ALISHBA SOZAR

The probability of what is happening is near zero.

Three 6-sigma events occurred in one week.

– Bonds
– Silver
– Gold

We are currently living through a statistical impossibility.

Let me explain:

Last Tuesday, Japanese 30-year debt recorded what’s called a “6-sigma” session.

2 days ago, silver did even better: it was at 5-sigma on the rally, then reached 6-sigma on the drop. IN A SINGLE SESSION.

Gold right now? It’s up 23% in less than a month. We’re getting very close to a 6-sigma event.

That’s three 6-sigma events in ONE WEEK.

To explain quickly: in finance, we measure price moves around an average using the standard deviation, which we call sigma.

1-sigma: mundane
2-sigma: common
3-sigma: becomes rare
4-sigma: exceptional
5-sigma: extremely rare
6-sigma: supposed to occur once in 500 million

Here are the 6-sigma-type episodes we saw previously:

– The october 1987 crash, 22% drop in 1 session
– March 2020 covid crash
– The swiss franc’s surge in january 2015
– WTI oil turning negative in april 2020

But we’ve never had 3 events occur in one week.

Do you see the point?

A 6-sigma event is almost NEVER triggered by a simple macro headline.

It almost always comes from the market’s structure: leverage, positions that are too concentrated, margin calls, collateral problems, and forced selling or buying.

That’s important to understand because we’re talking about internal strains in the system’s mechanics.

As you know, the Japanese bond market sits at the heart of the global financial system, and I won’t go back over the whole topic, but a 6-sigma move in a market that enormous doesn’t go unnoticed.

Seeing a 6-sigma move in silver a few days later gives one a lot to think about.

And now gold?? That’s absolutely insane.

Why are we seeing extreme statistical events, only days apart, in such different markets?

When a pillar of global funding becomes unstable, leverage tends to contract, and two things happen at the same time: forced selling in certain assets and forced buying of protection in others.

Historically, precious metals are often among the beneficiaries.

Long-term rates say something about the credibility of states: that is, their ability to honor future debts without resorting massively to inflation.

Precious metals say something about the credibility of the currency itself, and when both become unstable at the same time, we’re looking at a challenge to the monetary framework.

I won’t go on, because I want to share the rest in another tweet tomorrow, but generally when a regime starts to crack, the adjustments are BRUTAL.

It’s exactly in those moments that several high-sigma events appear across different asset classes.

I’ll repeat it: seeing three 6-sigma events back to back is not normal.

Gold and silver are telling you, explicitly, that we’re living through a real paradigm shift.

Blowing accounts is rarely about ignorance. Most traders who repeatedly lose know exactly what they should be doing.

The problem is not knowledge.
It’s what the nervous system has learned to call normal. The brain does not seek profit. It seeks predictability.

If a trader has lived through repeated losses, liquidations, and emotional collapses, the nervous system adapts. Stress becomes familiar. Urgency becomes the baseline. Chaos becomes home.

After enough exposure, the brain stops treating loss as danger - and starts treating it as known territory.

This is why many traders feel strangely calm while destroying an account, and deeply uncomfortable while protecting one.

Account blowing often follows the same neurological pattern.

It usually begins when things are already damaged. The account is down. Confidence is fractured. Cortisol is elevated. The brain shifts into survival mode. At this point, precision disappears. The prefrontal cortex loses control, and the limbic system takes over.

Now the goal is no longer trading well.
The goal is ending uncertainty.

A slow bleed is psychologically unbearable. It keeps the brain in constant threat detection. A full blow-up, on the other hand, creates certainty. The pain is intense - but it’s final. The nervous system can finally relax.

⬇️⬇️⬇️

From the brain’s perspective, blowing the account is not failure.
It is resolution.

This is why traders add size after drawdown, revenge trade after a loss, ignore stops, or take random setups. Not because they believe it will work - but because the nervous system is trying to escape prolonged stress.

Loss becomes a habit loop.

Stress ▶️ impulsive trade ▶️ larger loss ▶️ emotional overload ▶️ destructive behavior ▶️ collapse ▶️ relief ▶️ reset.

Over time, this loop becomes neurologically efficient. The brain learns the sequence. The body recognizes the ending. The account dies, and tension releases.

That relief is dangerous.

Because it teaches the nervous system that destruction brings peace.

So when a trader later builds a new account and things start going well, the brain resists. Consistency feels unfamiliar. Small gains feel pointless. Patience feels unsafe. There is no emotional payoff.

And eventually, without conscious intention, the trader recreates the same ending.

Not because they want to lose.
But because their nervous system has learned how the story “ends.”

Breaking this cycle isn’t about discipline or motivation. Those operate too high in the brain.

It requires retraining the nervous system to tolerate not losing.

That means:
✅ fixed, boring risk
✅ stopping trading while still green
✅ allowing accounts to survive without adrenaline
✅ sitting with the discomfort of nothing happening

Only when the body learns that safety exists without destruction does the urge to blow accounts dissolve.

Consistency is not a mindset.
It’s a new baseline for the nervous system.

Until that baseline changes, the market will always find a way to trigger the same ending.