Nicolas de Luusc
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📅 Key US Economic & Fed Events (ET) — Week Ahead
This week is packed with macro catalysts, with the FOMC decision as the main event.
Monday (Jan 26)
🕣 8:30 AM – Durable Goods Orders (Nov, delayed)
Expected +4.5% rebound after prior weakness.
Key insight into manufacturing momentum (watch ex-transportation).
Tuesday (Jan 27)
🕙 10:00 AM – Consumer Confidence (Jan)
Forecast around 90.0, a key gauge of consumer sentiment.
Wednesday (Jan 28) — The Big Day
🕑 2:00 PM – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
🕝 2:30 PM – Powell Press Conference
Markets are focused on signals around rate cuts, inflation outlook, and policy risks.
Thursday (Jan 29)
🕣 8:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims (est. ~209k)
🕣 Trade Balance (Nov, delayed)
🕣 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q3 revised)
🕙 Factory Orders & Wholesale Inventories (delayed)
Friday (Jan 30)
🕣 8:30 AM – PPI (Dec)
Core & YoY PPI are critical for inflation expectations.
🕤 9:45 AM – Chicago PMI (Jan)
🎤 Fed speakers: Musalem (1:30 PM) & Vice Chair Bowman (5:00 PM)$BTC
This week is packed with macro catalysts, with the FOMC decision as the main event.
Monday (Jan 26)
🕣 8:30 AM – Durable Goods Orders (Nov, delayed)
Expected +4.5% rebound after prior weakness.
Key insight into manufacturing momentum (watch ex-transportation).
Tuesday (Jan 27)
🕙 10:00 AM – Consumer Confidence (Jan)
Forecast around 90.0, a key gauge of consumer sentiment.
Wednesday (Jan 28) — The Big Day
🕑 2:00 PM – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
🕝 2:30 PM – Powell Press Conference
Markets are focused on signals around rate cuts, inflation outlook, and policy risks.
Thursday (Jan 29)
🕣 8:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims (est. ~209k)
🕣 Trade Balance (Nov, delayed)
🕣 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q3 revised)
🕙 Factory Orders & Wholesale Inventories (delayed)
Friday (Jan 30)
🕣 8:30 AM – PPI (Dec)
Core & YoY PPI are critical for inflation expectations.
🕤 9:45 AM – Chicago PMI (Jan)
🎤 Fed speakers: Musalem (1:30 PM) & Vice Chair Bowman (5:00 PM)$BTC
Markets Brace for Fed Decision & Powell’s Signal
The Fed’s first policy decision of 2026 will be released at 2:00 PM ET (Wednesday), with expectations that the federal funds rate remains unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
Prediction markets like Polymarket show a 99% probability of no rate change, backed by over $582M in bets, reflecting near-total consensus.
This stability is supported by recent data:
Unemployment around 4.2%Cooling inflationResilient economic growth
As a result, market focus shifts to Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
This marks Powell’s first appearance since recent DOJ subpoena-related developments, amid rising concerns over Fed independence and the possibility of a new Fed Chair nomination in May.
Powell’s tone and guidance could significantly shape rate-cut expectations and drive volatility across risk assets, including crypto.
Prediction markets like Polymarket show a 99% probability of no rate change, backed by over $582M in bets, reflecting near-total consensus.
This stability is supported by recent data:
Unemployment around 4.2%Cooling inflationResilient economic growth
As a result, market focus shifts to Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
This marks Powell’s first appearance since recent DOJ subpoena-related developments, amid rising concerns over Fed independence and the possibility of a new Fed Chair nomination in May.
Powell’s tone and guidance could significantly shape rate-cut expectations and drive volatility across risk assets, including crypto.
Silver ETF Volume Just Went Parabolic
The silver#TokenizedSilverSurge $ market just printed a historic signal.
The world’s largest silver ETF, $SLV, recorded $40B in single-day trading volume — the highest ever, not only for silver but across all assets.
That’s:
15× its average daily volume3× the previous peak during the 2011 silver bull market
For comparison:
$SPY: ~$25B$QQQ: ~$17B$NVDA / $TSLA: ~$16B each
Even leveraged bets are surging, with $AGQ (2× silver ETF) seeing $8B in one day.
This isn’t a normal rally.
It’s an extreme positioning event — volatility risk is rising fast.
The world’s largest silver ETF, $SLV, recorded $40B in single-day trading volume — the highest ever, not only for silver but across all assets.
That’s:
15× its average daily volume3× the previous peak during the 2011 silver bull market
For comparison:
$SPY: ~$25B$QQQ: ~$17B$NVDA / $TSLA: ~$16B each
Even leveraged bets are surging, with $AGQ (2× silver ETF) seeing $8B in one day.
This isn’t a normal rally.
It’s an extreme positioning event — volatility risk is rising fast.
Để đánh giá chính xác hơn chênh lệch thực sự giữa giá Bạc giao ngay trên Sàn giao dịch vàng Thượng Hải và London, cần phải điều chỉnh theo thuế VAT 13% của Trung Quốc, áp dụng cho việc giao hàng vật chất.
Sau khi loại bỏ thành phần thuế này, mức chênh lệch giá giữa SGE và London đã đạt đỉnh điểm vào hôm qua ở mức hơn 5% trước khi giảm xuống khoảng 1% vào hôm nay.
Bản thân thuế VAT không phải là mới ( mức thuế 13% hiện tại đã được áp dụng từ năm 2019 ) nhưng vì nó tỷ lệ thuận với giá cả, nên nó đã vô tình làm tăng chênh lệch giá giữa Thượng Hải và London khi giá Bạc tăng vọt lên mức cao hơn nhiều.
Sau khi loại bỏ thành phần thuế này, mức chênh lệch giá giữa SGE và London đã đạt đỉnh điểm vào hôm qua ở mức hơn 5% trước khi giảm xuống khoảng 1% vào hôm nay.
Bản thân thuế VAT không phải là mới ( mức thuế 13% hiện tại đã được áp dụng từ năm 2019 ) nhưng vì nó tỷ lệ thuận với giá cả, nên nó đã vô tình làm tăng chênh lệch giá giữa Thượng Hải và London khi giá Bạc tăng vọt lên mức cao hơn nhiều.
Trump Expands Global Tariff Threats — Trade Warfare Escalates
Beyond South Korea, President Donald Trump is broadening his tariff strategy as leverage in global trade:
He’s warned that the U.S. could hit Canada with 100% tariffs if Ottawa signs a trade deal with China, arguing such a deal would let Beijing “evade U.S. tariffs” and harm Canadian sovereignty.
Trump’s administration has also used emergency tariffs targeting countries that import Venezuelan oil, effectively pulling others into U.S. trade pressure.
These threats are part of a broader pattern of aggressive trade measures aimed at pressuring allies and rivals alike.
China, for its part, has been quiet publicly, likely watching to see if these tariff threats are actually enforced before escalating retaliations.
What This Means for Markets & Crypto
Macro volatility is rising.
Broader trade pressure increases uncertainty in global supply chains and capital flows, which tends to:
🔹 Spike risk-off moves in equities and FX
🔹 Weaken risk appetite short-term
🔹 Potentially support BTC as a macro hedge if geopolitical risk intensifies
But heightened tariff fears can also trigger sharp swings and liquidity rotation — meaning crypto may chop before trending.
He’s warned that the U.S. could hit Canada with 100% tariffs if Ottawa signs a trade deal with China, arguing such a deal would let Beijing “evade U.S. tariffs” and harm Canadian sovereignty.
Trump’s administration has also used emergency tariffs targeting countries that import Venezuelan oil, effectively pulling others into U.S. trade pressure.
These threats are part of a broader pattern of aggressive trade measures aimed at pressuring allies and rivals alike.
China, for its part, has been quiet publicly, likely watching to see if these tariff threats are actually enforced before escalating retaliations.
What This Means for Markets & Crypto
Macro volatility is rising.
Broader trade pressure increases uncertainty in global supply chains and capital flows, which tends to:
🔹 Spike risk-off moves in equities and FX
🔹 Weaken risk appetite short-term
🔹 Potentially support BTC as a macro hedge if geopolitical risk intensifies
But heightened tariff fears can also trigger sharp swings and liquidity rotation — meaning crypto may chop before trending.
Trump Threatens 25% Tariffs on South Korea — Macro Risk Returns
President Donald Trump has warned the U.S. could impose tariffs of up to 25% on South Korean goods, citing delays in implementing last year’s trade agreement.
The threat revives trade tension risk between key allies — and markets are paying attention.
📉 What This Means for Crypto
Rising trade tensions tend to boost volatility across risk assets
Short term: crypto may see risk-off reactions if markets turn defensive
Medium term: persistent trade frictions can pressure the USD narrative and support BTC as a macro hedge
Trade wars don’t kill crypto — they reshape liquidity and risk appetite.
The threat revives trade tension risk between key allies — and markets are paying attention.
📉 What This Means for Crypto
Rising trade tensions tend to boost volatility across risk assets
Short term: crypto may see risk-off reactions if markets turn defensive
Medium term: persistent trade frictions can pressure the USD narrative and support BTC as a macro hedge
Trade wars don’t kill crypto — they reshape liquidity and risk appetite.
BlackRock Files Bitcoin Income ETF as Institutions Shift Strategy
BlackRock Files Bitcoin Income ETF — Institutions Are Evolving
BlackRock has filed for a Bitcoin Income ETF, signaling a clear shift in institutional strategy: from pure price exposure to yield-generating crypto products.
The ETF aims to combine BTC exposure with option income, allowing investors to earn returns even in sideways markets. This could open the door for more conservative institutional capital to enter crypto.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index is at a 4-month low, easing macro pressure on risk assets.
📌 Bottom line:
If approved, income-focused BTC products could create structural demand, not just speculative inflows — potentially supporting the next leg of a BTC rally.
BlackRock has filed for a Bitcoin Income ETF, signaling a clear shift in institutional strategy: from pure price exposure to yield-generating crypto products.
The ETF aims to combine BTC exposure with option income, allowing investors to earn returns even in sideways markets. This could open the door for more conservative institutional capital to enter crypto.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index is at a 4-month low, easing macro pressure on risk assets.
📌 Bottom line:
If approved, income-focused BTC products could create structural demand, not just speculative inflows — potentially supporting the next leg of a BTC rally.
US Shutdown
Why a U.S. Shutdown Is a Bigger Market Risk Than It Looks
The biggest risk from a potential government shutdown isn’t politics —
it’s missing data.
A prolonged budget stalemate could disrupt or delay key economic releases, including:
Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb 6)CPI (Feb 11)
For an already divided FOMC, less data means less confidence.
And for a Fed still hesitant to ease, data uncertainty becomes an excuse to stay on hold.
📌 Powell’s window for another rate cut was already narrow.
A shutdown could close it entirely.
🧠 Bottom line:
Markets need clarity — and right now, clarity is at risk.
Political deadlock may end up shaping Fed expectations and risk sentiment more than the data itself.
The biggest risk from a potential government shutdown isn’t politics —
it’s missing data.
A prolonged budget stalemate could disrupt or delay key economic releases, including:
Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb 6)CPI (Feb 11)
For an already divided FOMC, less data means less confidence.
And for a Fed still hesitant to ease, data uncertainty becomes an excuse to stay on hold.
📌 Powell’s window for another rate cut was already narrow.
A shutdown could close it entirely.
🧠 Bottom line:
Markets need clarity — and right now, clarity is at risk.
Political deadlock may end up shaping Fed expectations and risk sentiment more than the data itself.
🚨 U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Jumps to 80% in Just 72 Hours
The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has surged from 10% to nearly 80%, following recent political and social tensions linked to the Minneapolis incident.
Despite the House passing the remaining FY2026 bills, Senate Democrats are blocking progress over homeland security provisions and the lack of CBP/ICE policy reforms — preventing the bill from reaching the required 60-vote threshold before Friday’s deadline.
📌 This is no longer background political noise.
Markets are now forced to price in real shutdown risk.
$BTC
$BNB
The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has surged from 10% to nearly 80%, following recent political and social tensions linked to the Minneapolis incident.
Despite the House passing the remaining FY2026 bills, Senate Democrats are blocking progress over homeland security provisions and the lack of CBP/ICE policy reforms — preventing the bill from reaching the required 60-vote threshold before Friday’s deadline.
📌 This is no longer background political noise.
Markets are now forced to price in real shutdown risk.
$BTC
$BNB
Notably, the US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to its lowest level since the early 2000s.
This ongoing de-dollarization trend is driving central banks and large institutions to increase gold holdings, creating a long-term structural support for precious metal prices.
📌 This is less about short-term moves — and more about strategic reserve reallocation.$BTC
This ongoing de-dollarization trend is driving central banks and large institutions to increase gold holdings, creating a long-term structural support for precious metal prices.
📌 This is less about short-term moves — and more about strategic reserve reallocation.$BTC
🌍 Global Trade Is Quietly Shifting
India is reportedly finalizing a new trade agreement with the EU, cutting auto import tariffs from 110% to 40%, with a long-term target of 10%.
At the same time:
India is deepening trade ties with the EU
Canada is moving closer to trade agreements with China
This isn’t isolated news.
It points to a broader trend: global trade flows are being restructured, often outside the traditional US-centric framework.
📌 The global trade map is changing — and markets are starting to notice
India is reportedly finalizing a new trade agreement with the EU, cutting auto import tariffs from 110% to 40%, with a long-term target of 10%.
At the same time:
India is deepening trade ties with the EU
Canada is moving closer to trade agreements with China
This isn’t isolated news.
It points to a broader trend: global trade flows are being restructured, often outside the traditional US-centric framework.
📌 The global trade map is changing — and markets are starting to notice
🚀 ETF inflows or COMEX speculators aren’t driving silver’s parabolic surge toward $110.
Holdings in silver ETFs and speculative positions on COMEX are still declining, not rising.
This suggests the rally is not fuelled by leveraged bets or retail hype but by deeper structural demand and physical market dynamics.
📌 In other words, this move looks stronger — and potentially more durable — than a typical speculative spike.
$$$$BTC
Holdings in silver ETFs and speculative positions on COMEX are still declining, not rising.
This suggests the rally is not fuelled by leveraged bets or retail hype but by deeper structural demand and physical market dynamics.
📌 In other words, this move looks stronger — and potentially more durable — than a typical speculative spike.
$$$$BTC
💵 USD Weakens — The Commodity Cycle Is Coming Back
Last week may have looked like multiple separate stories, but in reality, it was one clear picture of capital rotation.
Gold pushing toward 5,000 and silver breaking 100 signal a strong preference for hard assets.
At the same time, the USD just posted its worst week in nine months.
Historically, a weaker dollar tends to trigger:
A rebound in industrial metals
A strong move in energy stocks
Renewed capital flows into emerging markets, driven by valuation and currency effects
The bigger picture:
The USD may be entering a prolonged downtrend
Precious metals remain in a long-term bull market
Emerging markets look cheap relative to the US and can move fast when risk appetite shifts
📌 This isn’t noise — it’s a shift in global money flow.
Last week may have looked like multiple separate stories, but in reality, it was one clear picture of capital rotation.
Gold pushing toward 5,000 and silver breaking 100 signal a strong preference for hard assets.
At the same time, the USD just posted its worst week in nine months.
Historically, a weaker dollar tends to trigger:
A rebound in industrial metals
A strong move in energy stocks
Renewed capital flows into emerging markets, driven by valuation and currency effects
The bigger picture:
The USD may be entering a prolonged downtrend
Precious metals remain in a long-term bull market
Emerging markets look cheap relative to the US and can move fast when risk appetite shifts
📌 This isn’t noise — it’s a shift in global money flow.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) This incident strengthens, not weakens, BTC’s core principle: Not your keys, not your coins. The protocol didn’t fail — people did . Long-term narrative remains intact.
#southkoreaseizedbtcloss
🚨 South Korea Lost $48M in Seized Bitcoin — Yes, Government-Controlled BTC
South Korean authorities reportedly lost access to ~$48 million worth of seized Bitcoin, allegedly due to a phishing-related incident.
Let that sink in.
This wasn’t a hack on an exchange.
This wasn’t retail panic.
This was Bitcoin already seized and held by the government — gone.
The story is still unfolding, but one thing is already clear:
Crypto doesn’t forgive bad custody — no matter who you are.
Markets may react emotionally in the short term, but this event cuts deeper than price.
It’s about control, responsibility, and security.
More details are expected as the investigation continues.
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
🚨 South Korea Lost $48M in Seized Bitcoin — Yes, Government-Controlled BTC
South Korean authorities reportedly lost access to ~$48 million worth of seized Bitcoin, allegedly due to a phishing-related incident.
Let that sink in.
This wasn’t a hack on an exchange.
This wasn’t retail panic.
This was Bitcoin already seized and held by the government — gone.
The story is still unfolding, but one thing is already clear:
Crypto doesn’t forgive bad custody — no matter who you are.
Markets may react emotionally in the short term, but this event cuts deeper than price.
It’s about control, responsibility, and security.
More details are expected as the investigation continues.
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
#southkoreaseizedbtcloss
🚨 South Korea Lost $48M in Seized Bitcoin — Yes, Government-Controlled BTC
South Korean authorities reportedly lost access to ~$48 million worth of seized Bitcoin, allegedly due to a phishing-related incident.
Let that sink in.
This wasn’t a hack on an exchange.
This wasn’t retail panic.
This was Bitcoin already seized and held by the government — gone.
The story is still unfolding, but one thing is already clear:
Crypto doesn’t forgive bad custody — no matter who you are.
Markets may react emotionally in the short term, but this event cuts deeper than price.
It’s about control, responsibility, and security.
More details are expected as the investigation continues.
$BTC
🚨 South Korea Lost $48M in Seized Bitcoin — Yes, Government-Controlled BTC
South Korean authorities reportedly lost access to ~$48 million worth of seized Bitcoin, allegedly due to a phishing-related incident.
Let that sink in.
This wasn’t a hack on an exchange.
This wasn’t retail panic.
This was Bitcoin already seized and held by the government — gone.
The story is still unfolding, but one thing is already clear:
Crypto doesn’t forgive bad custody — no matter who you are.
Markets may react emotionally in the short term, but this event cuts deeper than price.
It’s about control, responsibility, and security.
More details are expected as the investigation continues.
$BTC
Plan B if $BTC won’t work out
🚨 BTC at a Crossroad — This Week’s US Data Will Decide the Next Move
Bitcoin is currently consolidating near key levels, and the next short-term direction will likely be driven not by narratives, but by US macro data.
📊 Key US Economic Data (Early January)
This week’s focus:
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ADP Employment
JOLTS Job Openings
Initial Jobless Claims
Non-Farm Payrolls (Jan 9)
How the market may react:
📉 Weaker data (cooling jobs, soft PMI)
→ Higher odds of Fed rate cuts
→ Bullish for BTC & risk assets
📈 Stronger data
→ Fed stays hawkish
→ BTC could see a short-term pullback
$BTC
Bitcoin is currently consolidating near key levels, and the next short-term direction will likely be driven not by narratives, but by US macro data.
📊 Key US Economic Data (Early January)
This week’s focus:
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ADP Employment
JOLTS Job Openings
Initial Jobless Claims
Non-Farm Payrolls (Jan 9)
How the market may react:
📉 Weaker data (cooling jobs, soft PMI)
→ Higher odds of Fed rate cuts
→ Bullish for BTC & risk assets
📈 Stronger data
→ Fed stays hawkish
→ BTC could see a short-term pullback
$BTC
🚨 US Economic Data This Week: 3 Key Drivers for BTC & Crypto
Global markets are watching three major US economic reports this week that could shape Fed rate expectations and drive volatility in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
🔹 NFP & Unemployment
Weaker labour data → higher odds of Fed rate cuts → bullish for crypto.
🔹 CPI & Core CPI (Inflation)
Cooling inflation → reduced pressure on the Fed → positive tailwind for BTC and risk assets.
🔹 Retail Sales / PMI
Markets want a “soft landing”.
Moderate cooling supports crypto; too much weakness raises recession risks.
📌 Bottom Line:
A slowing US economy with controlled inflation = upside momentum for crypto.
#FOMCWatch #BTC
Global markets are watching three major US economic reports this week that could shape Fed rate expectations and drive volatility in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
🔹 NFP & Unemployment
Weaker labour data → higher odds of Fed rate cuts → bullish for crypto.
🔹 CPI & Core CPI (Inflation)
Cooling inflation → reduced pressure on the Fed → positive tailwind for BTC and risk assets.
🔹 Retail Sales / PMI
Markets want a “soft landing”.
Moderate cooling supports crypto; too much weakness raises recession risks.
📌 Bottom Line:
A slowing US economy with controlled inflation = upside momentum for crypto.
#FOMCWatch #BTC
U.S. Stocks: Weak Rebound After Thanksgiving, Fed Pause Concerns
U.S. markets reopened on December 1 after the Thanksgiving break with a tech-led sell-off. The Nasdaq dropped 2–3% as Nvidia fell 4% and Tesla 5%. While the S&P 500 and Dow gained 1–2% last week, November still closed down 4–6% as the 10-year yield jumped to 4.62%.
Mixed economic data — Consumer Confidence at 110 and Q3 GDP at +2.8% — pushed expectations for a December Fed rate cut down from 100% to 85%. Investors also remain cautious about potential inflation pressure from Trump’s tariff plans.
Key data this week (S&P Global):
• Dec 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Dec 3: Nonfarm Payrolls (forecast +200k)
• Dec 4: Fed Minutes
Nasdaq may retest the 17,000 level if yields rise above 4.7%.
Market sentiment softened globally, with Japan leading the sell-off. Even Vistra (energy) fell despite strong Q2 earnings, partly due to volatility tied to crypto markets
U.S. markets reopened on December 1 after the Thanksgiving break with a tech-led sell-off. The Nasdaq dropped 2–3% as Nvidia fell 4% and Tesla 5%. While the S&P 500 and Dow gained 1–2% last week, November still closed down 4–6% as the 10-year yield jumped to 4.62%.
Mixed economic data — Consumer Confidence at 110 and Q3 GDP at +2.8% — pushed expectations for a December Fed rate cut down from 100% to 85%. Investors also remain cautious about potential inflation pressure from Trump’s tariff plans.
Key data this week (S&P Global):
• Dec 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI
• Dec 3: Nonfarm Payrolls (forecast +200k)
• Dec 4: Fed Minutes
Nasdaq may retest the 17,000 level if yields rise above 4.7%.
Market sentiment softened globally, with Japan leading the sell-off. Even Vistra (energy) fell despite strong Q2 earnings, partly due to volatility tied to crypto markets
CPI Forecast for August 12, 2025 CPI (YoY): Expected at 2.8%, up from 2.7% in June. Core CPI (YoY): Expected at 3.1%, up from 2.9%. Key Drivers: Trump’s tariffs (145% on China, 10-41% globally), rising housing and food costs, offset slightly by lower energy prices.
Bitcoin: Below 2.8%: Boosts expectations for Fed rate cuts, weakens USD, likely pushing BTC past $122,838 toward $130,000. Above 2.8%: Reduces rate cut odds, strengthens USD, potentially dropping BTC to $115,000-$118,000. Current BTC: ~$122,000, near all-time high, highly sensitive to CPI outcome.
Bitcoin: Below 2.8%: Boosts expectations for Fed rate cuts, weakens USD, likely pushing BTC past $122,838 toward $130,000. Above 2.8%: Reduces rate cut odds, strengthens USD, potentially dropping BTC to $115,000-$118,000. Current BTC: ~$122,000, near all-time high, highly sensitive to CPI outcome.
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