TradablePatterns
Trades top 50 mkt cap coins based on technical analysis. Have published daily TA since 2014 as seen on Bloomberg, LSEG, Factset, Interactive Brokers & Barchart.
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#TrumpTariffs
#Ethereum ($ETH #ETHUSD )
ETHUSD continues to underperform BTCUSD, and with the strong downward momentum as seen by the still downsloping weekly RSI and MACD (in the weekly chart below), could slide further in the next month or so before finding a more sustainable tradable bottom from the November high or to the June 2022 low. Note that the ETHUSD bull market that began June 2022 and ended March 2024 has nearly completely unwound. Nevertheless, some short term relief could arrive in
the next day or so as risky assets are increasingly short-term oversold, with odds rising for a minimum multi-week Dead Cat Bounce to begin as early as Wednesday with the release of the US FOMC meeting minutes, Thursday with the US CPI and
unemployment claims, and Friday with the US PPI and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Weekly
#Ethereum ($ETH #ETHUSD )
ETHUSD continues to underperform BTCUSD, and with the strong downward momentum as seen by the still downsloping weekly RSI and MACD (in the weekly chart below), could slide further in the next month or so before finding a more sustainable tradable bottom from the November high or to the June 2022 low. Note that the ETHUSD bull market that began June 2022 and ended March 2024 has nearly completely unwound. Nevertheless, some short term relief could arrive in
the next day or so as risky assets are increasingly short-term oversold, with odds rising for a minimum multi-week Dead Cat Bounce to begin as early as Wednesday with the release of the US FOMC meeting minutes, Thursday with the US CPI and
unemployment claims, and Friday with the US PPI and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Weekly
#TrumpTariffs
April 7, 2025
Global Macro
Risky assets have gapped down to start the week with the market digesting the historically high US tariff levels announced by the Trump administration late last week. The tariffs are a complex discussion beyond the scope of today’s piece, but a herculean effort to rebalance global trade with the US suffering increasingly unsustainable massive trade deficits with many major trading partners over the last few decades. There have been many benefactors among US MNCs to the offshoring trend, but also many losers principally among US manufacturers (remaining onshore). Time will tell whether this strategy of re-onshoring of some manufacturing into the US will work over time, but in the past few months, the market has spoken with its fears over what the brakes on the status quo means insofar as impact to global trade flows and profits in the short to mid term. As with other times of severe risk off sentiment, correlations across asset classes rise and these past few months have been no different.
#Bitcoin ($BTC )
For the next few days, to the relief of bulls or those playing a short-term bounce, BTCUSD should be seeing some tentative support as BTCUSD is now testing the 38.2% Fib retrace of the massive December 2022 to January 2025 bull market (as can be seen in the weekly chart below) along with the highs of March and June 2024. BTCUSD is likely to slide further to the 50% Fib of the same bull market (coinciding roughly with the peaks of April and November 2021) by year end but odds are rising for a minimum multi-week Dead Cat Bounce to begin as early as Wednesday with the release of the US FOMC meeting minutes, Thursday with the US CPI and unemployment claims, and Friday with the US PPI and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Weekly
April 7, 2025
Global Macro
Risky assets have gapped down to start the week with the market digesting the historically high US tariff levels announced by the Trump administration late last week. The tariffs are a complex discussion beyond the scope of today’s piece, but a herculean effort to rebalance global trade with the US suffering increasingly unsustainable massive trade deficits with many major trading partners over the last few decades. There have been many benefactors among US MNCs to the offshoring trend, but also many losers principally among US manufacturers (remaining onshore). Time will tell whether this strategy of re-onshoring of some manufacturing into the US will work over time, but in the past few months, the market has spoken with its fears over what the brakes on the status quo means insofar as impact to global trade flows and profits in the short to mid term. As with other times of severe risk off sentiment, correlations across asset classes rise and these past few months have been no different.
#Bitcoin ($BTC )
For the next few days, to the relief of bulls or those playing a short-term bounce, BTCUSD should be seeing some tentative support as BTCUSD is now testing the 38.2% Fib retrace of the massive December 2022 to January 2025 bull market (as can be seen in the weekly chart below) along with the highs of March and June 2024. BTCUSD is likely to slide further to the 50% Fib of the same bull market (coinciding roughly with the peaks of April and November 2021) by year end but odds are rising for a minimum multi-week Dead Cat Bounce to begin as early as Wednesday with the release of the US FOMC meeting minutes, Thursday with the US CPI and unemployment claims, and Friday with the US PPI and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
Weekly
$BTC #bitcoin comments ahead of highly anticipated #cpi 830am EST w/ caution based lgly on #Nasdaq100 #TechnicalAnalysis longer term #ta based on mthly charts
#BTCUSD appears ready to roll over on wkly timeframe w/ a lower Jan high vs Dec high increasingly likely w/ current wkly Gravestone unable to reclaim the record high. Note the rejection as well in Dec at the uptrend resistance connecting highs of Jan, Mar'23 and Mar, Dec'24. Wkly Stochastics is tiring from overbought level w/ wkly MACD trying to -vely cross. Watch for #Nasdaq100 weakness to lead $BTC lower.
Although #BTCUSD is starting 2025 w/ a green January candle, it remains at moderate risk of forming a major top around the upcoming Trump inauguration Jan 20, where odds rise for a sell on news scenario as traders lock in strong gains since the Trump November win.
W/ the #S&P500 showing signs of fatigue on its red January candle w/ the monthly MACD trying to negatively cross, it'll be interesting to see what another bout of risk-off on Jan 20 could do to $BTC and what that may mean for #BTCdominance .
Let me know your thoughts on what are your favourite #Alts in the meantime!
W/ the #S&P500 showing signs of fatigue on its red January candle w/ the monthly MACD trying to negatively cross, it'll be interesting to see what another bout of risk-off on Jan 20 could do to $BTC and what that may mean for #BTCdominance .
Let me know your thoughts on what are your favourite #Alts in the meantime!
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