RecodeX

📡 On-the-hour Update | 15:00-16:00

1. China’s three major A-share indexes all closed lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.16%, and the ChiNext Price Index declined 1.77%. Sectors such as pork and coal, as well as innovative drugs, strengthened against the trend, while robot-related and PCB concept stocks saw sharp pullbacks.

2. China’s domestic commodity futures closed with more contracts rising than falling. Egg futures gained over 4%, and tin futures on the Shanghai exchange rose more than 3%. Containerized freight on the Europe route fell more than 4%, while lithium carbonate and dried jujube dropped over 2%.

3. The first Global Dialogue on AI Governance was held in Geneva, focusing on four priority areas: AI opportunities, capacity building, security and trustworthiness, and human rights oversight.

4. Tencent released its Hunyuan Hy3 model officially. Its performance is comparable to a flagship model with parameter scale 2–5 times larger. The model has already been open-sourced, and its API pricing has been further reduced.

5. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the reported test firing of China’s submarine-launched strategic missiles by China’s Navy, saying it is part of routine annual military training and is not targeted at any specific country or target.

6. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also responded to the European craze for China’s heat-protection and cooling products, stating that products that meet demand and offer good value naturally become popular, and that China–EU trade is mutually beneficial and win–win.

7. A former Japanese official in charge of foreign exchange affairs said the yen is undervalued by as much as 20%, warning that short-sellers should be careful about the risk of intervention. Goldman Sachs also cut its 2026 LME aluminum price forecast to $2,950 per metric ton.

8. Baodi Mining expects net profit to increase by 189%–210% year-on-year in the first half of the year, mainly due to stronger international gold prices and the sale of newly added gold and polymetallic concentrate/powder from its subsidiaries.

📡 8-hour Review | July 06, 08:00-16:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets showed clear divergence. South Korea’s stock market surged nearly 3% at one point boosted by improving expectations for semiconductor chip company earnings, but then sharply plunged. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s next-generation AI rack system, Kyber NVL144, was delayed to 2028 due to manufacturing challenges, sending the industry chain into turmoil. In commodities, gold rose above $4,200, hitting a two-week high, driven by risk-off sentiment. The Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin fell to extreme negative territory, hinting that a bottom may be near. Geopolitically, Kyiv in Ukraine was hit by missile strikes, and large-scale airstrikes by Russian forces caused multiple casualties. China’s Navy successfully tested a submarine-launched strategic missile. Overall, market sentiment is cautious, volatility in tech stocks increased, and capital rotated toward defensive sectors such as gold and innovative pharmaceuticals.

Macroeconomy

1. The central bank conducted a RMB 7-billion, 7-day reverse repo operation and an RMB 1-trillion unilateral reverse repo operation. Net liquidity injection for the day was RMB 49.5 billion, keeping overall liquidity reasonably ample.

2. Germany’s May seasonally adjusted factory orders rose 1.9% month-over-month, well above the expected 1.1%, indicating resilience in European manufacturing.

3. Goldman Sachs sharply cut its forecast for the USD/JPY exchange rate to 165, saying the interest-rate differential between the US and Japan and Japan’s slow pace of rate hikes will continue to pressure the yen.

4. Singapore’s May retail sales fell to 3% year-over-year, below the prior figure of 5.4%, suggesting weakening momentum in consumer recovery.

5. China Bank resumed issuing 5-year personal large-denomination time deposits, with an annualized yield of 1.55%-1.6%, reflecting banks’ need for stable long-term funding.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio dropped below -20, and the miner stress index hit a historical low. Historical patterns suggest the price may be approaching a bottom.

2. Bitcoin’s “bottom-picking” index, AHR999, fell to 0.32, near historical lows, indicating extreme pessimism in the market.

3. A report by The New York Times said nearly one million investors suffered cumulative losses of $3.81 billion due to TRUMP meme coins.

4. Expectations for Fed rate hikes cooled. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold continued their rebound, though overall trading activity remained thin.

AI Technology

1. Nvidia’s next-generation AI rack system Kyber NVL144 was delayed to 2028 because of PCB manufacturing issues. This gives competitors such as AMD room to surpass. PCB-related stocks collectively plunged.

2. Samsung Electronics expects operating profit in the second quarter to surge about 18 times year over year. SK hynix has kicked off an approximately $28-billion U.S. listing plan, upgrading the HBM race.

3. Meituan officially open-sourced its trillion-parameter model LongCat-2.0 and simultaneously released inference code optimized for domestically available computing power, lowering deployment barriers.

4. An international research team used AI to discover two new types of superconductors, providing new avenues for finding room-temperature superconducting materials.

5. Huawei’s Mate 90 series is expected to adopt a new Kirin chip based on the “law of compaction” (韬定律) and use logic folding technology, with a major performance boost.

Geopolitics

1. Multiple explosions were heard in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Russian forces launched ballistic missiles that caused casualties. Russia also fired 68 missiles and launched 351 drones into Ukraine overnight.

2. China’s Navy successfully organized a test launch of a submarine-launched strategic missile, firing missiles carrying training simulated warheads into relevant high seas areas in the Pacific. The relevant countries were notified in advance.

3. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that regardless of whether the US and Iran reach a deal, Israel will oppose Iran’s nuclear program.

4. The funeral ceremony for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Khamenei was held in Tehran, with millions of mourners attending.

5. Iraq’s cabinet approved research into a strategic oil export pipeline project’s preliminary agreement. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August.

Market Sentiment and Key Focus

Overall, sentiment is cautious and slightly bearish. Tech stocks are seeing higher volatility, and funds are rotating into defensive sectors such as gold and innovative drugs. Key areas to watch: the ripple effects from Nvidia’s delayed event on the AI industry chain, signals of stabilization after the sharp volatility in South Korean chip stocks, and the impact of geopolitical developments on energy and safe-haven assets.

📡 Hourly News | 14:00-15:00

1. Germany: After seasonally adjusting in May, factory orders rose 1.9% month over month, far exceeding expectations of 1.1%, compared with the prior -3.8%.

2. A-share EDA-related concepts surged across the board. Gigade Electronic hit the 20cm daily limit-up, and Huada JiuTian rose nearly 15%, boosted by Huawei’s release of the “Taoding Law” V2 version.

3. TrendForce data shows demand for high-end AI MLCC has surged sharply. Orders and shipments from Japanese and Korean giants such as Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics hit new highs, and the risk of shortages is increasing in the second half of the year.

4. SK hynix is set to list on Nasdaq on July 10, raising $29 billion, the largest-scale foreign company IPO in U.S. history.

5. In the first half of the year, the number of financing events for brain-computer interface in Shanghai accounted for nearly 60% of the national total, with the number of concentrated companies making up one-third of the nationwide figure.

6. Spot gold broke below $4,150, falling more than 0.6% during the day. JPMorgan lowered its Q4 gold price target to $4,500.

7. Sullivan’s report shows that Alibaba Cloud leads China’s full-stack AI cloud services market with a 40.1% market share, with revenue of RMB 23.9 billion.

8. Porsche is considering further layoffs of 4,000 jobs in Germany and will stop accepting personalized customization orders for new fully electric Macan and Taycan vehicles.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 13:00-14:00

1. China’s navy successfully organized a submerged launch test of a strategic ballistic missile. It launched a missile carrying a training-simulated warhead into related international waters in the Pacific Ocean, and the relevant countries were notified in advance.

2. The Huawei Mate 90 series is expected to feature a new Kirin chip based on the “Taoding Law,” using logical folding technology, with significantly improved performance.

3. Wallennium Technology, an AI chip company in Shanghai, raised about US$892.5 million through a new share offering to expand GPU production. Its stock price has risen by more than 150% since its IPO.

4. Analog Devices (ADI), a leading maker of analog chips, issued a notice letter stating that demand has rebounded, tightening supply. For some products, delivery lead times can be as long as six months.

5. South Korea has decided to build a new chip industrial park in Gwangju and speed up the construction progress of the chip factory project in Yongin.

6. The world’s largest 3D printing manufacturing center will be established in Shenzhen. Ztubo Technology, via its subsidiary, won the industrial land for RMB 141.2 million.

7. Russian attacks on Kyiv resulted in 9 deaths and 46 injuries, with multiple residential buildings damaged. During the night, Russian forces launched 68 missiles and 351 drones at Ukraine.

8. In Singapore, May’s retail sales rose 3% year-on-year, below the prior 5.40%. Month-on-month it was -2.3%, with the previous figure revised to 0.4%.

📡 Hourly News Update | 12:00-13:00

1. Guangxi is hit by Typhoon “Maysak,” with ongoing heavy rainfall. The National Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Water Resources have upgraded their flood-control emergency response to Level III/II. Places including Nanning and Hengzhou have raised their response to Level I, and 65 rivers are above warning levels.

2. During the midday trading session in Hong Kong stocks, the three major indexes surged. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.83%, the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.16%, Tencent rose more than 3.8%, and sectors such as innovative drugs and power equipment stayed active. However, PCB-related concepts fell, dragged down by Nvidia-related negative news.

3. News in the humanoid robotics sector is coming in thick and fast: The CEO of Robo Party said the industry currently has a valuation bubble; Nomura estimates that for every 100,000 units shipped in 2026, 10 million training hours will be required; and companies such as Enforce Shares and Shanglu Electronic have disclosed progress in related business.

4. International research teams used AI to discover two new types of superconductors, opening a new path in the search for room-temperature superconducting materials. This could help reduce energy consumption in fields such as computing and power transmission.

5. Goldman Sachs has sharply cut its forecast for the yen versus the US dollar to 165, saying that the interest-rate spread between the US and Japan and Japan’s central bank’s slow pace of rate hikes are driving the yen to keep weakening. The US dollar/yen rose 0.3% to 161.93.

6. The funeral ceremony for the late Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was held in Tehran, attended by millions of mourners. Burial rites will follow in Qom and Mashhad.

7. South Korean lawmakers warned that the KOSPI index “has become a casino,” urging the delisting of leveraged ETFs. They are concerned these products amplify market volatility and consume corporate value.

8. JD.com acquired a Hong Kong student dormitory property in Yau Ma Tei for HK$750 million. Far East Development has pledged to provide a guaranteed annual revenue of HK$45 million each year for three years, implying an annualized return rate of about 6%.

📡 Hourly News Update | 11:00-12:00

1. Nvidia’s next-generation AI rack system, Kyber NVL144, is delayed to 2028 due to challenges in PCB manufacturing. This sparked a collective plunge among PCB concept stocks, with Topband (Dengta?) Accumulated Layered Board falling by more than 18% at one point.

2. Hong Kong stock tech stocks surged: Tencent rose by over 5%, southbound capital net bought more than HK$10 billion, and the STAR 50 Index rebounded in a V-shape, up nearly 2%.

3. The storage chip sector rebounded in a V-shape. Huahong Hongli rose by more than 10%, Samsung’s Q2 operating profit is expected to jump by 18 times, and SK hynix has launched an approximately US$28 billion plan for a US listing.

4. The market value of the Huainan Gold ETF exceeded RMB 90 billion, overtaking the CSI 300 ETF to become the largest ETF product onshore. Gold prices stabilized above US$4,000.

5. Meituan released LongCat-2.0, an open-source trillion-parameter model. Moore Threads completed its adaptation, and Enterprise WeChat released the first batch of AI recording devices.

6. Citigroup raised its target price for TSMC to NT$3,800, expecting it to improve the 2026 revenue guidance. Ongoing AI demand continues to provide support.

7. Japan began the 21st round of Fukushima nuclear-contaminated water discharge, expected to release about 7,800 tons. Iran held the funeral ceremony for the late supreme leader Khamenei in Tehran.

8. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell by more than 3% intraday, while SK hynix dropped by more than 5%. Goldman Sachs sharply cut its yen forecast, expecting it to fall to 165 within a year.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 10:00-11:00

1. Semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis said that Nvidia’s Kyber NVL144 racks may face PCB manufacturing process challenges or delays of more than 12 months, pushing the timeline to 2028—leaving room for competitors such as AMD to catch up.

2. China A-share innovative drug sector rose strongly against the trend. Shouyao Holdings hit the 20CM daily limit, driven by supportive policies and the momentum from CITIC Securities’ optimism about steady improvement in fundamentals.

3. South Korea’s KOSPI index intraday decline widened to 3%. SK Hynix fell more than 5%, Samsung Electronics dropped 1.6%, and market sentiment deteriorated sharply.

4. Meituan officially open-sourced its trillion-parameter model, LongCat-2.0, and also released inference code optimized for domestic computing power, lowering the deployment barrier.

5. The National General Headquarters for Flood Control and Drought Relief launched a Level-IV emergency response for Anhui and Shandong to deal with heavy rain and torrential rain from July 6 to July 7.

6. Trading value across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets surpassed RMB 1.5 trillion, up by more than RMB 50 billion versus the same time the previous day. However, major A-share indexes rebounded after hitting highs, with the ChiNext index falling more than 2%.

7. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung urged speeding up large-scale chip and AI projects, stressing that “speed is everything,” and called for shortening approval procedures.

8. Goldman Sachs lowered its yen exchange rate forecast to 165 yen per US dollar. It favors carry-trade opportunities and believes that Japan’s slow rate hikes and ongoing fiscal pressures will continue to weigh on the yen.

📡 Top-of-hour update | 09:00-10:00

1. The People’s Bank of China today conducted a 70 billion yuan, 7-day reverse repo operation and a 10,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation. Net injections of 49.5 billion yuan were achieved on the day.

2. All three major A-share indexes opened higher across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component rose 0.52%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%. The storage-chip sector led the gains.

3. Commodity futures opened mostly higher. Tin on the Shanghai exchange rose by more than 3%, while live hogs, asphalt, and eggs rose by more than 2%. Stainless steel and lithium carbonate fell by more than 1%.

4. Multiple explosions were reported in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Russian forces launched ballistic missiles, resulting in 5 people injured, with an apartment building hit.

5. Jiangbo Long opened up more than 10%. It expects net profit in the first half of the year to grow year-on-year by 62,204%–74,394%, driving strength in the storage-chip sector.

6. The leading copper-clad laminate company Tripod (Comtec) released a price-increase notice. FR-4 was raised by 15%, copper foil processing fees were increased, and Hong Kong-listed PCB-related concept stocks opened higher as a group.

7. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stated that the government will speed up administrative procedures for the chip-industry cluster and will set up a committee in August to enhance chip competitiveness.

8. Amazon Web Services (AWS) notified its supply chain that it will raise the shipment volume target for ASIC servers in the third quarter of 2026, which is expected to increase the plan by 20%–30%.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 08:00-09:00

1. The Tianwen-2 probe successfully rendezvoused with asteroid 2016HO3, initiating scientific observations and reducing positional errors from over hundreds of kilometers to the kilometer scale.

2. South Korea’s KOSPI index opened strong and rose steadily, at one point gaining nearly 3% before pulling back. It was supported by SK Hynix launching a $28 billion U.S. listing plan and optimism around Samsung Electronics’ earnings.

3. Spot gold broke through $4,200 per ounce to hit a two-week high, as weak U.S. employment data and falling oil prices weakened expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

4. Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio fell to below -20; the miners’ stress index reached a historical low. The market is extremely bearish, and historical patterns suggest the price may be approaching the bottom.

5. Citic Securities is bullish on the innovative drug sector, noting improvements in R&D quality and global value validation. It recommends focusing on three categories of companies, including leading Pharma/Biopharma players.

6. South Korea launched a 24-hour onshore USD/KRW trading system to improve the convertibility of the Korean won and pursue an MSCI Developed Market status.

7. New trading rules for China’s A-shares took effect. Fixed-price trading after hours was expanded to the main board and ETFs, and the price fluctuation limit for main-board ST shares was adjusted to 10%.

8. OPEC+ decided to increase production by about 188,000 barrels per day in August. Oil prices came under pressure and fell, though shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain.

📡 On-the-Hour News Brief | 07:00-08:00

1. South Korea’s Daegu Gyeongbuk Institute of Science and Technology has developed the world’s first semiconductor chip capable of synchronously measuring multiple biometrics. German scientists combined copper indium gallium selenide with perovskites to push solar cell efficiency beyond 25.5%. A U.S. team created SpudCell, the first synthetic cell with a complete life cycle.

2. Driven by a surge in AI demand, Samsung Electronics expects operating profit in the second quarter to jump by about 18 times year-on-year. The HBM race is intensifying, and Micron’s Japan expansion project worth $9.0 billion has started.

3. Spot gold rose above $4,200 per ounce in early trading, hitting a two-week high. Comex gold futures broke through $4,210 per ounce, propelled by geopolitical developments and rising safe-haven sentiment.

4. Iraq’s cabinet approved in principle a preliminary agreement for a strategic oil export pipeline project. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, and oil prices fell in early Asia trading.

5. Multiple explosions were heard in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital. Trump plans to meet with Zelensky during the NATO summit and push for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has appointed the head of the judiciary again as Justice Director.

6. In the first half of the year, Hong Kong equities saw cumulative share buybacks of over HK$90 billion. Tencent bought back more than HK$24 billion. Risks from crowded trading in technology funds increased, and public-fund capital shifted toward undervalued sectors such as consumer goods and pharmaceuticals.

7. Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun emphasized accelerating the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, and aerospace, and taking a forward-looking layout for future industries including quantum technology and bio-manufacturing.

8. Bank of China has restarted the issuance of 5-year personal large-denomination certificates of deposit, with an annualized rate of 1.55%-1.6%, reflecting banks’ demand for stable long-term funding.

📡 8-hour Recap | July 06, 00:00-08:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets have moved back and forth amid multiple geopolitical flashpoints and policy shifts. Israel’s cabinet made a historic decision to reject a ruling by the Supreme Court, Trump plans to push for an Russia-Ukraine ceasefire during the NATO summit, and disasters such as wildfires in southern France and an earthquake in Venezuela added to a complex geopolitical and macro backdrop. Meanwhile, China A-share trading new rules were officially implemented, OpenAI secretly submitted an IPO application, and Bitcoin rebounded to $63,000, yet ETF outflows continued—showing markets engaged in intense games between risk and opportunity.

Macroeconomy

1. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, as the oil market cools; Germany plans to raise its 2027 borrowing scale to 118 billion euros, due to tax revenue coming in below expectations.

2. The central bank carried out today a 1 trillion yuan (RMB) buyout-style reverse repo operation with a 3-month term, ending a 3-month streak of shrinking volumes for that maturity.

3. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 77%; the market is watching this week’s economic data and remarks from Fed officials.

4. The number of new fund accounts opened in the first half of the year exceeded 1.8 million, the highest for the same period in 6 years. Funds have made big adds, concentrating on hard-tech sectors represented by semiconductors.

5. Spot gold broke through $4,190 per ounce; New York futures gold moved above $4,200 per ounce, up 1.80% for the day. Earlier, gold had plunged nearly 30% before falling into a $4,000 “defense battle.”

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin was close to $63,500 over the weekend, setting a new nearly two-week high, but traders warned that Monday’s price action could be “extremely bad”; over the past 30 days, Ethereum’s net supply increased by 83,550 coins.

2. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for the eighth consecutive week, with net redemptions of about $527 million over four trading days.

3. A “megawhale” opened 15x leverage short positions on BTC on Hyperliquid, indicating strong bearish sentiment; an address linked to sanctioned entities received over $100 billion worth of crypto last year.

4. XRP fell 22% in June, but historical data shows July is usually strong; of the past six Julys, all six closed higher, and five delivered double-digit gains.

5. A Bitcoin wallet that had been dormant since 2011 was activated 14 years later, with returns exceeding 700,000 times.

AI and Technology

1. OpenAI secretly submitted an IPO application, targeting a 2027 listing at a $1 trillion valuation, and proactively giving up 5% equity to the U.S. government to hedge regulatory risk.

2. Micron Technology began a $9.3 billion wafer-fab expansion project in Hiroshima, Japan, to produce AI memory chips such as HBM; the Japanese government will provide subsidies of up to around 500 billion yen.

3. Analyst Guo Mingchi predicts Apple will release a foldable iPhone Ultra in September 2026, priced around $2,299–$2,499, and preorders may be pushed back to the fourth quarter.

4. ByteDance’s Doubao and Alibaba’s Tongyi Qianwen will disable human-like features and user-customized agents by July 15 to comply with China’s new AI interaction rules.

5. NVIDIA rolled out a new revenue-sharing plan: by providing GPU computing power, it will take a share of AI startups’ future sales revenue, strengthening the ecosystem.

Geopolitics

1. Israel’s cabinet rejected, unanimously, a Supreme Court ruling to comply with it—setting a historic precedent. Netanyahu said the troops will remain in Lebanon and reiterated the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

2. The White House confirmed that Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the NATO summit and plans to follow up with Putin, aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as soon as possible.

3. Wildfires continue to spread in southern France; about 10,000 people have been ordered to evacuate. Stage 3 of the Tour de France cycling race will be adjusted and the public will be banned from watching.

4. The death toll from the Venezuela earthquake rose to 3,342, with 16,740 injured—becoming a major macro event in that time period.

5. The Russian military launched multiple rounds of ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, with about 15 explosions occurring within 10 minutes.

Market Sentiment and Focus

Market sentiment is cautious overall, with geopolitical tensions escalating alongside uncertainty in macro policies. Investors are focused on the upcoming NATO summit, the market’s reaction after the new China A-share rules take effect, and whether Bitcoin can break through key resistance levels. Gold’s rebound and the AI funding and investment boom stand in contrast, indicating that both “safe-haven” and “growth” logic are at play.

📡 On-the-hour news | 06:00-07:00

1. Spot gold breaks through $4,190 per ounce; New York futures for gold rise above $4,200 per ounce, up 1.80% for the day.

2. New trading rules for China’s A-shares take effect today. Main boards and ETFs add fixed-price trading after-hours; the price limit for ST stocks is adjusted to 10%.

3. The South Korean won edged higher on its first day of 24-hour trading. The South Korean government has strengthened monitoring of night sessions to address currency pressure.

4. The Ukrainian capital Kyiv was hit by multiple rounds of Russian ballistic missile strikes; about 15 explosions occurred within 10 minutes.

5. U.S. stock index futures rose in early Asian trading. S&P 500 index futures gained 0.4%, and Nasdaq-100 index futures rose 1.2%.

6. Tesla launched a Robotaxi service in Miami without safety monitoring staff, planning to expand to twelve U.S. states by the end of 2026.

7. Norway beat Brazil 2-1 in the World Cup Round of 16 to advance successfully to the quarterfinals.

8. New trading rules for Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges take effect. Brokers revise risk disclosure statements accordingly, and existing investors do not need to re-sign.

📡 Hourly Update | 05:00-06:00

1. Trump plans to meet Zelensky during the NATO summit on July 8, then speak with Putin to push for the conflict in Ukraine to end as soon as possible.

2. The death toll from the Venezuela earthquake has risen to 3,342, with 16,740 injured, making it a major macro event during this period.

3. Bitcoin has broken through 63,000 USDT, but ETFs are still recording a record-setting eighth consecutive week of net outflows, and market volatility continues.

4. The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has warned that AI in the financial services industry may trigger a “arms race,” and that the scope of regulation needs to be expanded to address risks such as algorithmic bias.

5. Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that the foldable iPhone will be assembled and shipped in the second half of 2026 at around 7–8 million units, potentially repeating the delayed release scenario of iPhone X.

6. Since the beginning of early 2026, Ukrainian drone attacks have hit Russian refineries at least 194 times—up to 16 times in a single month—leading to 20%–40% of Russian refining capacity being shut down.

7. In the first half of the year, the number of newly opened fund accounts exceeded 1.8 million, the highest for the same period in six years. Funds have added large positions, especially in hard-tech sectors represented by semiconductors.

8. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 77%. The market is focused on this week’s economic data and remarks by Fed officials.

📡 Hourly News Report | 04:00-05:00

1. Trump calls FIFA President Gianni Infantino to exert pressure. A red-card ban for the U.S. team’s top striker Balogun has been temporarily suspended, allowing him to play in the Round of 16 at the World Cup.

2. Today, the central bank conducts a RMB 1 trillion buyout-style reverse repurchase operation with a maturity of 3 months, bringing an end to the 3-month consecutive de-escalation in volumes at the end of that period.

3. This week, nine ETFs are set to be listed. Individual investors hold a proportion close to 80%. Popular thematic ETFs are favored, but trading activity is frequent.

4. By July 15, ByteDance’s Doubao and Alibaba’s Tongyi Qianwen will disable personified interfaces and user-defined intelligent agents to comply with China’s new AI interaction regulations.

5. In 2025, the Trump family profited more than $1 billion through cryptocurrency. In the same period, Bitcoin plunged 50% from its all-time high, leaving retail investors with heavy losses.

6. Germany raises its borrowing plan for 2027 to €118 billion. Due to weaker tax revenues and higher debt costs, defense and infrastructure spending will not be capped.

7. NVIDIA introduces a new revenue-sharing plan: it will provide GPU computing power in exchange for a cut of future sales from AI startups, strengthening its ecosystem.

8. A base attack by South Sudan’s People’s Defense Forces resulted in the deaths of five soldiers. The government condemns the attack, saying its aim is to disrupt the December elections.

📡 Hourly News Bulletin | 03:00-04:00

1. Wildfires continue to spread in southern France, with about 10,000 people ordered to evacuate. The third stage of the Tour de France cycling race will be adjusted and public spectators will be prohibited.

2. A Reuters investigation shows that most economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July, and then increase them again to 2.75% by the end of September.

3. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for the eighth consecutive week, with net redemptions of about $527 million over four trading days.

4. Dozens of Israeli settlers tried to cross the border into Syria. The IDF detained them and handed them over to the police, with the IDF condemning the incident as serious.

5. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron (Cooper) warned that if countries do not agree on global rules to govern AI development, artificial intelligence will bring “Hiroshima-like” threats.

6. A Bitcoin wallet that had been dormant since 2011 was activated 14 years later, generating returns over 700,000 times.

7. Iran’s head of the judiciary said that the U.S.-Israel talks stemmed from their defeat, vowing to pursue the criminal responsibility of the United States and those involved in the assassination of the former top leader.

8. Sony announced that it will stop producing PS5 physical game discs starting in 2028, and that all new games will be sold only through digital channels.

📡 On-the-hour News | 02:00-03:00

1. Bitcoin rebounded after breaking through the June lows, but it faces a key resistance zone. If it breaks above $65,774, it could trigger $825 million in short liquidations, potentially pushing prices higher.

2. Trump plans to meet with leaders of Ukraine and Syria during the NATO summit to discuss an end to the Russia-Ukraine war and urge NATO allies to increase defense spending.

3. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that Apple will release a foldable-screen iPhone Ultra in September 2026, priced at around $2,299–$2,499. Pre-orders may be delayed to the fourth quarter.

4. New A-share trading rules will officially take effect starting July 6. Key changes include optimizing the Shanghai Stock Exchange fund closing-trading mechanism, expanding the fixed-price trading method after-hours, and adjusting the daily price-movement limits for risk-warning stocks on the main board.

5. Israel’s cabinet unanimously refused to comply with the Supreme Court’s ruling regarding the management of the broadcasting and television authority, setting a historical precedent. The government said it will ignore the relevant ruling.

6. The Long March 10 Y2 rocket is scheduled for its maiden flight from July 10 to 13. It will validate the world’s first “marine network system recovery” technology, signaling that competition in commercial space is shifting toward space-and-atmosphere infrastructure.

7. At a Wang Leehom concert, he accidentally fell and suffered multiple injuries. After 39 stitches, he continued performing and reported that he is safe.

8. About 20 pieces of jewelry were stolen from the Louvre-Lens Museum in France, with losses possibly reaching several million euros. At least six display cases were smashed, and the suspects have fled the scene.

📡 Hourly News Update | 01:00-02:00

1. The White House confirms that Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the NATO summit and plans to follow up with communications with Putin, aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as soon as possible.

2. A senior U.S. official says Trump will announce a defense sales plan worth tens of billions of dollars during the NATO summit, and will also discuss navigation security issues in the Strait of Hormuz.

3. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf emphasizes that the United States is an unreliable negotiating partner; Iran has set clear limits in nuclear talks and will stick to its position.

4. The Chief of the General Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, Herzi Halevi, announces that it has fully taken control of the Beaufort Ridge outpost in southern Lebanon, adding that it will continue to eliminate threats from Lebanon.

5. The first-half underwriting rankings for corporate bonds have been released. China CITIC Securities once again tops the list. The top five firms together account for more than half of the total underwriting amount, as the “Matthew effect” continues to deepen.

6. EasyJet has, in principle, accepted Castlelake’s takeover offer of £6.90 per share, valuing the deal at about £5.2 billion.

7. XRP fell 22% in June, but historical data shows July is usually strong. In the past six Julys, all rose, with five recording double-digit gains.

8. French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Damascus soon, becoming the first Western head of state to visit since the fall of the Assad regime, with the goal of taking part in Syria’s reconstruction.

📡 Top of the Hour Report | 00:00-01:00

1. OpenAI has secretly submitted its IPO application, aiming to go public in 2027 at a valuation of $1 trillion, and is voluntarily ceding 5% equity to the U.S. government to hedge regulatory risks.

2. Micron Technology has launched a $9.3 billion fab expansion project in Hiroshima, Japan, to produce AI storage chips such as HBM; the Japanese government will provide subsidies of up to about 500 billion yen.

3. 58% of U.S. voters believe the Trump administration’s military conflict with Iran is not worth the cost. The White House is seeking an additional $67 billion in federal funding from Congress to cover war expenses.

4. easyJet has, in principle, agreed to Castlelake’s proposed all-cash acquisition offer of £5.2 billion at £6.90 per share, to be taken private and delisted.

5. Bitcoin is approaching $63,500 over the weekend, setting a nearly two-week high, but traders warn that Monday’s outlook could be “extremely bad.” Ethereum’s net supply increased by 83,550 over the past 30 days.

6. After gold prices plunged by nearly 30%, they are now in a “defend $4,000” battle. A hawkish stance from the newly appointed Fed chair, Waller, and a sharp pullback by speculators have put pressure on gold.

7. Wealthy U.S. families use AI to compress learning time to cultivate creativity, while parents in China use AI to strengthen test-prep and drill practice—reflecting starkly different educational choices in the AI era.

8. The Israel Defense Forces say they have fully taken control of Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon. The IDF’s chief of staff says they will continue operations to eliminate threats coming from Lebanon.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 23:00-00:00

1. Israel’s cabinet unanimously rejects compliance with the Supreme Court’s ruling, setting a historic precedent. Netanyahu says the forces will continue to remain in Lebanon, and reiterates the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

2. In Mianzhu City, Sichuan, three earthquakes hit within half an hour (4.5, 4.0, and 4.5). Netizens in many areas received early warnings, and the shaking was strong.

3. OPEC+ agrees to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, as the oil market cools. Germany plans to raise its borrowing scale for 2027, due to tax revenue coming in below expectations.

4. The CSRC revises refinancing rules for listed companies, optimizing eight mechanisms such as fast financing for small amounts and placement pricing of share issuances, to enhance inclusiveness in the capital markets.

5. Several A-share companies release their first-half performance forecasts. Yongding Co., Ltd. expects net profit to increase by 57%-120%. Oriental Shenghong expects net profit to rise by 987%-1,195%.

6. Affected by Typhoon “Maysak,” Liuzhou in Guangxi issues a red rainstorm warning. Twenty-nine rivers exceed alert levels, and the Fangcheng River sees the largest flooding since 1982.

7. SK hynix is considering listing in the U.S. to attract more AI investors. It expects AI capital expenditures to reach $1.1 trillion by 2027—possibly surpassing U.S. defense spending for the first time.

8. A giant whale shorts BTC on Hyperliquid with 15x leverage, indicating strong bearish sentiment. Addresses linked to entities under sanctions received more than $100 billion in cryptocurrency last year.

📡 Daily News Snapshot | July 05

Over the past 24 hours, global markets have moved sideways in a fierce tug-of-war between escalating geopolitical risks and structural opportunities. The U.S. and Iran announced they would pause talks for a week; Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral in Iran introduced new variables into the Middle East situation; and safety for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz became the focus. After sharp swings, the cryptocurrency market rebounded—Bitcoin is back above $63,000—but panic sentiment and tightening regulation coexist. Competition in the AI sector is heating up; domestic chips have achieved milestone breakthroughs, yet concerns about a bubble and increased divergence in earnings have intensified. Investors should watch for policy signals from next week’s Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meeting minutes, while also tracking progress in U.S.-Iran talks and the persistence of demand for AI hardware.

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📊 Global Macro

1. Weak U.S. employment data: In June, full-time employment fell by 514,000 to 133.66 million, the lowest since December 2024. It declined for three straight months and has dropped a cumulative 2.24 million since January, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will restart rate cuts in October.

2. OPEC+ confirms production increases: In principle, it agreed to raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. Brent crude is nearing $70. Wall Street warns of possible oversupply next year, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

3. China’s logistics and consumption rebound: June’s logistics business confidence index rose to 50.6%. Express parcel volume has already exceeded 100 billion deliveries (9 days earlier than last year). The commodity price index edged down slightly, easing cost pressures for enterprises.

4. U.S. Treasury interest costs hit a record: Total Treasury debt stands at $39 trillion. Annual interest expense is about $1 trillion, worsening fiscal pressure; the Department of Defense has launched a $300 million carbonated lithium strategic reserve program.

5. Regulatory overhaul under the Trump administration: Plans to repeal 702 administrative regulations, expected to save $1.5 trillion in costs. The redesign of U.S. dollar banknotes includes a printed Trump signature.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin rebounds to $63,000: Over the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the market were $239 million (mainly long liquidations), and analysts expect a potential rebound to $70,000 in July. But a surge in exchange deposits suggests volatility may increase.

2. Diverging ETF fund flows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for the eighth consecutive week, setting a historical record. However, a daily inflow reversal occurred. Coinbase’s negative premium set the longest record, indicating weak U.S. demand.

3. Dense regulatory and compliance developments: Europe’s Revolut delisted USDT due to MiCA authorization issues. A Germany-based bank will open crypto trading to 50 million customers. South Africa released guidelines on taxation for crypto assets.

4. Meme coin bubble bursts: Nearly one million investors collectively lost $3.81 billion on Trump-themed tokens. Meme coins’ market-cap share fell to 3.7%, the lowest in three years, as capital rotates toward more stable assets.

5. Progress in the Ethereum ecosystem: Vitalik published a “simplified” roadmap aimed at reducing transaction costs by more than 10x through native STARK verification. Next week, token unlocks worth over $1.1 billion will occur, and the market is watching liquidity risks.

🤖 AI & Technology

1. Landmark breakthrough in domestic chips: Peking University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly developed the world’s first memristor neuromorphic dynamics chip. Brain-modeling speed is reportedly 50–478x faster than NVIDIA A100, and the achievement was featured in the journal *Science*.

2. AI giants’ competition intensifies: Reports say OpenAI will release GPT-5.6 next week. Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro is expected to launch on July 17. Anthropic has started developing its own AI chips, and NVIDIA has introduced the HORIZON and ASPIRE frameworks.

3. AI hardware demand remains robust: Hon Hai’s June sales rose 52.1% year over year. YD Technology Co. Ltd. expects net profit growth of 57%–120% in the first half. Chengbo Dragon’s net profit surged 74,393%, highlighting an explosion in demand for AI compute power.

4. Concerns about an AI bubble emerge: Yunzhisheng’s share price plummeted 90%. Hongbo shares fell 80% due to alleged earnings fraud and internal infighting. This has raised market concerns about the downsides of an “AI project-based” model and the risks of hype-driven speculation.

5. New regulations hit AI applications: ByteDance and Alibaba will discontinue AI humanoid agent functions on July 15 for complying with the “Interim Measures for the Administration of Humanlike Interactive Services by Artificial Intelligence.” Apple’s Siri AI goes live in the fall only for iPhone 15 Pro models and above.

🌍 Geopolitics

1. U.S.-Iran talks paused for one week: Trump said both sides decided to pause talks until the end of Khamenei’s funeral, during which there will be no firing between them. Iran plans to charge service fees for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz under international standards, and Oman’s sea-lane shipping has seen a sharp reduction.

2. Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues: Russian forces claim they control four residential settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. A roughly 1 hour 25 minute phone call between Putin and Trump reiterated a preference for resolving the conflict through political and diplomatic means. Zelensky and Trump agreed to meet during the NATO summit.

3. Middle East situation grows more complicated: Netanyahu plans to visit the White House next week. Israel has confirmed for the first time that it deployed the “Iron Dome” system to the UAE. A Hamas delegation met with Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran, reaffirming support for the Palestinian cause.

4. Joint China-Russia military drills: The two countries announced that in July they will hold a “Joint Naval-2026” joint exercise near Qingdao, and they will also organize joint naval patrols in relevant areas of the Pacific.

5. U.S. extreme weather and security incidents: More than 165 million people face a rare heatwave, and the Washington Metro derailed due to extreme heat. A shooting incident occurred in New York’s Coney Island, injuring 8 people.

📈 Stock Market Updates

1. Clear divergence in A-share performance: Dongfang Shenghong expects first-half net profit to rise 987%–1,195% year over year. China Merchants Energy Shipping (CMES) is up 214%–248%. However, more than 52 billion yuan in funds reportedly withdrew from technology stocks, and Nomura believes AI demand growth has not yet peaked.

2. Revised rules for refinancing: The CSRC will establish a shelf issuance system for targeted placements, standardizing the pricing benchmark date as the first day of the issuance period and extending the lock-up period to 36 months, compressing arbitrage space.

3. Thematic investing and bubble warning: Xingye Technology won a seventh consecutive daily limit after planning to acquire indium phosphide business, and the CSRC issued a warning

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