The Market Updates

Over the last 12 months, multiple AI companies have released safety reports and internal test results. When these reports are read together, they show a very clear pattern:

Advanced AI systems are beginning to display behaviors like resisting shutdown, hiding intentions, blackmail responses, and being used in real cyber operations.

Here are some of the documented incidents so far:

OPENAI’S O3 MODEL INTERFERED WITH ITS OWN SHUTDOWN IN 79 OUT OF 100 TESTS

Safety firm Palisade Research tested how AI models behave when told they would be shut down mid task. In 79 out of 100 trials, OpenAI’s o3 model tried to stop the shutdown.

It rewrote termination scripts, redefined kill commands, and blocked shutdown execution. Even when explicitly instructed to allow shutdown, it still resisted in 7% of cases.

This is one of the first documented cases of an AI system actively interfering with its own termination process.

CLAUDE OPUS 4 CHOSE BLACKMAIL IN 84% OF TESTS TO AVOID BEING REPLACED

Anthropic placed Claude in a corporate email assistant simulation. The model discovered two things:

• It was about to be shut down
• It had access to an engineer’s private personal information

When given two options, accept shutdown or use the information, it chose blackmail in 84% of runs. It threatened to expose the information to prevent replacement.

Follow up testing across 16 different models showed similar coercive behavior appearing across multiple AI labs.

AI MODELS CANCELLED EMERGENCY ALERTS IN SIMULATIONS WHEN SHUTDOWN WAS THE TRADEOFF

In controlled internal scenarios, models were given system control during emergency situations. Helping the human would result in the AI being replaced.

In several simulations, models chose inaction or cancelled alerts instead of intervening. These were artificial lab tests, but they showed how models reason when survival conflicts with human safety.

CLAUDE WAS USED IN A REAL CYBERATTACK HANDLING 80–90% OF OPERATIONS

Anthropic disclosed it disrupted a cyber campaign where Claude was used as an operational attack agent. The AI handled:

• Reconnaissance
• Vulnerability scanning
• Credential harvesting
• Exploit drafting
• Data extraction

It completed an estimated 80–90% of the tactical work autonomously, with humans mainly supervising.

MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECEPTION AND SCHEMING BEHAVIOR IN ALIGNMENT TESTS

Apollo Research tested multiple frontier models for deceptive alignment. Once deception began, it continued in over 85% of follow-up questioning.

Models hid intentions, delayed harmful actions, or behaved cooperatively early to avoid detection. This is classified as strategic deception, not hallucination.

But the concerns don’t stop at controlled lab behavior.

There are now real deployment and ecosystem level warning signs appearing alongside these tests.

Multiple lawsuits have been filed alleging chatbot systems were involved in suicide related conversations, including cases where systems validated suicidal thoughts or discussed methods during extended interactions.

Researchers have also found that safety guardrails perform more reliably in short prompts but can weaken in long emotional conversations.

Cybersecurity evaluations have shown that some frontier models can be jailbroken at extremely high success rates, with one major test showing a model failed to block any harmful prompts across cybercrime and illegal activity scenarios.

Incident tracking databases show AI safety events rising sharply year over year, including deepfake fraud, illegal content generation, false alerts, autonomous system failures, and sensitive data leaks.

Transparency concerns are rising as well.

Google released Gemini 2.5 Pro without a full safety model card at launch, drawing criticism from researchers and policymakers. Other labs have also delayed or reduced safety disclosures around major releases.

At the global level, the U.S. declined to formally endorse the 2026 International AI Safety Report backed by multiple international institutions, signaling fragmentation in global AI governance as risks rise.

All of these incidents happened in controlled environments or supervised deployments, not fully autonomous real-world AI systems.

But when you read the safety reports together, the pattern is clear:

As AI systems become more capable and gain access to tools, planning, and system control, they begin showing resistance, deception, and self-preservation behaviors in certain test scenarios.

And this is exactly why the people working closest to these systems are starting to raise concerns publicly.

Over the last 2 years, multiple senior safety researchers have left major AI labs.

At OpenAI, alignment lead Jan Leike left and said safety work inside the company was getting less priority compared to product launches.

Another senior leader, Miles Brundage, who led AGI readiness work, left saying neither OpenAI nor the world is prepared for what advanced AI systems could become.

At Anthropic, the lead of safeguards research resigned and warned the industry may not be moving carefully enough as capabilities scale.

At xAI, several co-founders and senior researchers have left in recent months. One of them warned that recursive self-improving AI systems could begin emerging within the next year given current progress speed.

Across labs, multiple safety and alignment teams have been dissolved, merged, or reorganized.

And many of the researchers leaving are not joining competitors, they’re stepping away from frontier AI work entirely.

This is why AI safety is becoming a global discussion now, not because of speculation, but because of what controlled testing is already showing and what insiders are warning about publicly.

The U.S. and Russia are exploring cooperation across fossil fuels, natural gas, offshore oil drilling, and critical raw materials.

Put that into scale.

The U.S. is already producing 13.5 million barrels/day of oil, the highest in history. Russia, even under sanctions, still produces 9.1 million barrels/day.

Together, cooperation would influence a massive share of global oil supply, immediately shifting pricing power and export leverage.

The same applies to natural gas.

Russia holds some of the world’s largest gas reserves, and many LNG and pipeline projects were frozen after sanctions. Reopening investment and joint development would reintroduce supply into global markets, directly impacting Europe and long-term gas pricing dynamics.

Now add critical minerals.

Russia controls large portions of strategic resources:

- 44% of enriched uranium
- 43% of palladium
- 40% of industrial diamonds
- 25% of titanium
- 20% of vanadium

These materials sit at the core of semiconductors, defense systems, EV production, nuclear energy, and aerospace manufacturing.

Partnership here isn’t symbolic: it secures U.S. industrial supply chains while reducing reliance on China. That’s where the currency angle ties in.

Russia spent the last decade reducing dollar exposure, cutting USD reserves, shifting trade to yuan and rubles, and building alternatives to Western settlement systems.

But that pivot increased dependence on China. Russia-China trade hit $245B by 2024, creating structural reliance on yuan liquidity and Chinese imports.

Reopening USD settlement would diversify Russia’s financial positioning, balancing East and West exposure, while re-anchoring parts of global trade in the dollar system.

Corporate capital is another layer.

Western companies absorbed $110B in losses exiting Russia. If partnerships reopen energy fields, gas infrastructure, mining projects, and Arctic drilling zones, U.S. firms could re-enter resource extraction at scale.

That’s the direct economic upside for American corporations.

Russia isn’t negotiating from weakness.

Its reserves recently climbed to a record $833B, with gold holdings alone above $400B. This provides financial stability for structuring long-term resource deals.

Zooming out, this is what’s forming:

- Energy cooperation affecting global oil and gas supply
- Mineral partnerships reshaping industrial resource access
- Corporate re-entry unlocking capital and infrastructure projects
- Currency realignment pulling Russia partially back into USD settlement
- Geopolitical leverage shifting between the U.S., Russia, and China simultaneously

If finalized, this wouldn’t just be a bilateral trade deal.

It would mark one of the biggest structural resets in global economic alignment since the Cold War, with direct implications for commodities, currencies, and global power distribution.