bitcoin

This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years

Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.

I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.

But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.

But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.

This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.

Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.

The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.

This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.

And this makes sense.

Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.

Inflationary and logarithmic?

This is vital. Let me translate it for you.

Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.

Easy but logarithmic?

This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.

🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.

One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.

But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.

At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.

If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.

So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.

🚀 Where will this low happen?

I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.

In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.

And a lot.

The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%

And now?

Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.

This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.

In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.

Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months

If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.

That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.

Who knows.

But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.

After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).

Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)

We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.

The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.

And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.

👇 WANT MORE?

🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

#bitcoin #metrics
Several strong metrics indicate a turning point in the cycle — such periods often determine the market direction for months ahead.
— The Bitcoin Vector indicator previously accurately marked the altcoin rally and subsequent reversal in January. The market is currently in a BTC cycle, but the indicators are gradually shifting towards altcoins.

Author of the news: Crypto Emergency
Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets and one of the key authors of Russian cryptocurrency regulation, made a strong statement about the future of Bitcoin. According to him, BTC 'sooner or later will crash' as it has no material backing and is based on speculative interest.

Data from decades shows a rule that is almost 'immutable':
Bitcoin has never closed negatively in both January and February in the same year!
🔶 January is usually a 'positive kickoff' month (average +2.81%, median +0.29%).
🔶 February is even stronger (average +11.27%, median +11.68%) – usually the darkest green month at the beginning of the year.

But the year 2026 is breaking all the rules:
🔴 January 2026: -10.17%
🔴 February 2026 (ongoing): -12.72% (still red, and the month isn't over yet!)

1. THE CONFLICT: Current Situation (February 10, 2026)
The Crisis of the Strait of Hormuz and the Nuclear Factor
The White House issued a statement this morning warning that "any attempt to block global energy flow will be met with disproportionate force." This comes after incidents reported last night where fast boats from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) harassed tankers flying the Liberian flag.
Context: Following the definitive collapse of attempts to revive the JCPOA (Nuclear Agreement) at the end of 2025, Iran has accelerated its program. Sources from the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) suggest today that the surveillance cameras in Natanz have been disconnected again.

The recent Bitcoin sell-off wasn’t a crash it was a transfer of ownership.
When price dipped into the low $60K region, panic dominated the narrative. Short-term holders and miners capitulated almost simultaneously, creating the impression of broad market weakness. On-chain data shows something very different: sell-side exhaustion.
During the decline:
Miners’ Position Index (MPI) spiked to 2.95, confirming forced miner selling
Short-Term Holder SOPR dropped to 0.97, meaning recent buyers realized losses
Short-Term Holder realized price hovered near $92K, leaving late entrants deeply underwater
This type of synchronized sell pressure typically marks stress completion, not trend continuation.
What matters most is where that supply went.
On-chain flows show wallets holding 100–1,000 $BTC absorbed roughly 77% of the sell pressure during the dip. These were not speculative entries. Long-Term Holder realized cap change flipped decisively positive, with over $5.68B added within a single week. This absorption created clear downside rigidity near current price levels.
Price behavior confirms it. After the initial flush, #bitcoin stopped accelerating lower. Volatility compressed, selling pressure weakened, and price stabilized around the $69K area despite negative sentiment. That is not distribution that is structural support forming.
This does not mean risk has disappeared.
Miner profitability remains strained. Hashprice has rebounded from its local low but is still well below its 365-day average. As long as miner margins remain compressed, intermittent sell-side pressure is still possible. This keeps the market in a controlled accumulation phase, not a breakout phase.
The key takeaway is simple:
Bitcoin didn’t collapse it rotated.
Weak hands exited under pressure. Strong hands absorbed supply with patience. Until demand meaningfully returns, price may remain slow and frustrating but the sell-side has already done its job.
This is the type of rotation that usually becomes obvious only in hindsight.
From here, direction won’t be decided by panic.
It will be decided by patience.