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"Decoding liquidity games for the 10% who win. | Alpha drops for those who tip & level up."
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🚨 THIS COULD BE A GAME CHANGER FOR METALS AND RISK ASSETS
Big news emerged yesterday: Russia is seriously considering returning to dollar-based settlements as part of a broader economic partnership with President Trump.
For the past 3–4 years, Russia has been the loudest voice pushing de-dollarisation, dumping USD assets and encouraging others to do the same. That narrative fueled the entire “death of the dollar” trade.
A bunch of countries followed, slashing Treasury holdings and piling into gold and silver, which is why the DXY bled lower and precious metals went parabolic.
But if Russia flips back to the dollar, that whole trade could collapse overnight.
Higher USD demand would strengthen the dollar, and a strong dollar has always been toxic for commodities.
Metals would take the biggest hit. The entire “currency debasement hedge” story falls apart.
Equities and crypto would feel pain too, but probably short-lived.
Why? A Russia–U.S. energy partnership would flood markets with supply, lower inflation, create a less hawkish Fed, and reduced uncertainty.
This would lower the odds of rate cuts, but clarity is rocket fuel for risk assets.
Remember, Bitcoin ripped higher in 2023 even with rate hikes and QT.
Stocks and crypto thrive on certainty. If this deal actually happens, it’s medium to long-l term bullish for both.
Gold and silver could be starting a multi-year bear market. 👀
Big news emerged yesterday: Russia is seriously considering returning to dollar-based settlements as part of a broader economic partnership with President Trump.
For the past 3–4 years, Russia has been the loudest voice pushing de-dollarisation, dumping USD assets and encouraging others to do the same. That narrative fueled the entire “death of the dollar” trade.
A bunch of countries followed, slashing Treasury holdings and piling into gold and silver, which is why the DXY bled lower and precious metals went parabolic.
But if Russia flips back to the dollar, that whole trade could collapse overnight.
Higher USD demand would strengthen the dollar, and a strong dollar has always been toxic for commodities.
Metals would take the biggest hit. The entire “currency debasement hedge” story falls apart.
Equities and crypto would feel pain too, but probably short-lived.
Why? A Russia–U.S. energy partnership would flood markets with supply, lower inflation, create a less hawkish Fed, and reduced uncertainty.
This would lower the odds of rate cuts, but clarity is rocket fuel for risk assets.
Remember, Bitcoin ripped higher in 2023 even with rate hikes and QT.
Stocks and crypto thrive on certainty. If this deal actually happens, it’s medium to long-l term bullish for both.
Gold and silver could be starting a multi-year bear market. 👀
💥THIS IS BIG
ALL ETHEREUM ETF BUYERS ARE CLOSE TO BEING IN A LOSS
Spot Ethereum ETFs went live on 23 July 2024 with $ETH at $3,480
To date, ETH has gone as low as $1,385 in April 2025 since the ETFs went live
However, this came out of US trading hours. In reality, ETF buyers had the chance to buy as low as $1,450
That means the only ETF buyers in a profit are the ones who bought below the current price of $1,919
If ETH were to drop another 25% and go below $1,450, it would leave all possible bottom buyers from April 2025 also in the red
ALL ETHEREUM ETF BUYERS ARE CLOSE TO BEING IN A LOSS
Spot Ethereum ETFs went live on 23 July 2024 with $ETH at $3,480
To date, ETH has gone as low as $1,385 in April 2025 since the ETFs went live
However, this came out of US trading hours. In reality, ETF buyers had the chance to buy as low as $1,450
That means the only ETF buyers in a profit are the ones who bought below the current price of $1,919
If ETH were to drop another 25% and go below $1,450, it would leave all possible bottom buyers from April 2025 also in the red
My 2026 bull run outlook:
February → Bear trap setting the stage
March → Bitcoin breakout gains momentum
April → Altcoins take the spotlight
May → New all-time high around $215K
June → Bull trap catches late buyers
July → Heavy liquidation wave
August → Bear market officially begins
For over a decade, I’ve consistently called major market tops and bottoms.
I was among the few who identified the October top — and I’ll do it again.
.
February → Bear trap setting the stage
March → Bitcoin breakout gains momentum
April → Altcoins take the spotlight
May → New all-time high around $215K
June → Bull trap catches late buyers
July → Heavy liquidation wave
August → Bear market officially begins
For over a decade, I’ve consistently called major market tops and bottoms.
I was among the few who identified the October top — and I’ll do it again.
.
🚨 GOLD & SILVER ARE CRASHING
$4.5 TRILLION wiped out in minutes.
Macro risk is stacking up all at once and markets are starting to panic.
Metals, stocks, crypto, and real estate will take the hardest hit.
If you hold any assets right now, you MUST know what’s coming next:
1⃣ Government Shutdown Risk
Funding deadlines are closing in, and United States Congress is still deadlocked.
A shutdown would freeze spending, delay key data, hit growth expectations, and inject pure uncertainty into risk assets.
2⃣ Bond Market Stress
Heavy Treasury issuance is colliding with weak demand.
Yields are pushing higher, liquidity is getting drained, and pressure is bleeding into equities, metals, and crypto.
3⃣ Fed Policy Fog
Inflation isn’t cooling fast enough, rate cuts keep getting pushed out, and the market no longer has a clear Fed backstop.
4⃣ Equity Valuations
Stocks are priced for a soft landing while macro conditions scream hard decisions.
That gap is closing fast.
5⃣ Liquidity Tightening
QT, rising real rates, and dollar strength are squeezing global markets at the same time.
All of this is hammering gold and silver.
Safe havens don’t work when liquidity disappears.
And then there’s the geopolitical wildcard.
The de-dollarization narrative may be cracking.
Russia is reportedly considering a pivot back toward the U.S. dollar to secure a major economic partnership with Donald Trump.
Potential framework:
Energy Hegemony: A bilateral grip on global fossil fuel markets.
LNG Strategy: Massive capital flowing into joint natural gas infrastructure.
Resource Control: Offshore assets and the critical minerals supply chain.
Economic Advantage: Preferential treatment for U.S. commercial interests.
King Dollar Returns: Russia steps back from BRICS and leans into USD.
The global financial system is being dismantled and rebuilt in real time.
The next few days will be extremely volatile. I’ll keep you updated as this plays out.
I’ve called every major market top and bottom over the last 10 years, and I’ll do it again soon.
$4.5 TRILLION wiped out in minutes.
Macro risk is stacking up all at once and markets are starting to panic.
Metals, stocks, crypto, and real estate will take the hardest hit.
If you hold any assets right now, you MUST know what’s coming next:
1⃣ Government Shutdown Risk
Funding deadlines are closing in, and United States Congress is still deadlocked.
A shutdown would freeze spending, delay key data, hit growth expectations, and inject pure uncertainty into risk assets.
2⃣ Bond Market Stress
Heavy Treasury issuance is colliding with weak demand.
Yields are pushing higher, liquidity is getting drained, and pressure is bleeding into equities, metals, and crypto.
3⃣ Fed Policy Fog
Inflation isn’t cooling fast enough, rate cuts keep getting pushed out, and the market no longer has a clear Fed backstop.
4⃣ Equity Valuations
Stocks are priced for a soft landing while macro conditions scream hard decisions.
That gap is closing fast.
5⃣ Liquidity Tightening
QT, rising real rates, and dollar strength are squeezing global markets at the same time.
All of this is hammering gold and silver.
Safe havens don’t work when liquidity disappears.
And then there’s the geopolitical wildcard.
The de-dollarization narrative may be cracking.
Russia is reportedly considering a pivot back toward the U.S. dollar to secure a major economic partnership with Donald Trump.
Potential framework:
Energy Hegemony: A bilateral grip on global fossil fuel markets.
LNG Strategy: Massive capital flowing into joint natural gas infrastructure.
Resource Control: Offshore assets and the critical minerals supply chain.
Economic Advantage: Preferential treatment for U.S. commercial interests.
King Dollar Returns: Russia steps back from BRICS and leans into USD.
The global financial system is being dismantled and rebuilt in real time.
The next few days will be extremely volatile. I’ll keep you updated as this plays out.
I’ve called every major market top and bottom over the last 10 years, and I’ll do it again soon.
🚨 WARNING: A BIG STORM IS COMING!!!
Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates to 1.00% in April, according to Bank of America.
Japan hasn’t been at 1.00% since the mid 1990s.
And if you think Japan has no impact on global markets
YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG.
Let me explain this in simple words:
The last time Japan was in this zone, the world was already getting hit.
In 1994, bonds got wrecked in the “Great Bond Massacre” about $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value got wiped out.
Then in early 1995, stress kept stacking.
And the yen went NUCLEAR.
On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY hit about 79.75
a record low for the dollar.
Now here’s the part people forget.
Japan tried higher rates, then had to CUT again later that year
BOJ took the discount rate down to 0.50% in September 1995.
That one fact explains a lot.
Because when Japan tightens into a fragile setup, it doesn’t stay “local”.
Japan is the CHEAP MONEY hub.
And Japan is a GIANT global holder.
Japan owns about $1.2 TRILLION of U.S. Treasuries.
So if Japan tightens, the whole world feels it through funding and flows.
THIS IS A WARNING.
Not because “rates went up”.
Because the last time we were here, the system was already under stress
and it forced reactions fast.
Markets are not pricing it now.
But they will.
I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates to 1.00% in April, according to Bank of America.
Japan hasn’t been at 1.00% since the mid 1990s.
And if you think Japan has no impact on global markets
YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG.
Let me explain this in simple words:
The last time Japan was in this zone, the world was already getting hit.
In 1994, bonds got wrecked in the “Great Bond Massacre” about $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value got wiped out.
Then in early 1995, stress kept stacking.
And the yen went NUCLEAR.
On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY hit about 79.75
a record low for the dollar.
Now here’s the part people forget.
Japan tried higher rates, then had to CUT again later that year
BOJ took the discount rate down to 0.50% in September 1995.
That one fact explains a lot.
Because when Japan tightens into a fragile setup, it doesn’t stay “local”.
Japan is the CHEAP MONEY hub.
And Japan is a GIANT global holder.
Japan owns about $1.2 TRILLION of U.S. Treasuries.
So if Japan tightens, the whole world feels it through funding and flows.
THIS IS A WARNING.
Not because “rates went up”.
Because the last time we were here, the system was already under stress
and it forced reactions fast.
Markets are not pricing it now.
But they will.
I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
🚨 THIS IS BAD FOR METALS AND EQUITIES
Yesterday, it was reported that Russia is considering moving back to the US dollar as part of a wide-ranging economic partnership with President Trump.
In the past 3–4 years, Russia has strongly advocated reducing reliance on the USD, fueling the major "de-dollarization trade" narrative.
Several other countries have followed suit, reducing exposure to dollar assets — a key reason for the DXY's decline.
The massive rally in gold and silver has also been driven by this trend, as countries dump Treasuries and buy precious metals.
But now this trade may be over.
Russia is now planning to shift toward a dollar-based settlement system, which would boost USD demand.
A stronger USD has historically been bearish for assets, so metals, equities, and crypto will suffer.
Metals will be hit hardest, as a strong USD undermines the debasement trade narrative.
For equities and crypto, it will be bearish but likely not for long.
With more energy supply entering markets after a Russia–US partnership, inflation will drop and the Fed will become less hawkish.
This reduces the odds of monetary easing, but at least removes Fed uncertainty.
Remember, BTC rose in 2023 despite Fed rate hikes and QT.
Risk-on assets love certainty — if this deal is finalized, it will be mid- to long-term bullish for stocks and crypto.
Gold and silver, however, could enter a multi-year downtrend.
Yesterday, it was reported that Russia is considering moving back to the US dollar as part of a wide-ranging economic partnership with President Trump.
In the past 3–4 years, Russia has strongly advocated reducing reliance on the USD, fueling the major "de-dollarization trade" narrative.
Several other countries have followed suit, reducing exposure to dollar assets — a key reason for the DXY's decline.
The massive rally in gold and silver has also been driven by this trend, as countries dump Treasuries and buy precious metals.
But now this trade may be over.
Russia is now planning to shift toward a dollar-based settlement system, which would boost USD demand.
A stronger USD has historically been bearish for assets, so metals, equities, and crypto will suffer.
Metals will be hit hardest, as a strong USD undermines the debasement trade narrative.
For equities and crypto, it will be bearish but likely not for long.
With more energy supply entering markets after a Russia–US partnership, inflation will drop and the Fed will become less hawkish.
This reduces the odds of monetary easing, but at least removes Fed uncertainty.
Remember, BTC rose in 2023 despite Fed rate hikes and QT.
Risk-on assets love certainty — if this deal is finalized, it will be mid- to long-term bullish for stocks and crypto.
Gold and silver, however, could enter a multi-year downtrend.
🚨POWELL IS IN A BIG TROUBLE NOW.
Just now, US CPI and Core CPI data got released.
CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, while Core CPI came in at 2.5% vs. 2.5% expected.
The US CPI is now at its lowest level since April 2025, right before when tariffs were imposed.
Core CPI is at its lowest level in almost 5 years, when the entire US economy was in lockdown.
This means, despite the Fed's claims of inflation heating up, it's trending lower.
Meanwhile, the other aspect of the US economy is breaking.
The labor market is getting worse.
Credit card delinquencies are rising.
Corporate bankruptcies are hitting 2008 crisis levels.
This is a clear sign that the Fed has committed a huge policy mistake.
The Fed has been hawkish for longer than expected, which is harming the US economy.
In 2020-21, they remained dovish longer than expected, which caused inflation to spike.
This time, the real risk is deflation, which is far worse than inflation.
With each passing day, it feels like Trump's comments around "Too Late Powell" are true.
Just now, US CPI and Core CPI data got released.
CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, while Core CPI came in at 2.5% vs. 2.5% expected.
The US CPI is now at its lowest level since April 2025, right before when tariffs were imposed.
Core CPI is at its lowest level in almost 5 years, when the entire US economy was in lockdown.
This means, despite the Fed's claims of inflation heating up, it's trending lower.
Meanwhile, the other aspect of the US economy is breaking.
The labor market is getting worse.
Credit card delinquencies are rising.
Corporate bankruptcies are hitting 2008 crisis levels.
This is a clear sign that the Fed has committed a huge policy mistake.
The Fed has been hawkish for longer than expected, which is harming the US economy.
In 2020-21, they remained dovish longer than expected, which caused inflation to spike.
This time, the real risk is deflation, which is far worse than inflation.
With each passing day, it feels like Trump's comments around "Too Late Powell" are true.
very disturbing time for global economy actually we saw a reset time for global economy
Silver crashes under $80, falling over 7% today
#crypto
#crypto
congratulations 👏
If $PEPE hits $100, I’ll become a billionaire 🤑🤑
BREAKING: Russia is considering moving back to the US Dollar as part of a wide-ranging economic partnership with President Trump, per Bloomberg.
The partnership would include:
1. US and Russia working together on fossil fuels
2. Joint investments in natural gas
3. Offshore oil and critical raw material partnerships
4. Windfalls for US companies
5. Russia’s return to the USD settlement system
If finalized, this deal would change the global economy.
The partnership would include:
1. US and Russia working together on fossil fuels
2. Joint investments in natural gas
3. Offshore oil and critical raw material partnerships
4. Windfalls for US companies
5. Russia’s return to the USD settlement system
If finalized, this deal would change the global economy.
🩸CRASH:
Gold and silver wiped out $1.4 TRILLION in just 20 minutes.
Gold and silver wiped out $1.4 TRILLION in just 20 minutes.
JUST IN: Silver crashes under $80, falling over 7% today.
JUST IN: Gold falls below $4,900, dropping over 4% in 30 minutes.
🚨US JOB DATA JUST SHOCKED EVERYONE
Everyone was waiting for a weak job print after Kevin Hassett's comment yesterday.
But the exact opposite happened.
The unemployment rate came in at 4.3% vs. 4.4% expected.
The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, the highest since April 2025.
The US private sector added 172,000 jobs in January, the highest level in a year.
This was a strong job report, which means March rate cuts are probably off the table now.
Everyone was waiting for a weak job print after Kevin Hassett's comment yesterday.
But the exact opposite happened.
The unemployment rate came in at 4.3% vs. 4.4% expected.
The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, the highest since April 2025.
The US private sector added 172,000 jobs in January, the highest level in a year.
This was a strong job report, which means March rate cuts are probably off the table now.
CCS Nod Imminent for India’s 84 Su-30MKI ‘Super Sukhoi’ Upgrade... 🇮🇳✈️
> Final approval from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) expected within weeks
> HAL CMD confirms technical configuration for 84 Su-30MKI jets has been frozen
> Upgrade cost estimated at ₹60,000–65,000 crore
> Aims to convert the backbone of the IAF into a 4.5+ generation “Super Sukhoi” platform
📌 What’s Coming in the Upgrade
> Indigenous Virupaksha AESA radar (GaN-based), replacing older Russian PESA
> Detection range expected to rise by 1.5–1.7x
> Integration of Astra Mk1 & Mk2 BVR missiles and Rudram anti-radiation missiles
> Full indigenous electronic warfare suite
> New glass cockpit, advanced mission computer & upgraded avionics architecture
📌 Here's Why It Matters
> Su-30MKI fleet is the backbone of India’s air power
> Mid-life upgrade critical as jets enter second decade of service
> Enhances long-range strike, air dominance & electronic warfare capabilities
> Extends service life into 2040s–2050s
👉 HAL’s Nashik division is ready to begin work the moment CCS clears the file.
This is not just an upgrade... It’s India future-proofing its air dominance until AMCA arrives.
> Final approval from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) expected within weeks
> HAL CMD confirms technical configuration for 84 Su-30MKI jets has been frozen
> Upgrade cost estimated at ₹60,000–65,000 crore
> Aims to convert the backbone of the IAF into a 4.5+ generation “Super Sukhoi” platform
📌 What’s Coming in the Upgrade
> Indigenous Virupaksha AESA radar (GaN-based), replacing older Russian PESA
> Detection range expected to rise by 1.5–1.7x
> Integration of Astra Mk1 & Mk2 BVR missiles and Rudram anti-radiation missiles
> Full indigenous electronic warfare suite
> New glass cockpit, advanced mission computer & upgraded avionics architecture
📌 Here's Why It Matters
> Su-30MKI fleet is the backbone of India’s air power
> Mid-life upgrade critical as jets enter second decade of service
> Enhances long-range strike, air dominance & electronic warfare capabilities
> Extends service life into 2040s–2050s
👉 HAL’s Nashik division is ready to begin work the moment CCS clears the file.
This is not just an upgrade... It’s India future-proofing its air dominance until AMCA arrives.
India’s AI Impact Summit Just Became the World’s AI Power Table 🇮🇳🔥
India to host the biggest names shaping global AI policy and infrastructure. This isn’t symbolic... it’s strategic.
> Sundar Pichai — CEO, Google
> Sam Altman — CEO, OpenAI
> Jensen Huang — Founder & CEO, NVIDIA
> Demis Hassabis — CEO, Google DeepMind
> Dario Amodei — CEO, Anthropic
> Arthur Mensch — CEO, Mistral AI
> Bill Gates — Co-founder, Microsoft
> Brad Smith — President, Microsoft
> Shantanu Narayen — CEO, Adobe
> Julie Sweet — CEO, Accenture
> Cristiano Amon — CEO, Qualcomm
> Matthew Prince — CEO, Cloudflare
When the architects of compute, models, chips, and cloud all show up in one place... that place becomes the center of gravity.
👉 India isn’t just participating in the AI race anymore... It’s positioning itself to shape the rules.
India to host the biggest names shaping global AI policy and infrastructure. This isn’t symbolic... it’s strategic.
> Sundar Pichai — CEO, Google
> Sam Altman — CEO, OpenAI
> Jensen Huang — Founder & CEO, NVIDIA
> Demis Hassabis — CEO, Google DeepMind
> Dario Amodei — CEO, Anthropic
> Arthur Mensch — CEO, Mistral AI
> Bill Gates — Co-founder, Microsoft
> Brad Smith — President, Microsoft
> Shantanu Narayen — CEO, Adobe
> Julie Sweet — CEO, Accenture
> Cristiano Amon — CEO, Qualcomm
> Matthew Prince — CEO, Cloudflare
When the architects of compute, models, chips, and cloud all show up in one place... that place becomes the center of gravity.
👉 India isn’t just participating in the AI race anymore... It’s positioning itself to shape the rules.
BUY. ALTCOINS. NOW.
They will 50x-100x on average.
They will 50x-100x on average.
BREAKING NEWS: When your income increases, please tell nobody. Improve your life, invest, and keep your mouth shut.
🚨Massive: AMCA Program Fast Tracked: ₹15,000 Crore Cleared, Prototypes From 2028
India’s fifth-generation fighter jet program, AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft), has entered a decisive execution phase with strict timelines and a ₹15,000 crore prototype allocation.
In a major structural shift, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited has been moved out of the primary execution framework. Instead, the Ministry of Defence has adopted a competitive private-sector partnership model. Seven bidders, including Larsen & Toubro, Tata Advanced Systems Limited, Adani Defence & Aerospace and Bharat Forge, are in contention. Two will be shortlisted and funded to build five prototypes.
Clear Deadlines
🔹First prototype rollout: 2028
🔹First flight: 2029
🔹Five prototypes: 2028–2031 (one every 9 months)
🔹Certification phase: 2032–2033
🔹Serial production: 2034–2035
🔹IAF induction: 2035–2036
The staggered rollout allows flight testing and development to run simultaneously, reducing delays.
Bigger Strategic Push
The prototype funding comes alongside a broader defence capex push, including ₹63,733 crore earmarked for aircraft and engine development. Defence Research and Development Organisation and Gas Turbine Research Establishment have also invited private players to develop an indigenous 110 kN engine for AMCA.
Why It Matters
If executed on schedule, AMCA will place India alongside the United States, China, and Russia, the only nations currently operating fifth-generation fighters.
With funding locked, deadlines fixed, and private industry onboard, AMCA is no longer a distant ambition. It is now a time-bound national priority.
India’s fifth-generation fighter jet program, AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft), has entered a decisive execution phase with strict timelines and a ₹15,000 crore prototype allocation.
In a major structural shift, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited has been moved out of the primary execution framework. Instead, the Ministry of Defence has adopted a competitive private-sector partnership model. Seven bidders, including Larsen & Toubro, Tata Advanced Systems Limited, Adani Defence & Aerospace and Bharat Forge, are in contention. Two will be shortlisted and funded to build five prototypes.
Clear Deadlines
🔹First prototype rollout: 2028
🔹First flight: 2029
🔹Five prototypes: 2028–2031 (one every 9 months)
🔹Certification phase: 2032–2033
🔹Serial production: 2034–2035
🔹IAF induction: 2035–2036
The staggered rollout allows flight testing and development to run simultaneously, reducing delays.
Bigger Strategic Push
The prototype funding comes alongside a broader defence capex push, including ₹63,733 crore earmarked for aircraft and engine development. Defence Research and Development Organisation and Gas Turbine Research Establishment have also invited private players to develop an indigenous 110 kN engine for AMCA.
Why It Matters
If executed on schedule, AMCA will place India alongside the United States, China, and Russia, the only nations currently operating fifth-generation fighters.
With funding locked, deadlines fixed, and private industry onboard, AMCA is no longer a distant ambition. It is now a time-bound national priority.
Real talk.
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