like the business:
✅ Q2 revenue was $1.60B, up 9% YoY, so growth is back
✅ Q3 guidance came in above estimates
✅ Free cash flow quadrupled to $425M, and margins keep expanding
✅ AI data center revenue should more than double this year to $500M+
✅ New SiC deals with NIO and Geely, plus wins at Rivian and AWS
✅ Buying Synaptics for $5.7B in cash, and there's $5.3B left on the buyback
⚠️ Risk: cheap Chinese SiC competition.
My path is higher highs and higher lows:
🎯 ATH 134.92 is the first test
🎯 T1 169.68 (+95.6%)
🎯 T2 233.88
❌ Invalid on a weekly close under 65.80.
Street bear. Base. Pull cases:
🐻 Bear $75, from Truist (Hold), about 13% below the current price
⚖️ Base $104, the average, about 21% upside
🐂 Bull $150, from Susquehanna, about 75% upside
Will ON get back to the ATH within a year?
#stocks