TheCryptoDegen

Bitcoin had a feature in 2009 so dangerous Satoshi himself deleted it after one user pointed it out

In the original version of Bitcoin you could send coins directly to someone's IP address

There was no wallet address needed and even worse, your computer would connect to theirs to send the coins through

That meant anyone could see your IP, locate your machine and try to attack it just by sending you Bitcoin

On January 14, 2009 Satoshi decided to test it himself and emailed an early miner named Dustin Trammell asking for his IP

Trammell replied and actually sent it to him

A few minutes later Satoshi connected and sent him 25 BTC with a message that said "Hello"

Trammell answered him with a warning that the feature was insecure and within weeks Satoshi deleted it from Bitcoin entirely

Those 25 BTC would be worth $1.86 million today

Mt. Gox is preparing to repay its users from its 2014 collapse

Almost $1 BILLION worth of Bitcoin moved to a new wallet

Market is pricing in the possibility that they will sell

This is really strange.

Bitcoin dominance is crashing hard and just hit a 58-day low of 58.85%.

While Altcoins/Bitcoin just hit an 8-month high and Alts are now up 23% against BTC in the last 28 days.

Altcoins are showing insane strength during this BTC dump from $83k to $69k.

SILK ROAD: 15 years ago today, Gawker writer Adrian Chen posted the first mainstream exposé of the Silk Road. Silk Road's membership jumped from roughly a thousand users to over ten thousand almost overnight. $BTC's price was trading around $9.90 on June 1 and would spike to $29.58 within days as demand surged from new users flooding into the ecosystem.

INSANE:

Solo Bitcoin miner mines an entire Bitcoin block worth $231,000

This is a kind of rare scenario

Iran Just Turned Bitcoin Into a Sovereignty Trade

Hormuz is not just an oil chokepoint.

It is a monetary chokepoint.

Roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids moves through one narrow strait.

Iran pressures shipping.

The U.S. pressures Iran’s oil, banking, and crypto rails.

Treasury says Iran-linked actors have used digital assets to evade sanctions.

Bessent reportedly says the U.S. has seized roughly $1B in Iranian-linked crypto.

That is the signal.

When the dollar system is open, states use it.

When it is weaponized, states route around it.

When wallets are custodial, governments grab them.

When keys are sovereign, settlement becomes harder to stop.

Bitcoin is not a war trade.

It is a sovereignty trade.

JUST IN: Michael Saylor hints at buying more Bitcoin.

"Working ₿etter."

$HYPE just hit a new all-time high of $70, adding $11 BILLION in market cap in 2026.

Why HYPE has been pumping?

- 🇺🇸 The US CFTC has approved the first “US perpetual futures,” the same model HYPE is built on, potentially opening access to a multi-trillion-dollar market.

-The platform makes around $900M–$1B in real fees with only 11 employees.

-About 98% of trading fees are used to buy back and remove it from supply, with buybacks already surpassing $2 BILLION

-$100M in inflows since ETF has launched, with funds like Bitwise also using fees to buy HYPE.
$HYPE

BTC timing problem:

2024 and 2025 show the same trap.

Best days: scattered.
Worst days: scattered.
Often in the same window.

March had near +10% upside days and near -9% downside days.

To dodge the -9%, you often miss the +10%.

That is why BTC is hard to trade.

The market does not label the important days in advance.

Bitcoin does not pay for precision.

It pays for presence.

$BTC: -16% downside. +255% modeled upside.

Spot: $74K
Modeled floor: $62K
5-year modeled floor: $262K

Downside to floor: -16%
Upside to 5Y floor: +255%

Spot/floor: 1.19×
Floor CAGR: ~33%/yr

Decision: accumulate

Why?

Because the model is not pricing “low risk.”

It is pricing asymmetric risk.

The risk is waiting while the floor compounds.

#DYOR*

Missing 10 days turns Bitcoin from +90% to -25%.

That is an important lesson

2020–2025 data:

Median buy & hold return: +90%

Median return if you missed the best 10 days each year: -25%

Damage: 115 percentage points

2 of 6 positive years flipped negative.

The hard part of Bitcoin is not volatility.

It is staying in the game when the next big move looks impossible.

How Bitcoin works in a single image.

BTC: $75K Fear vs. an $800K 10-Year Floor

Short-term:
Spot: $75K
30d realized vol: 26%
Funding: 2.8% APR
Dealer GEX: +$19M
30d risk reversal: -4.46%

Puts are richer than calls.
This is defensive positioning.

The options market is pinned near $75K, with fear priced below and resistance near $80K.

Zoom out.
Spot: $75K
CQSI trend: $112K
Power-law trend: $132K
Regime: oversold

At 90 days, the model is noise.
At 365 days, structure starts beating the random walk.
It is a long-duration scarcity/adoption machine.

The deepest number:
Today’s p10 floor: ~$62K
10-year p10 floor: ~$800K
10-year trend: ~$1.73M

So the market is pricing fear over the next few weeks while the structural floor is compounding for the next decade.

That is the asymmetry.

"Money's so broken and so centralized that the control system has to fool us, has to have us believe something to extract more and more and more."

"Because the money has changed, everything else changes." JEFF BOOTH

Bitcoin Real-Options Framework: When to Buy, Hold, or Sell

Assumptions:
Spot / strike: $77,000 / $77,000
Volatility: 40%
Beta: 5.7
Horizon: 5 years
Buy threshold: 16.0%/yr
Lattice: u = 1.4918x, d = 0.6703x, p = 45.1%

Model output:
Floor today: $61,438
Spot / floor: 1.25x
5-year floor: $259,418
5Y floor / today floor: 4.22x
Entry Expected Return: 28.1%/yr
Floor CAGR: 33.4%/yr

Decision:
Accumulate.
Deploy.
Continue.

Why?
Entry Expected Return = 28.1%
Buy threshold = 16.0%
Excess edge = +12.1 percentage points

The floor is rising faster than the hurdle rate.
That is the key.

Cheap alone is not enough.

Cheap + broken floor = trap.
Cheap + rising floor = convexity.

Price is the headline.
The floor is the signal.
Continuation value is the edge.

#DYOR
#Bitcoin

$ASTEROID casually doing $20,000,000 volume on a regular day without a single tier 1 exchange listing

Majority of this volume is originating from SPOT markets

This the type of metrics that gets your listed on Binance / Coinbase / OKX

Bitcoin is stuck in a short-term box.

Spot: $76.9K
Put wall: $75K
Gamma flip: $77.4K
Call wall: $80K
Funding: 0.76% APR

That is not a euphoric market.

That is a market hedged, cautious, and pinned.

Power-law trend: $131K
Power-law z-score: -0.83

Bitcoin is trading well below its long-term structure.

Historically, this zone has produced:

1Y median CAGR: +125%
2Y median CAGR: +100%
3Y median CAGR: +109%
7Y median CAGR: +73%

Short term, BTC trades like risk tech.

Long term, it reprices fixed supply against adoption, security, liquidity, and time.

That is the disconnect.

The market is watching $75K to $80K.

The signal is $111K to $131K.

On this day 16 years ago today, Laszlo Hanyecz purchased two pizzas for 10,000 bitcoin.

This marked the first recorded bitcoin payment in history, and turned a theoretical computer experiment into money with real tangible value.

Those bitcoin would now be worth $775,000,000.

BTC: $77,524

Power-law trend: $131,539
Discount to trend: 41%

p10 floor today: $61,950
Spot / floor: 1.25x
Floor breach rate: 10.4%
Target breach rate: 10%

Floor path:

2026: $61,950
2027: $92,226
2028: $127,541
2029: $174,375
2030: $231,461
2031: $294,709
2032: $373,073
2033: $472,000
2034: $599,409
2035: $736,082
2036: $801,103

If bought today and sold at the 2036 floor:

Return: 10.3x
CAGR: 26.3%

Compounding Floor, R^2~99.5%.

Unless you have access to pre-IPO AI companies, there’s still no better investment than Bitcoin out there.

No real estate, company or commodity is better.

Especially when you consider that you just buy Bitcoin and go to the beach. No further work or maintenance is required.

The ultimate infinite money glitch.