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Avalanche ($AVAX ) may be approaching an important technical inflection point after pushing above a major descending trendline that has capped price action for several weeks. The broader structure remains bearish, defined by consistent lower highs and lower lows, but this breakout represents the first meaningful signal that downside momentum could be weakening.
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As of February 11, 2026, AVAX is trading near $9, significantly below its previous cycle highs, yet beginning to show tentative recovery signals as market participants look for confirmation.

Technical Analysis and Breakout Details
For weeks, AVAX traded under a clearly defined descending trendline that acted as dynamic resistance and reinforced the prevailing downtrend. The recent move above that level marks a potential structural shift. However, the breakout alone is not enough. Price must now hold above the former resistance and successfully flip it into support to validate a change in momentum.
If buyers sustain control, a short-term relief rally could target the 50-day moving average around $10.65, followed by prior supply zones in the $12 to $13 range. Failure to defend the breakout area would likely result in another lower high, keeping the broader downtrend intact.
Momentum indicators offer mixed readings. The RSI sits in oversold territory around 28 to 30, suggesting room for a bounce, while the MACD continues to reflect bearish pressure. Immediate support lies between $8.65 and $9.11, with resistance levels near $9.44 and $10.52.
Adding a layer of short-term uncertainty, approximately 1.67 million AVAX tokens, worth around $15 million and representing about 0.32 percent of circulating supply, are scheduled for unlock. Depending on market behavior, this could introduce additional volatility.

Market Context and Price Projections
Avalanche has declined roughly 35 percent over the past month and remains far below its 2021 peak levels. Despite this, some analysts maintain a constructive outlook. Short-term projections for late February 2026 suggest potential upside toward $15.50 to $16.50 if key resistance levels are decisively cleared.
Longer-term forecasts are divided. More optimistic models see AVAX reclaiming levels near $20 by year-end, while bearish scenarios warn of a possible retracement toward $6 if broader market weakness resumes.
On the fundamental side, network activity has shown resilience. Growth in tokenized real-world assets on Avalanche expanded significantly throughout 2025, and usage metrics have seen periodic spikes. Technically, AVAX is rebounding from long-term support within a broader triangle formation, with some analysts speculating that sustained momentum could eventually open the door to higher macro targets.
Community and Analyst Reactions
Market sentiment remains cautiously balanced. Some traders highlight tightening consolidation ranges and the formation of higher lows as constructive developments. Others view the recent bounce as corrective within a larger downtrend, warning that a rejection near $10 to $12 could lead to renewed downside.
Oversold conditions have led certain participants to describe current levels as historical accumulation zones, though confirmation is still required.
Meanwhile, Avalanche’s ecosystem continues to expand, with initiatives such as developer hackathons and ongoing innovation in subnet architecture reinforcing its long-term positioning among leading layer 1 networks.

Background on Avalanche
Launched in 2020, Avalanche is a high-performance blockchain platform recognized for its subnet model, which allows for customizable and scalable network deployments. With a circulating supply of roughly 400 million tokens and a market capitalization in the $3 to $4 billion range at current prices, AVAX remains one of the more prominent layer 1 assets despite recent market weakness.
Its emphasis on institutional adoption and tokenized real-world assets continues to differentiate it within the competitive smart contract landscape.
Implications for Investors
The break above the descending trendline offers a potential early signal of trend stabilization. Bulls must defend current levels and absorb any selling pressure linked to the token unlock to maintain upside momentum.
For traders in emerging markets where crypto participation continues to grow, AVAX’s relatively low price point and scalable infrastructure may present an attractive risk to reward profile, provided risk management remains disciplined.
The coming sessions will be decisive. Sustained volume, successful support retests, and strength above key resistance zones will determine whether this move develops into a broader recovery. Optimistic scenarios target the mid $15 range in the near term, while bears remain focused on the possibility of renewed downside.
As 2026 unfolds, Avalanche stands at a technical crossroads, making it one of the more closely watched layer 1 assets in the current market cycle.