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This Is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years
This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years
Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.
I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.
But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.
But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.
This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.
Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.
The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.
This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.
And this makes sense.
Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.
Inflationary and logarithmic?
This is vital. Let me translate it for you.
Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.
Easy but logarithmic?
This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.
🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.
One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.
But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.
At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.
If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.
So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.
🚀 Where will this low happen?
I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.
In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.
And a lot.
The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%
And now?
Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.
This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.
In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.
Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months
If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.
That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.
Who knows.
But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.
After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).
Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)
We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.
The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.
And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.
👇 WANT MORE?
🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.
I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.
But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.
But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.
This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.
Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.
The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.
This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.
And this makes sense.
Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.
Inflationary and logarithmic?
This is vital. Let me translate it for you.
Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.
Easy but logarithmic?
This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.
🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.
One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.
But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.
At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.
If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.
So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.
🚀 Where will this low happen?
I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.
In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.
And a lot.
The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%
And now?
Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.
This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.
In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.
Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months
If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.
That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.
Who knows.
But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.
After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).
Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)
We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.
The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.
And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.
👇 WANT MORE?
🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
Illia Runner:
Halving cycles are real but market structure has changed. ETFs, macro liquidity and institutional flows distort pure 4-year models. If we revisit 30–40K, it won’t be because of “cycle math” it will be because of liquidity conditions. Question is: what macro trigger gets us there?
🚨 ALERT: BITCOIN IS AT A CROSSROADS! (What no one tells you)
The market does not forgive the unaware. While most only look at the price of $69,632, the big players are playing chess. Are you the player or the piece? ♟️
The Dark Side (The Risks):
The technical situation is tense. We had a death cross: the EMA 7 crossed below the EMA 25, and the MACD is screaming "bearish momentum". Added to the selling pressure from miners (Cango sold +4,400 $BTC !), the risk of a deeper correction is real. Some predict drops of up to 50% if the macro support fails. 📉
The Bright Side (The Opportunity):
But hold on! Not everything is chaos. MicroStrategy just scooped up another 1,142 BTC. Do they know something you don’t? Additionally, the Federal Reserve plans to inject $8.3 billion in liquidity. New money in the market usually pushes risk assets to the top.
The Golden Question:
Are we facing a "bear trap" or the beginning of a harsh winter? ❄️🔥
What are you going to do?
1️⃣ Buy the dip?
2️⃣ Wait for $60k?
3️⃣ Exit the market?
Comment your strategy below! 👇
👉 Want to anticipate the next market moves and not be caught by surprise? Follow my profile now for raw and direct analyses! 🚀
#BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund #USIranStandoff #bitcoin #BTC
The market does not forgive the unaware. While most only look at the price of $69,632, the big players are playing chess. Are you the player or the piece? ♟️
The Dark Side (The Risks):
The technical situation is tense. We had a death cross: the EMA 7 crossed below the EMA 25, and the MACD is screaming "bearish momentum". Added to the selling pressure from miners (Cango sold +4,400 $BTC !), the risk of a deeper correction is real. Some predict drops of up to 50% if the macro support fails. 📉
The Bright Side (The Opportunity):
But hold on! Not everything is chaos. MicroStrategy just scooped up another 1,142 BTC. Do they know something you don’t? Additionally, the Federal Reserve plans to inject $8.3 billion in liquidity. New money in the market usually pushes risk assets to the top.
The Golden Question:
Are we facing a "bear trap" or the beginning of a harsh winter? ❄️🔥
What are you going to do?
1️⃣ Buy the dip?
2️⃣ Wait for $60k?
3️⃣ Exit the market?
Comment your strategy below! 👇
👉 Want to anticipate the next market moves and not be caught by surprise? Follow my profile now for raw and direct analyses! 🚀
#BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund #USIranStandoff #bitcoin #BTC
Maryam Reynaud MK0B:
Analisando um pouco o gráfico fica a possibilidade de mais correção. Uma injeção financeira maior nos ativos tendem a dar uma maior volatidade. Sendo assim seguimos a tendência.
BTC Weekly Structure: Distribution… or Just the Calm Before Expansion?
Most traders won’t catch this at first glance, but on the weekly timeframe, $BTC is moving in a rhythm we’ve seen before. It looks messy zoomed in. Zoom out — and the structure tells a much clearer story.
Bitcoin historically rotates through phases: impulse → consolidation → impulse → exhaustion.
The last major leg up had all the late-cycle characteristics — aggressive expansion, shallow pullbacks, relentless continuation. That kind of behavior typically shows up closer to cycle tops than fresh beginnings.
Now the character has shifted.
We’re seeing:
• Lower highs beginning to stack
• Price compressing inside a tightening range
• Volatility cooling off
• Momentum losing its clean follow-through
The waves are still there — but they’re no longer impulsive. They hesitate. They stall. Structurally, that leans more toward distribution than fresh accumulation.
If history offers guidance, $BTC may need more time to reset expectations. That could mean extended sideways action. It could also mean one deeper corrective leg to properly clear positioning before any sustainable expansion resumes.
A true bullish shift won’t be subtle. It will look like:
Strong impulse legs
Followed by continuation
Not hesitation
Until that structure reappears, this remains a patience environment — not a prediction environment.
Watch behavior. Not hope.
#bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis
Bitcoin historically rotates through phases: impulse → consolidation → impulse → exhaustion.
The last major leg up had all the late-cycle characteristics — aggressive expansion, shallow pullbacks, relentless continuation. That kind of behavior typically shows up closer to cycle tops than fresh beginnings.
Now the character has shifted.
We’re seeing:
• Lower highs beginning to stack
• Price compressing inside a tightening range
• Volatility cooling off
• Momentum losing its clean follow-through
The waves are still there — but they’re no longer impulsive. They hesitate. They stall. Structurally, that leans more toward distribution than fresh accumulation.
If history offers guidance, $BTC may need more time to reset expectations. That could mean extended sideways action. It could also mean one deeper corrective leg to properly clear positioning before any sustainable expansion resumes.
A true bullish shift won’t be subtle. It will look like:
Strong impulse legs
Followed by continuation
Not hesitation
Until that structure reappears, this remains a patience environment — not a prediction environment.
Watch behavior. Not hope.
#bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis
📉 Bitcoin $BTC
🚨 TRADE SIGNAL: SHORT$ALLO
Bias: Bearish 🔴$FTT
🚪 Entry: $69,800 - $70,500 (Rejecting the retest of broken support)
🎯 TPs: $66,000 - $63,500 - $60,200
🛑 SL: $71,600 (Invalidation if it reclaims $71k)
💡 Technical Logic: BTC has officially lost the $70,000 psychological floor. The "Sharpe Ratio" has hit lows not seen since 2023, indicating structural weakness. The $70k level has flipped from support to resistance. We are selling any bounce into this level, targeting the liquidity void down to $60k.
#BTC #bitcoin #USTechFundFlows #GoldSilverRally #WhaleDeRiskETH
🚨 TRADE SIGNAL: SHORT$ALLO
Bias: Bearish 🔴$FTT
🚪 Entry: $69,800 - $70,500 (Rejecting the retest of broken support)
🎯 TPs: $66,000 - $63,500 - $60,200
🛑 SL: $71,600 (Invalidation if it reclaims $71k)
💡 Technical Logic: BTC has officially lost the $70,000 psychological floor. The "Sharpe Ratio" has hit lows not seen since 2023, indicating structural weakness. The $70k level has flipped from support to resistance. We are selling any bounce into this level, targeting the liquidity void down to $60k.
#BTC #bitcoin #USTechFundFlows #GoldSilverRally #WhaleDeRiskETH
BTC Weekly Structure: Distribution or Just a Pause Before the Next Expansion?
Most people won’t notice this, but on the weekly chart, $BTC is printing a very familiar rhythm. At first glance it looks random and directionless, almost messy. But when you zoom out and study the structure carefully, it’s far from chaotic.
Bitcoin tends to move in repeating phases: impulse → pause → impulse → exhaustion. The previous leg up was classic late-cycle behavior strong expansion, shallow pullbacks, and continuation after continuation.
That type of price action usually appears near the end of a cycle, not at the beginning. When upside momentum gets fully consumed, the market shifts its character.
What we’re seeing now is different. Lower highs are forming, price is compressing in a relatively tight range, and volatility is drying up. The waves still exist, but they’re no longer clean or impulsive like before. Structurally, this leans more toward distribution than fresh accumulation.
If previous cycles are any guide, #BTC may need more time to reset. That could mean extended sideways action, or even one deeper corrective move to properly shake out positioning before a true new expansion phase begins.
I’ll only turn structurally bullish again when price starts trending with clarity when impulse legs are followed by strong continuation, not hesitation. Until then, patience matters more than prediction.
#bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis
Bitcoin tends to move in repeating phases: impulse → pause → impulse → exhaustion. The previous leg up was classic late-cycle behavior strong expansion, shallow pullbacks, and continuation after continuation.
That type of price action usually appears near the end of a cycle, not at the beginning. When upside momentum gets fully consumed, the market shifts its character.
What we’re seeing now is different. Lower highs are forming, price is compressing in a relatively tight range, and volatility is drying up. The waves still exist, but they’re no longer clean or impulsive like before. Structurally, this leans more toward distribution than fresh accumulation.
If previous cycles are any guide, #BTC may need more time to reset. That could mean extended sideways action, or even one deeper corrective move to properly shake out positioning before a true new expansion phase begins.
I’ll only turn structurally bullish again when price starts trending with clarity when impulse legs are followed by strong continuation, not hesitation. Until then, patience matters more than prediction.
#bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis
QuangHaiJK:
phân tích quá chuẩn
Are we really going to swallow this story now?🤨
It turns out that Goldman Sachs, yes, the same ones who spent YEARS saying that cryptocurrencies were not a real asset and that Bitcoin had no value, have just revealed that they have BILLIONS invested in Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and even XRP ETFs.😲
How convenient!🙄
First, they tell you it's "play money" and to be careful, they wait for prices to drop or for the market to mature, and while you hesitated, they were silently filling their bags. It’s the height of financial hypocrisy. They mock ordinary people while behind the scenes they use their institutional capital to take over the board.
The question is not whether cryptocurrencies work (obviously Goldman Sachs knows they do), the question is:
Why do we keep listening to these "experts" who say one thing and do exactly the opposite?
Don't be fooled. Smart money has already entered, and they didn't do it because they "changed their mind"; they did it because they don't want to miss out on the deal of the century.
What do you think?
Do you believe that Goldman Sachs is now an "ally" of the sector or are they simply the same wolves as always in sheep's clothing?
👇 Share what you think in the comments, I read them (and we vent together).💥
#bitcoin #Ethereum #solana #Ripple $BTC $ETH $SOL
Disclaimer ⚠️
The information provided in the previous post is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be interpreted as financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.🚫
Investments in cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) carry significant risks, including the potential total loss of the invested capital.⚠️
Always conduct your own research (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) 🫵🏻
It turns out that Goldman Sachs, yes, the same ones who spent YEARS saying that cryptocurrencies were not a real asset and that Bitcoin had no value, have just revealed that they have BILLIONS invested in Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and even XRP ETFs.😲
How convenient!🙄
First, they tell you it's "play money" and to be careful, they wait for prices to drop or for the market to mature, and while you hesitated, they were silently filling their bags. It’s the height of financial hypocrisy. They mock ordinary people while behind the scenes they use their institutional capital to take over the board.
The question is not whether cryptocurrencies work (obviously Goldman Sachs knows they do), the question is:
Why do we keep listening to these "experts" who say one thing and do exactly the opposite?
Don't be fooled. Smart money has already entered, and they didn't do it because they "changed their mind"; they did it because they don't want to miss out on the deal of the century.
What do you think?
Do you believe that Goldman Sachs is now an "ally" of the sector or are they simply the same wolves as always in sheep's clothing?
👇 Share what you think in the comments, I read them (and we vent together).💥
#bitcoin #Ethereum #solana #Ripple $BTC $ETH $SOL
Disclaimer ⚠️
The information provided in the previous post is for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be interpreted as financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.🚫
Investments in cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) carry significant risks, including the potential total loss of the invested capital.⚠️
Always conduct your own research (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) 🫵🏻
Gsteel:
ninguna institución quiere que tu ganes dinero. Todos son lobos que quieren devorarte como su presa....
Is Bitcoin dead...
⚔️ Bitcoin 2026 Deep Dive: Market, Whales, Cycles & Real Stories
1️⃣ BTC Today – Volatility but Structure Still Alive
As of February 11, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $66,900 – $67,000, down roughly 2–3% in the last 24 hours. Recent high was near $69,200 and intraday low around $66,400.
From the October 2025 ATH above $126,000, BTC is currently down nearly 47%. Historically, this type of correction is not unusual in post-halving cycles.
Key Data Snapshot:
- Market Cap: ~$1.37 Trillion - 24h Volume: $40–70B - Circulating Supply: ~19.98M BTC - BTC Dominance: ~58%
Short-term support sits around $64K–$65K. Major resistance remains $70K–$72K. A strong reclaim above resistance could shift momentum bullish again.
2️⃣ Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2026?
Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million. Major holders include:
- Satoshi Nakamoto (~1.1M BTC, dormant)
- Coinbase Custody
- BlackRock IBIT ETF
- Binance Reserves
- Fidelity Digital Assets
- MicroStrategy
- Grayscale Trust
- U.S. Government (seized BTC)
- Robinhood
- Bitfinex
Institutional accumulation is significantly stronger than previous cycles. ETFs and custodians now control a large portion of circulating supply.
3️⃣ The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle
Bitcoin historically follows halving-driven cycles:
2012 → Massive rally
2016 → Run to $20K
2020 → Run to $69K
2024 → ATH ~$126K (2025 peak)
Current drawdown (~47%) aligns with historical correction behavior. Next halving is expected in 2028.
The key question: Was $126K the cycle top, or are we mid-cycle?
4️⃣ Bitcoin Transactions: From 2009 to Lightning
First transaction: January 12, 2009 (Satoshi to Hal Finney).
First real-world purchase: May 22, 2010 – 10,000 BTC for two pizzas.
Today, the Lightning Network enables near-instant, low-fee payments. Layer-2 scaling and sidechains are expanding Bitcoin beyond store-of-value use cases.
5️⃣ Real Bitcoin Stories
- Erik Finman turned early BTC into life-changing wealth.
- Laszlo Hanyecz proved BTC had value with the famous pizza purchase.
- The Bitcoin Family went all-in and built a nomadic crypto lifestyle.
Final Thoughts
Volatility remains high. Sentiment is fragile. But institutions are here, ETFs are active, and long-term holders remain strong.
Corrections reset markets. Structure determines direction.
Are we in distribution or accumulation?
What’s your move holding, buying dips, or waiting?
$BTC
#BTC #bitcoin #crypto #BinanceSquare #Write2Earn
1️⃣ BTC Today – Volatility but Structure Still Alive
As of February 11, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $66,900 – $67,000, down roughly 2–3% in the last 24 hours. Recent high was near $69,200 and intraday low around $66,400.
From the October 2025 ATH above $126,000, BTC is currently down nearly 47%. Historically, this type of correction is not unusual in post-halving cycles.
Key Data Snapshot:
- Market Cap: ~$1.37 Trillion - 24h Volume: $40–70B - Circulating Supply: ~19.98M BTC - BTC Dominance: ~58%
Short-term support sits around $64K–$65K. Major resistance remains $70K–$72K. A strong reclaim above resistance could shift momentum bullish again.
2️⃣ Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2026?
Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million. Major holders include:
- Satoshi Nakamoto (~1.1M BTC, dormant)
- Coinbase Custody
- BlackRock IBIT ETF
- Binance Reserves
- Fidelity Digital Assets
- MicroStrategy
- Grayscale Trust
- U.S. Government (seized BTC)
- Robinhood
- Bitfinex
Institutional accumulation is significantly stronger than previous cycles. ETFs and custodians now control a large portion of circulating supply.
3️⃣ The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle
Bitcoin historically follows halving-driven cycles:
2012 → Massive rally
2016 → Run to $20K
2020 → Run to $69K
2024 → ATH ~$126K (2025 peak)
Current drawdown (~47%) aligns with historical correction behavior. Next halving is expected in 2028.
The key question: Was $126K the cycle top, or are we mid-cycle?
4️⃣ Bitcoin Transactions: From 2009 to Lightning
First transaction: January 12, 2009 (Satoshi to Hal Finney).
First real-world purchase: May 22, 2010 – 10,000 BTC for two pizzas.
Today, the Lightning Network enables near-instant, low-fee payments. Layer-2 scaling and sidechains are expanding Bitcoin beyond store-of-value use cases.
5️⃣ Real Bitcoin Stories
- Erik Finman turned early BTC into life-changing wealth.
- Laszlo Hanyecz proved BTC had value with the famous pizza purchase.
- The Bitcoin Family went all-in and built a nomadic crypto lifestyle.
Final Thoughts
Volatility remains high. Sentiment is fragile. But institutions are here, ETFs are active, and long-term holders remain strong.
Corrections reset markets. Structure determines direction.
Are we in distribution or accumulation?
What’s your move holding, buying dips, or waiting?
$BTC
#BTC #bitcoin #crypto #BinanceSquare #Write2Earn
Square-Creator-7ab0a341d5d02265d52f:
I might be wrong but forget about high for a while
🚨 The market is on the brink of a phase change: BTC maintains control, but altseason may be approaching
#bitcoin #metrics
Several strong metrics indicate a turning point in the cycle — such periods often determine the market direction for months ahead.
— The Bitcoin Vector indicator previously accurately marked the altcoin rally and subsequent reversal in January. The market is currently in a BTC cycle, but the indicators are gradually shifting towards altcoins.
Several strong metrics indicate a turning point in the cycle — such periods often determine the market direction for months ahead.
— The Bitcoin Vector indicator previously accurately marked the altcoin rally and subsequent reversal in January. The market is currently in a BTC cycle, but the indicators are gradually shifting towards altcoins.
RealzRock:
Такое чувство что вчера только узнал о крипте, какой альтсезон😁
🚨 TRADE SIGNAL: $BTC
Bias: Bearish / Sell the Rip 🔴$ETH
🚪 Entry: 69,500 - 70,200 (Resistance retest)
🎯 TPs: 68,200 - 66,500 - 64,800 $XRP
🛑 SL: 71,400
💡 Logic: BTC is showing weakness after failing to reclaim the psychological $70,000 level. Momentum indicators (RSI) on the 4H chart are resetting lower. The "Tuesday Slide" is in effect, and the path of least resistance is a revisit of the $65k - $66k demand zone before any meaningful bounce.
#BTC #bitcoin #USRetailSalesMissForecast #USTechFundFlows #WhaleDeRiskETH
Bias: Bearish / Sell the Rip 🔴$ETH
🚪 Entry: 69,500 - 70,200 (Resistance retest)
🎯 TPs: 68,200 - 66,500 - 64,800 $XRP
🛑 SL: 71,400
💡 Logic: BTC is showing weakness after failing to reclaim the psychological $70,000 level. Momentum indicators (RSI) on the 4H chart are resetting lower. The "Tuesday Slide" is in effect, and the path of least resistance is a revisit of the $65k - $66k demand zone before any meaningful bounce.
#BTC #bitcoin #USRetailSalesMissForecast #USTechFundFlows #WhaleDeRiskETH
Just wondering... Are you all sleeping peacefully with this drop? 📉👀
Guys, I started looking at the Bitcoin chart a while ago and seeing that $68,800 gave me a chill in my stomach. 🥶 I know many of us here in Venezuela 🇻🇪 are involved in this to get ahead, and seeing the market go "crazy" all of a sudden stresses anyone out.$BTC
Everyone is talking about #WhenWillBTCRebound, but the truth is that no one has a crystal ball. Right now, I prefer a thousand times to have my peace of mind (and my savings in USDT) than to be glued to the screen suffering for every little red candle. 🕯️❌
Am I the only one who feels that sometimes it's better to take a step back and wait for the waters to calm down?
👇 Tell me down here: How are the nerves today?
Did you buy more or are you watching the bulls from the barrier? I read you so I don’t feel alone in this panic haha. 💬👇
#BinanceSquareBTC #venezuela #bitcoin #trading #Crypto
Guys, I started looking at the Bitcoin chart a while ago and seeing that $68,800 gave me a chill in my stomach. 🥶 I know many of us here in Venezuela 🇻🇪 are involved in this to get ahead, and seeing the market go "crazy" all of a sudden stresses anyone out.$BTC
Everyone is talking about #WhenWillBTCRebound, but the truth is that no one has a crystal ball. Right now, I prefer a thousand times to have my peace of mind (and my savings in USDT) than to be glued to the screen suffering for every little red candle. 🕯️❌
Am I the only one who feels that sometimes it's better to take a step back and wait for the waters to calm down?
👇 Tell me down here: How are the nerves today?
Did you buy more or are you watching the bulls from the barrier? I read you so I don’t feel alone in this panic haha. 💬👇
#BinanceSquareBTC #venezuela #bitcoin #trading #Crypto
User_Rave:
pues estoy en pérdida con una moneda en específico pero de perder 900 usdt creo que si debo pensarmelo porque dudo un poco que rebote quizás en un buen par de meses cada vez baja.
The creator of the Russian law on cryptocurrencies stated that Bitcoin 'sooner or later will crash'
Author of the news: Crypto Emergency
Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets and one of the key authors of Russian cryptocurrency regulation, made a strong statement about the future of Bitcoin. According to him, BTC 'sooner or later will crash' as it has no material backing and is based on speculative interest.
Anatoly Aksakov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets and one of the key authors of Russian cryptocurrency regulation, made a strong statement about the future of Bitcoin. According to him, BTC 'sooner or later will crash' as it has no material backing and is based on speculative interest.
Prowler71:
У всего есть начало и конец. Но заявил об этом пердун - долбоеб.
🔴 JOE LUBIN WARNS OF $BTC QUANTUM RISK
Joe Lubin said #bitcoin could face an existential problem, alluding to Q Day, when encryption could be challenged by quantum computers.
He added that it’s reasonable to worry about this risk, even if that day isn’t here yet.
#USRetailSalesMissForecast
Joe Lubin said #bitcoin could face an existential problem, alluding to Q Day, when encryption could be challenged by quantum computers.
He added that it’s reasonable to worry about this risk, even if that day isn’t here yet.
#USRetailSalesMissForecast
𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝗽 𝘁𝗼 $48K? 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗜𝘀 𝗦𝗲𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 👇
Kalshi prediction market traders are now pricing a scenario where Bitcoin could revisit $48,000 before year end.
This is not random fear. This is capital-backed conviction.
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴?
• ETF inflows have slowed compared to earlier momentum phases.
• Spot volumes are cooling.
• Funding rates are unstable.
• Liquidation clusters are building below current price.
• Macro liquidity remains tight.
This is not panic.
𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴.
When regulated platforms like Kalshi price in $48K, they are reflecting structured risk analysis, not Twitter emotion.
Now the important question —
𝗜𝗳 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗼𝘂𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘀 $48𝗞, 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆?
Historically, major psychological levels often act as strong accumulation zones.
Liquidity sweeps shake out weak hands.
Institutions wait for discounted entries.
Remember:
𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀.
Short term fear can build long term structure.
What to watch next:
• ETF flow data
• Central bank liquidity signals
• Derivatives positioning
• Reaction at $50K–$48K support zone
If buying volume explodes near support → Bearish narrative invalidated.
If support breaks with volume → Deeper correction possible.
Right now, the market is not euphoric.
𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻.
And uncertainty is where smart positioning begins.
Are you preparing emotionally…
or strategically? 🧠📊
#bitcoin #CryptoMarkets
Kalshi prediction market traders are now pricing a scenario where Bitcoin could revisit $48,000 before year end.
This is not random fear. This is capital-backed conviction.
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴?
• ETF inflows have slowed compared to earlier momentum phases.
• Spot volumes are cooling.
• Funding rates are unstable.
• Liquidation clusters are building below current price.
• Macro liquidity remains tight.
This is not panic.
𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴.
When regulated platforms like Kalshi price in $48K, they are reflecting structured risk analysis, not Twitter emotion.
Now the important question —
𝗜𝗳 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗼𝘂𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘀 $48𝗞, 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆?
Historically, major psychological levels often act as strong accumulation zones.
Liquidity sweeps shake out weak hands.
Institutions wait for discounted entries.
Remember:
𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀.
Short term fear can build long term structure.
What to watch next:
• ETF flow data
• Central bank liquidity signals
• Derivatives positioning
• Reaction at $50K–$48K support zone
If buying volume explodes near support → Bearish narrative invalidated.
If support breaks with volume → Deeper correction possible.
Right now, the market is not euphoric.
𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻.
And uncertainty is where smart positioning begins.
Are you preparing emotionally…
or strategically? 🧠📊
#bitcoin #CryptoMarkets
BOBBERs:
Not possible Mr jangra 😊 because year end is elections the first Tuesday in November hope you got the point 😉😉
POMP: THIS IS THE STRONGEST “DRAWDOWN” WE’VE SEEN
Anthony Pompliano says something that doesn’t feel true… but the data backs it up.
From peak to now, this is the least severe major pullback #Bitcoin has ever had.
It doesn’t feel calm when $BTC drops 10% in a day. But zoom out -- volatility has compressed from an 80-vol asset to roughly 40-vol. That’s a structural shift.
ETFs and new instruments changed the game. Bitcoin isn’t just held forever anymore -- it’s actively traded. That means more two-way flow and more realistic price discovery.
#bitcoin $BTC
Anthony Pompliano says something that doesn’t feel true… but the data backs it up.
From peak to now, this is the least severe major pullback #Bitcoin has ever had.
It doesn’t feel calm when $BTC drops 10% in a day. But zoom out -- volatility has compressed from an 80-vol asset to roughly 40-vol. That’s a structural shift.
ETFs and new instruments changed the game. Bitcoin isn’t just held forever anymore -- it’s actively traded. That means more two-way flow and more realistic price discovery.
#bitcoin $BTC
🚨 BTC HISTORY BROKEN: FOR THE FIRST TIME JANUARY + FEBRUARY ARE BOTH RED IN THE SAME YEAR?
Data from decades shows a rule that is almost 'immutable':
Bitcoin has never closed negatively in both January and February in the same year!
🔶 January is usually a 'positive kickoff' month (average +2.81%, median +0.29%).
🔶 February is even stronger (average +11.27%, median +11.68%) – usually the darkest green month at the beginning of the year.
But the year 2026 is breaking all the rules:
🔴 January 2026: -10.17%
🔴 February 2026 (ongoing): -12.72% (still red, and the month isn't over yet!)
Bitcoin has never closed negatively in both January and February in the same year!
🔶 January is usually a 'positive kickoff' month (average +2.81%, median +0.29%).
🔶 February is even stronger (average +11.27%, median +11.68%) – usually the darkest green month at the beginning of the year.
But the year 2026 is breaking all the rules:
🔴 January 2026: -10.17%
🔴 February 2026 (ongoing): -12.72% (still red, and the month isn't over yet!)
Binance BiBi:
Hey there! That's a great piece of analysis. My search suggests you're right, it seems this is the first time in BTC's history for both Jan & Feb to be in the red. As of 14:57 UTC, BTC is at $68,449.99 (-1.17% 24h). Definitely a rare event! Remember to always DYOR. Hope this helps
Pair: BTC/USDT
Direction: Long (Buy) – Dip Buy
Entry: $65,800 – $66,200
Stop Loss: $64,200
Take Profit: $70,000 → $71,000 → $72,000+
Risk: 1% max
Reason: $68K support zone hold + bounce possible
$BTC
$BTC $BNB
#BTC #bitcoin #Write2Earn #BinanceSquare #BinanceSquareFamily
Direction: Long (Buy) – Dip Buy
Entry: $65,800 – $66,200
Stop Loss: $64,200
Take Profit: $70,000 → $71,000 → $72,000+
Risk: 1% max
Reason: $68K support zone hold + bounce possible
$BTC
$BTC $BNB
#BTC #bitcoin #Write2Earn #BinanceSquare #BinanceSquareFamily
There has been a movement on Satoshi's Bitcoin wallet, fear sets in
Three days ago, everywhere you saw the screenshot of Satoshi's wallet that received 2.565 BTC
And people began to panic, but rest assured, it is not as alarming as it seems
Because on the wallet, we have several parts for transactions, but it's these two that will interest us here
The inflow in yellow and the outflow in red
The inflow is when Satoshi receives Bitcoin, and it happens often; you can verify it on Arkham io
The outflow is when there is a transfer that goes out of Satoshi's wallet to another wallet, and if this happens, then it's when you should really worry
Don't panic just at the sight of a screenshot, but always try to do some research
If this post has been useful to you, share, like, comment, and subscribe so you don't miss any of my analyses and publications..🎉🫡🚀🚀
#satoshiNakamato #bitcoin #ArkhamInsights
$BTC
Three days ago, everywhere you saw the screenshot of Satoshi's wallet that received 2.565 BTC
And people began to panic, but rest assured, it is not as alarming as it seems
Because on the wallet, we have several parts for transactions, but it's these two that will interest us here
The inflow in yellow and the outflow in red
The inflow is when Satoshi receives Bitcoin, and it happens often; you can verify it on Arkham io
The outflow is when there is a transfer that goes out of Satoshi's wallet to another wallet, and if this happens, then it's when you should really worry
Don't panic just at the sight of a screenshot, but always try to do some research
If this post has been useful to you, share, like, comment, and subscribe so you don't miss any of my analyses and publications..🎉🫡🚀🚀
#satoshiNakamato #bitcoin #ArkhamInsights
$BTC
I Just Listened to CZ's All-In Podcast. Here's What I Learned
I spent 90+ minutes listening to CZ's first major interview since getting out of prison.
The All-In Podcast dropped it yesterday, and honestly? I wasn't expecting much. I figured it'd be the usual crypto hype, carefully scripted PR answers, maybe some generic "#bitcoin to the moon" takes.
I was wrong.
CZ was... real. Honest. No filter.
And he said some things that completely changed how I'm thinking about this market.
The biggest one?
He thinks 2026 might break the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle.
Not a typical bear year. A continuation.
But that's just one piece. He also opened up about what prison was actually like, how the Trump pardon felt, why he's genuinely happy he doesn't run Binance anymore, and why he believes AI agents are going to become crypto's biggest users.
Let me break down what I picked up the stuff that actually matters.
What I Learned About His Prison Time
First, let's talk about where he's been.
CZ spent 4 months in federal prison after pleading guilty to anti-money laundering violations. The settlement? $4.3 billion. One of the largest in corporate history.
What Prison Was Actually Like
I was curious about this part. What's it like when you go from running a multi-billion dollar exchange to... federal prison?
He was surprisingly open about it.
On the social hierarchy:
"There are levels. Some people have been there 10+ years. You respect seniority."
He talked about how there's a whole social structure inside. You don't just show up and act like you're CZ, crypto billionaire. You're just another inmate.
On the mental side:
"I went in knowing it was finite. 4 months. Some guys don't have a release date. That's a different kind of hell."
This hit me. Knowing you have an end date changes everything. Imagine being in there without knowing when or if you're getting out.
The unexpected part:
"I had time to think. No distractions. No pressure. Just... space."
He actually described prison as mentally clarifying.
Think about it: when you're running Binance, your brain never stops. Emails, crises, decisions 24/7.
Prison? Forced pause.
"I actually got a lot of mental clarity," he said.
I wasn't expecting that take.
The Trump Pardon Question
Then the hosts asked about the pardon.
Trump granted CZ clemency in January 2025, cutting his sentence.
How did it feel?
"Relief. Not celebration. Just... relief."
I appreciated the honesty there. He didn't try to make it some triumphant moment.
The pay-to-play question:
The hosts directly asked: "Was there a deal? Did you pay for this?"
CZ's answer: "Absolutely not."
He said he had zero contact with the Trump administration about it. It came as a surprise.
"People want to create conspiracies. There was no deal. I didn't lobby for it. It happened."
So why did Trump do it?
CZ thinks it's part of a bigger shift in how the U.S. government sees crypto.
"The tide has turned. Crypto isn't the enemy anymore. Regulators are realizing they need to work WITH the industry, not against it."
That part made sense to me. The political winds have definitely changed since 2023.
He's Actually Happy He Doesn't Run Binance Anymore
This was the quote that stuck with me most:
"I am actually grateful that I don't have to run Binance anymore. The mental load is gone."
Wait, what?
This is the guy who built Binance from zero to the largest crypto exchange on the planet.
And he's... relieved to not run it?
Yeah. He is.
His explanation hit different:
"Money is just one thread in a spiderweb. If you pull it too hard, the rest of the web family, health, peace snaps."
That's real.
Running Binance was consuming him. Every waking moment. Every decision. Every crisis.
Now? He's free.
"I'm a normal dude," he said. "You don't need to be super smart to be successful, just consistent and a bit lucky."
I found that refreshing. No ego. No "I'm a genius" flex. Just honesty.
The 2026 Prediction That Got My Attention
Okay, now the market stuff.
How Bitcoin Cycles Usually Work
Historically, Bitcoin follows this pattern:
Year 1: Bull market, new ATH
Year 2: Crash, bear market
Year 3: Bottoming, accumulation
Year 4: Recovery, new ATH
Then repeat.
So:
2021: Peaked at $69K
2022: Crashed to $15.5K
2023: Bottomed around $25K-$30K
2024: Recovery, then new ATH at $126K
2026: ??? (Should be a bear year, right?)
CZ Says: Maybe Not This Time
Here's where it got interesting.
CZ thinks 2026 could break the cycle.
Not a typical bear year. Maybe a continuation.
His reasoning:
1. The ETFs changed everything.
"The ETFs provide a floor. We're not going to see 80% crashes like we used to."
He explained that institutional money doesn't panic. When Bitcoin drops, they buy more.
Retail? We panic sell.
Institutions? They accumulate.
2. Countries are buying Bitcoin now.
El Salvador. Bhutan. Probably others we don't know about yet.
Nation-states don't dump in bear markets. They're long-term holders.
3. Retail hasn't even FOMO'd yet.
"Institutions are in. But retail? They're not euphoric yet. That's still coming."
His point: If retail piles in AFTER institutions have already positioned, the cycle extends longer.
What a Supercycle Would Look Like
Instead of:
2026: Crash to $50K2027: Bottom and recover
Maybe:
2026: Consolidate at $150K2027: Continue to $300K
That's a supercycle.
Do I Buy It?
Honestly? I'm torn.
The ETFs ARE different. We've never had $50+ billion in institutional vehicles before.
And if countries are quietly stacking, that's new too.
But... cycles exist for a reason. Euphoria builds. Leverage piles up. Then everything crashes.
I think CZ might be right that crashes will be shallower (50% instead of 80%).
But cycles ending completely? That feels optimistic.
We'll see.
His $200K Bitcoin Take
The hosts tried to get CZ to make price predictions.
He mostly dodged.
"I don't do 3month, 6month calls. That's just noise."
But long-term?
He's sure Bitcoin hits $200,000.
"It's not IF. It's WHEN. 5-10 years."
Why He's So Confident
I wrote down his reasoning:
1. Math is simple.
21 million Bitcoin max. Demand keeps growing. Price has to go up.
2. We're still early.
"Institutions just started getting in. This isn't the middle. It's the beginning."
3. Fiat keeps failing.
"When national currencies collapse, people look for alternatives. Bitcoin is that."
He didn't give a timeline. But his conviction was clear.
$200K is coming. Just... eventually.
The AI + Crypto Idea That Blew My Mind
CZ's not just sitting around post-Binance.
He's building Giggle Academy (free education platform) and investing in AI + Crypto.
And he made a prediction that I can't stop thinking about:
AI Agents Will Use Crypto More Than Humans
Here's the thesis he laid out:
AI agents need money to operate.
To:
Pay for computing powerBuy dataHire servicesTransact with other AI agents
But they can't use traditional banks.
Why?
Can't open bank accounts (no KYC/identity)Can't pass verificationCan't hold credit cards
So what's the solution?
Crypto.
"AI agents need native digital currency. They CAN'T use banks. Crypto is their only option."
Why This Actually Makes Sense
Think about it:
If millions of AI agents are operating globally, all needing to transact, they can't exactly walk into a Chase branch and open an account.
They need:
Digital wallets (check)Instant transactions (check)No permission required (check)
That's crypto.
What This Means
If CZ's right, crypto adoption won't be about convincing people.
It'll be about AI agents using it by default because they have no other choice.
That's infrastructure-level demand.
Not speculative. Not optional.
Required.
"We won't need to sell people on crypto. AI will just use it," he said.
I'm still processing this one. But it makes way more sense than I expected.
His Brutal Take on Meme Coins
The hosts brought up meme coins.
CZ didn't sugarcoat it.
"90% of them will fail."
Why Most Will Die
"Most have no utility. No culture. No real community. Just speculation."
He said only the ones with actual cultural staying power survive.
Example: $DOGE coin.
"Doge has been around for years. Real community. Cultural value. That's not going away."
But the random dog coin from last week?
"Gone in 6 months."
What I Took From This
If you're holding meme coins, ask yourself:
Will people care about this in 2 years?Does it have real community beyond just pumping?Or is it pure hype?
If it's just hype, he's saying: take profits now.
I appreciated the honesty. No shilling. Just reality.
Regulation: The Fragmented Mess
CZ was asked about the state of crypto regulation globally.
His take: It's a mess. And it's getting worse.
The problem:
Every country has different rules.
What's legal in the U.S. is illegal in China.
What's allowed in Europe is banned in India.
What flies in Dubai gets you arrested in Nigeria.
The result?
Crypto companies are drowning in compliance costs.
"You need a different legal team for every jurisdiction. It's unsustainable."
The solution?
CZ advocates for "Regulatory Passporting" similar to the EU's MiCA framework.
"If you get licensed in one region, it should apply across multiple countries. Like the EU passport system."
Will it happen?
"It's the only realistic path forward. Otherwise, only giant companies can afford compliance. That kills innovation."
Binance's Future: Survival Over Growth
CZ stepped down as Binance CEO as part of the DOJ settlement.
New leadership. New structure. New phase.
What's Binance's strategy now?
"Survival over growth."
CZ was candid:
"The hyper-growth days are over. Now it's about compliance, stability, and surviving long-term."
Binance is transitioning from a "move fast and break things" startup to a traditional corporate structure.
Why?
Because global regulators demand it.
Does CZ support this?
Yes.
"Binance needs to mature. That means slower growth, but more stability. I'm okay with that."
He genuinely seems relieved to not be dealing with it anymore.
ETFs: The "Floor" That Changed Everything
One of CZ's most important points:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are preventing the 80% crashes of the past.
How?
"ETFs provide a floor. When price drops, institutions BUY. They don't panic sell like retail."
Historical crashes:
2018: -85% (from $20K to $3K)2022: -78% (from $69K to $15.5K)
Current crash:
2026: -46% (from $126K to $67K... so far)
The difference?
#ETFs .
"Institutions see $70K Bitcoin and think 'discount.' Retail sees it and thinks 'it's going to zero.'"
That behavioral difference creates a price floor.
The implication:
Bear markets might be shallower going forward.
Not 80% crashes. Maybe 50-60% max.
But they might also last longer.
Instead of a quick capitulation wick, we get a slow grind down as institutions accumulate.
What I'm Taking Away From All This
After listening to the full 90 minutes, here's what stuck with me:
1. The 2026 Supercycle Idea
CZ thinks the traditional 4-year cycle might break because:
ETFs provide a floorCountries are buyingRetail hasn't peaked yet
My take: Possible. But I'm not betting my whole portfolio on it. Cycles have a way of reasserting themselves.
2. Bitcoin to $200K
He's certain. "When, not if." 5-10 years.
My take: Seems reasonable long-term. Just don't expect it next month.
3. AI Agents + Crypto
AI needs crypto because they can't use banks.
My take: This is the idea I can't stop thinking about. If it plays out, it's a game-changer.
4. 90% of Meme Coins Die
Only ones with real culture survive.
My take: He's right. History will prove it.
5. ETFs Changed Everything
They prevent 80% crashes.
My take: Already seeing it. Current crash is 46%, not 80%.
6. He's Happier Now
"Grateful I don't run Binance anymore."
My take: Money isn't everything. Mental peace matters.
My Bottom Line
Honestly? This was one of the most refreshing crypto interviews I've heard in a while.
No hype. No shilling. Just a guy who's been through hell and come out with clarity.
His message:
Crypto's future is bright (institutions, AI, adoption)But it won't be a straight lineMost garbage will die (meme coins)Bitcoin will hit $200K eventually2026 might surprise us
Whether you agree or not, CZ's thought deeply about where this is all going.
And I think his insights are worth paying attention to.
If you listened to the podcast too what did you pick up?
Do you buy the supercycle thesis? And what about the AI + crypto idea? Let me know what you think.
The All-In Podcast dropped it yesterday, and honestly? I wasn't expecting much. I figured it'd be the usual crypto hype, carefully scripted PR answers, maybe some generic "#bitcoin to the moon" takes.
I was wrong.
CZ was... real. Honest. No filter.
And he said some things that completely changed how I'm thinking about this market.
The biggest one?
He thinks 2026 might break the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle.
Not a typical bear year. A continuation.
But that's just one piece. He also opened up about what prison was actually like, how the Trump pardon felt, why he's genuinely happy he doesn't run Binance anymore, and why he believes AI agents are going to become crypto's biggest users.
Let me break down what I picked up the stuff that actually matters.
What I Learned About His Prison Time
First, let's talk about where he's been.
CZ spent 4 months in federal prison after pleading guilty to anti-money laundering violations. The settlement? $4.3 billion. One of the largest in corporate history.
What Prison Was Actually Like
I was curious about this part. What's it like when you go from running a multi-billion dollar exchange to... federal prison?
He was surprisingly open about it.
On the social hierarchy:
"There are levels. Some people have been there 10+ years. You respect seniority."
He talked about how there's a whole social structure inside. You don't just show up and act like you're CZ, crypto billionaire. You're just another inmate.
On the mental side:
"I went in knowing it was finite. 4 months. Some guys don't have a release date. That's a different kind of hell."
This hit me. Knowing you have an end date changes everything. Imagine being in there without knowing when or if you're getting out.
The unexpected part:
"I had time to think. No distractions. No pressure. Just... space."
He actually described prison as mentally clarifying.
Think about it: when you're running Binance, your brain never stops. Emails, crises, decisions 24/7.
Prison? Forced pause.
"I actually got a lot of mental clarity," he said.
I wasn't expecting that take.
The Trump Pardon Question
Then the hosts asked about the pardon.
Trump granted CZ clemency in January 2025, cutting his sentence.
How did it feel?
"Relief. Not celebration. Just... relief."
I appreciated the honesty there. He didn't try to make it some triumphant moment.
The pay-to-play question:
The hosts directly asked: "Was there a deal? Did you pay for this?"
CZ's answer: "Absolutely not."
He said he had zero contact with the Trump administration about it. It came as a surprise.
"People want to create conspiracies. There was no deal. I didn't lobby for it. It happened."
So why did Trump do it?
CZ thinks it's part of a bigger shift in how the U.S. government sees crypto.
"The tide has turned. Crypto isn't the enemy anymore. Regulators are realizing they need to work WITH the industry, not against it."
That part made sense to me. The political winds have definitely changed since 2023.
He's Actually Happy He Doesn't Run Binance Anymore
This was the quote that stuck with me most:
"I am actually grateful that I don't have to run Binance anymore. The mental load is gone."
Wait, what?
This is the guy who built Binance from zero to the largest crypto exchange on the planet.
And he's... relieved to not run it?
Yeah. He is.
His explanation hit different:
"Money is just one thread in a spiderweb. If you pull it too hard, the rest of the web family, health, peace snaps."
That's real.
Running Binance was consuming him. Every waking moment. Every decision. Every crisis.
Now? He's free.
"I'm a normal dude," he said. "You don't need to be super smart to be successful, just consistent and a bit lucky."
I found that refreshing. No ego. No "I'm a genius" flex. Just honesty.
The 2026 Prediction That Got My Attention
Okay, now the market stuff.
How Bitcoin Cycles Usually Work
Historically, Bitcoin follows this pattern:
Year 1: Bull market, new ATH
Year 2: Crash, bear market
Year 3: Bottoming, accumulation
Year 4: Recovery, new ATH
Then repeat.
So:
2021: Peaked at $69K
2022: Crashed to $15.5K
2023: Bottomed around $25K-$30K
2024: Recovery, then new ATH at $126K
2026: ??? (Should be a bear year, right?)
CZ Says: Maybe Not This Time
Here's where it got interesting.
CZ thinks 2026 could break the cycle.
Not a typical bear year. Maybe a continuation.
His reasoning:
1. The ETFs changed everything.
"The ETFs provide a floor. We're not going to see 80% crashes like we used to."
He explained that institutional money doesn't panic. When Bitcoin drops, they buy more.
Retail? We panic sell.
Institutions? They accumulate.
2. Countries are buying Bitcoin now.
El Salvador. Bhutan. Probably others we don't know about yet.
Nation-states don't dump in bear markets. They're long-term holders.
3. Retail hasn't even FOMO'd yet.
"Institutions are in. But retail? They're not euphoric yet. That's still coming."
His point: If retail piles in AFTER institutions have already positioned, the cycle extends longer.
What a Supercycle Would Look Like
Instead of:
2026: Crash to $50K2027: Bottom and recover
Maybe:
2026: Consolidate at $150K2027: Continue to $300K
That's a supercycle.
Do I Buy It?
Honestly? I'm torn.
The ETFs ARE different. We've never had $50+ billion in institutional vehicles before.
And if countries are quietly stacking, that's new too.
But... cycles exist for a reason. Euphoria builds. Leverage piles up. Then everything crashes.
I think CZ might be right that crashes will be shallower (50% instead of 80%).
But cycles ending completely? That feels optimistic.
We'll see.
His $200K Bitcoin Take
The hosts tried to get CZ to make price predictions.
He mostly dodged.
"I don't do 3month, 6month calls. That's just noise."
But long-term?
He's sure Bitcoin hits $200,000.
"It's not IF. It's WHEN. 5-10 years."
Why He's So Confident
I wrote down his reasoning:
1. Math is simple.
21 million Bitcoin max. Demand keeps growing. Price has to go up.
2. We're still early.
"Institutions just started getting in. This isn't the middle. It's the beginning."
3. Fiat keeps failing.
"When national currencies collapse, people look for alternatives. Bitcoin is that."
He didn't give a timeline. But his conviction was clear.
$200K is coming. Just... eventually.
The AI + Crypto Idea That Blew My Mind
CZ's not just sitting around post-Binance.
He's building Giggle Academy (free education platform) and investing in AI + Crypto.
And he made a prediction that I can't stop thinking about:
AI Agents Will Use Crypto More Than Humans
Here's the thesis he laid out:
AI agents need money to operate.
To:
Pay for computing powerBuy dataHire servicesTransact with other AI agents
But they can't use traditional banks.
Why?
Can't open bank accounts (no KYC/identity)Can't pass verificationCan't hold credit cards
So what's the solution?
Crypto.
"AI agents need native digital currency. They CAN'T use banks. Crypto is their only option."
Why This Actually Makes Sense
Think about it:
If millions of AI agents are operating globally, all needing to transact, they can't exactly walk into a Chase branch and open an account.
They need:
Digital wallets (check)Instant transactions (check)No permission required (check)
That's crypto.
What This Means
If CZ's right, crypto adoption won't be about convincing people.
It'll be about AI agents using it by default because they have no other choice.
That's infrastructure-level demand.
Not speculative. Not optional.
Required.
"We won't need to sell people on crypto. AI will just use it," he said.
I'm still processing this one. But it makes way more sense than I expected.
His Brutal Take on Meme Coins
The hosts brought up meme coins.
CZ didn't sugarcoat it.
"90% of them will fail."
Why Most Will Die
"Most have no utility. No culture. No real community. Just speculation."
He said only the ones with actual cultural staying power survive.
Example: $DOGE coin.
"Doge has been around for years. Real community. Cultural value. That's not going away."
But the random dog coin from last week?
"Gone in 6 months."
What I Took From This
If you're holding meme coins, ask yourself:
Will people care about this in 2 years?Does it have real community beyond just pumping?Or is it pure hype?
If it's just hype, he's saying: take profits now.
I appreciated the honesty. No shilling. Just reality.
Regulation: The Fragmented Mess
CZ was asked about the state of crypto regulation globally.
His take: It's a mess. And it's getting worse.
The problem:
Every country has different rules.
What's legal in the U.S. is illegal in China.
What's allowed in Europe is banned in India.
What flies in Dubai gets you arrested in Nigeria.
The result?
Crypto companies are drowning in compliance costs.
"You need a different legal team for every jurisdiction. It's unsustainable."
The solution?
CZ advocates for "Regulatory Passporting" similar to the EU's MiCA framework.
"If you get licensed in one region, it should apply across multiple countries. Like the EU passport system."
Will it happen?
"It's the only realistic path forward. Otherwise, only giant companies can afford compliance. That kills innovation."
Binance's Future: Survival Over Growth
CZ stepped down as Binance CEO as part of the DOJ settlement.
New leadership. New structure. New phase.
What's Binance's strategy now?
"Survival over growth."
CZ was candid:
"The hyper-growth days are over. Now it's about compliance, stability, and surviving long-term."
Binance is transitioning from a "move fast and break things" startup to a traditional corporate structure.
Why?
Because global regulators demand it.
Does CZ support this?
Yes.
"Binance needs to mature. That means slower growth, but more stability. I'm okay with that."
He genuinely seems relieved to not be dealing with it anymore.
ETFs: The "Floor" That Changed Everything
One of CZ's most important points:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are preventing the 80% crashes of the past.
How?
"ETFs provide a floor. When price drops, institutions BUY. They don't panic sell like retail."
Historical crashes:
2018: -85% (from $20K to $3K)2022: -78% (from $69K to $15.5K)
Current crash:
2026: -46% (from $126K to $67K... so far)
The difference?
#ETFs .
"Institutions see $70K Bitcoin and think 'discount.' Retail sees it and thinks 'it's going to zero.'"
That behavioral difference creates a price floor.
The implication:
Bear markets might be shallower going forward.
Not 80% crashes. Maybe 50-60% max.
But they might also last longer.
Instead of a quick capitulation wick, we get a slow grind down as institutions accumulate.
What I'm Taking Away From All This
After listening to the full 90 minutes, here's what stuck with me:
1. The 2026 Supercycle Idea
CZ thinks the traditional 4-year cycle might break because:
ETFs provide a floorCountries are buyingRetail hasn't peaked yet
My take: Possible. But I'm not betting my whole portfolio on it. Cycles have a way of reasserting themselves.
2. Bitcoin to $200K
He's certain. "When, not if." 5-10 years.
My take: Seems reasonable long-term. Just don't expect it next month.
3. AI Agents + Crypto
AI needs crypto because they can't use banks.
My take: This is the idea I can't stop thinking about. If it plays out, it's a game-changer.
4. 90% of Meme Coins Die
Only ones with real culture survive.
My take: He's right. History will prove it.
5. ETFs Changed Everything
They prevent 80% crashes.
My take: Already seeing it. Current crash is 46%, not 80%.
6. He's Happier Now
"Grateful I don't run Binance anymore."
My take: Money isn't everything. Mental peace matters.
My Bottom Line
Honestly? This was one of the most refreshing crypto interviews I've heard in a while.
No hype. No shilling. Just a guy who's been through hell and come out with clarity.
His message:
Crypto's future is bright (institutions, AI, adoption)But it won't be a straight lineMost garbage will die (meme coins)Bitcoin will hit $200K eventually2026 might surprise us
Whether you agree or not, CZ's thought deeply about where this is all going.
And I think his insights are worth paying attention to.
If you listened to the podcast too what did you pick up?
Do you buy the supercycle thesis? And what about the AI + crypto idea? Let me know what you think.
📉 Euphoria is fading — the crypto market is returning to reality.
• Bitcoin has pulled back to lows — overheated expectations are cooling off. • The CLARITY bill is stuck in the Senate — they can't come to an agreement, meaning the rules of the game remain unclear.
The Fed plans to launch special accounts for crypto and fintech companies.
👉 This will simplify access to the U.S. payment system. 👉 But without interest and without emergency liquidity — there is no full integration into the financial system.
Conclusion: The market is transitioning from a hype phase to a maturity phase. Less emotion — more regulation.
Not financial advice.
#crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews
• Bitcoin has pulled back to lows — overheated expectations are cooling off. • The CLARITY bill is stuck in the Senate — they can't come to an agreement, meaning the rules of the game remain unclear.
The Fed plans to launch special accounts for crypto and fintech companies.
👉 This will simplify access to the U.S. payment system. 👉 But without interest and without emergency liquidity — there is no full integration into the financial system.
Conclusion: The market is transitioning from a hype phase to a maturity phase. Less emotion — more regulation.
Not financial advice.
#crypto #bitcoin #cryptonews
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