CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bitcoin's 30-day Spot Demand recovered sharply to around -80K BTC in early July but has since deteriorated again to nearly -170K BTC.
Despite this significant decline in spot demand, Bitcoin's price has remained relatively stable, mainly due to easing short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market.
However, derivatives demand remains insufficient to support a sustainable uptrend on its own. This leaves the market in a structurally fragile state, where renewed spot selling could trigger a sharp downside move.
If spot selling stays muted, derivatives-driven momentum may continue to fuel a technical rebound for a while. However, the rally without meaningful spot demand is likely to end in a significant long liquidation event.
Written by ScenarioX

Observation
Recent ensemble modeling shows a market resting on a decision boundary. The 7-signal ensemble (v1) registers a “Moderate Bull” consensus (4/7 votes), driven by MACD and rising Open Interest (+0.74σ). This is now reflected in price, with BTC recovering to $64,792 (+1.59% over 7 days). However, adding a single structural metric—the Realized Price Age-Band Crossover (v2)—flips the consensus to Bear (4/8), cutting exposure from 100% to 30%. This bullish lean rests on a knife’s edge.
Context
This division stems from a disagreement between short-term momentum and long-term valuation structure. While price attempts a recovery, the Realized Price bands remain “Lean Bearish,” with 4 of 5 age-band pairs still inverted. The strongest divergence is the 1m_3m vs 6m_12m band, showing a persistent -26.3% spread since January. Despite the price uptick, recent buyers’ cost basis has not yet reclaimed dominance over veteran holders—a signature often tied to distribution phases.
Comparison
Historical validation adds context. The momentum-heavy v1 model has favored higher returns (CAGR +60.5%), whereas the structural v2 model prioritizes capital preservation (MaxDD ~-40% vs. B&H -76%). The RP model’s walk-forward validation shows a full-cycle Sharpe of 1.27, with 2025 performance (+23% to +29%) outperforming a declining Buy & Hold (-34.6%). Recovering price against a bearish structure leaves both frameworks in genuine disagreement.
Potential Outcome
A market where reviving momentum tests unbroken structural resistance typically indicates a low-conviction, transitional phase. The recovery to $64.8k is encouraging, but until the Realized Price bands normalize—confirming recent buyers gaining conviction—these conditions have historically preceded periods where the structural signal (RP) eventually dictates the trend. Watching whether price can drag the age-bands out of inversion will be key.
Written by CryptoOnchain

The signal
- The Puell Multiple's low for this cycle is 0.53, its highest cycle bottom on record; today it sits at 0.84. Daily readings are noisy, so what matters is how low it falls, not today's print.
- It compares what miners earn today from newly created bitcoin against their 365-day average. A low reading means miner income is well below normal.
The history
- Each cycle's low has landed higher: near 0.28 in December 2018, 0.35 in July 2022, 0.49 in September 2024, and 0.53 in June 2026 (this cycle is still open, so provisional).
- A low Puell Multiple is often called a bottom signal, but the honest version is narrower. Since 2013, readings below 0.65 brought a median 180-day gain near +55%, about twice a random entry (+28%), with drawdowns capped around 30-40% versus the 60-70% of deep bears.
- The edge is the size of the move, not the odds. Only 57-67% of those episodes ended higher after 180 days, barely above Bitcoin's 63% baseline. July 2022 shows the signal can still fail.
What it means
- These bottoms are getting shallower, and the four-year supply cut (the halving) is not the cause: the metric scales both sides of its ratio, so cutting new supply cancels out. The real driver: price falls less each cycle (down 83% in 2018, 77% in 2022, less since), so miner income never sinks as deep.
- The 2024 and 2026 lows came with price still high, so they are Puell lows, not price bottoms. Waiting for the classic sub-0.5 zone, where miners sell at a loss, may mean waiting for a level that no longer prints. Today reads as easing miner pressure, not a generational low. It turns decisive only if it holds beneath recent lows for weeks.
Written by thechessONCHAIN

It has now been nearly 165 days since BTC has been testing this key $60,000 level, and this despite a push above $80,000 in May that failed to hold or reignite Bitcoin's upward momentum.
Among the reasons behind this configuration, the lack of fresh liquidity entering the market stands out as a central factor. Whether for direct exposure to BTC or to the broader crypto market as a whole, fresh demand is struggling to materialize.
Looking at the evolution of stablecoin reserves on exchanges, the picture has been particularly negative since the start of the year, with a near-constant decline reflecting a clear dominance of outflows over inflows.
Over the past 30 days alone, $1.55B in stablecoins have left Binance's reserves, an outflow that remains highly significant at this timeframe. The picture is just as striking on Bybit, with -$786M over the same period, bringing the combined total to nearly $2.3B across these two exchanges alone.
This decline in reserves sends a clear signal: incoming demand and liquidity are contracting, and investors appear to be favoring the withdrawal of their stablecoins from exchanges, when they aren't leaving the market altogether.
It is therefore this still-too-pessimistic market-wide positioning that continues to deprive BTC of the resources it needs to durably break out of this consolidation zone.
Written by Darkfost

CryptoQuant’s 14-day average altcoin–BTC correlation is ~0.26–0.27, signaling reduced synchronization with Bitcoin.
A similar low-correlation regime was also visible in early May, when altcoins moved less in lockstep with BTC.
Lower correlation does not confirm bullish decoupling; it reflects co-movement rather than broad relative strength.
As rebounds mature, participation across altcoins can narrow to fewer leaders. This points to fragmentation rather than broad altcoin strength.
If BTC starts to pull back, this dispersion can unwind, and the market may revert to BTC-led behavior.
Key takeaway: Low altcoin–BTC correlation is a dispersion warning; watch for BTC-led re-synchronization on pullbacks.
Written by Zizcrypto

A notable divergence is emerging across Bitcoin holder cohorts, with larger whales accumulating while mid-sized wallets distribute at an increasingly aggressive pace.
Wallets holding 1K~10K BTC increased their 60-day net accumulation to approximately 66,700 BTC, approaching the 68,000 BTC level recorded on June 16.
This is the cohort’s strongest accumulation reading since February 17, when net accumulation briefly exceeded 106,000 BTC.
In contrast, wallets holding 100~1K BTC recorded net distribution of approximately 77,800 BTC, marking one of the most aggressive selling periods visible in the current data.
Historical Contrast
The behavior of the 100~1K BTC cohort has previously coincided with important short-term market turning points.
On April 25, this group recorded net accumulation of more than 92,000 BTC. Around 10 days later, Bitcoin entered a short-term correction that eventually reached approximately -29%.
The current setup shows the opposite behavior: the same cohort is now distributing heavily while the larger 1K~10K BTC cohort continues to accumulate.
Market Implication
The divergence suggests that Bitcoin supply is currently shifting from mid-sized holders toward larger whale wallets.
Historically, sustained accumulation by larger holders can reduce the amount of immediately available supply, particularly when it occurs during periods of aggressive distribution from smaller cohorts.
While cohort data alone cannot confirm the next price direction, the current transfer of supply toward larger wallets presents a potentially constructive medium-term signal for Bitcoin.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) stood at 0.358 as of July 18, 2026, with price near $64,791, a reading that sits at the low end of the metric's historical range rather than a typical mid-cycle level. This places current profitability closer to prior bear-market floors than to the elevated readings seen when price trades within range of its highs.
Across Bitcoin's history, NUP has spiked above 0.8-0.9 near major cycle tops in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2021, then compressed toward 0.3 or lower during capitulation phases such as 2015, 2018-2019, and 2022. The current reading sitting near that lower band, despite BTC trading well above previous cycle peaks in nominal terms, marks a clear divergence from past cycle behavior.
This compression points to a rising aggregate cost basis across the holder base. Substantial capital, including ETF inflows and institutional accumulation, has likely entered at elevated prices, thinning the network's overall profit margin even without a proportional decline in spot price. Historically, this kind of low-NUP environment has preceded either capitulation-driven bottoms or prolonged accumulation and consolidation ranges, rather than resolving in a single direction.
The honest risk here is that a compressed profit cushion leaves less room for absorption. If price weakens further from current levels, unrealized losses could expand quickly given how thin the margin already is, and a repeated retest of this zone without a decisive bounce would read as structural weakness rather than a healthy reset.
Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit sitting near cycle-low territory at an elevated price signals a market where profitability has reset meaningfully, a zone worth watching closely for signs of either capitulation or base formation.
This reflects my own views. Not financial advice.
Written by Rich_dady

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the amount of $BTC flowing into Binance deposit addresses has increased clearly in recent periods, while BTC price is still moving around lower levels.
This suggests that BTC activity moving onto exchanges is becoming stronger, which may reflect trading demand, position restructuring, or liquidity preparation for selling.
The notable point is that inflow is rising while price has not recovered strongly, showing that the market is still under a certain level of psychological pressure. When more BTC is sent to exchanges, short-term supply risk may increase if spot demand is not strong enough to absorb it.
For BTC, the current signal should be viewed with neutral caution: CEX activity is increasing, but it still needs to be monitored whether this BTC flow creates real selling pressure or is only liquidity rotation.
Written by Rei Researcher

Data shows that Long-Term Holders continue to record positive LTH Supply Inflow, currently around 347.7K BTC based on EMA(30).
This suggests that $BTC supply is still gradually moving into the hands of long-term holders, reflecting that distribution pressure from the LTH group has not clearly returned.
However, LTH Supply Inflow is declining compared to the previous period. In other words, accumulation is still present, but its intensity has cooled down.
Long-term holders are still absorbing supply, but to confirm a stronger accumulation phase, inflow needs to stabilize again or increase while price holds its support zone.
Written by Rei Researcher

When looking at the long-term trend, Bitcoin’s upside and downside ranges have been getting smaller with each cycle. The most recent upward cycle ended with an even smaller rise than this shrinking trend.
In other words, there is no "always" in this market.
That’s why, as an investor, you should approach it like this:
Not “Is this the bottom or not?”, but rather:
“Is the current market cheap?”
“When looking beyond the next few months to 2027 and 2028, how big of an opportunity will this period become?”
You need to approach the market from this perspective and view it from the big picture to succeed in investing.
Remember this: World-renowned investors did not succeed with just a few months of day trading or swing trading.
Written by Crypto Dan

The $BTC On-chain Trader Profit/Loss Margin has reached -11%.
It has returned to within the -12% range. Based on this indicator, it shows that $BTC is currently in a neutral state.
The loss ratio of on-chain traders is decreasing. This implies that there was active trading during the downtrend, and their realized price has decreased.
A reduction in traders' loss ratios has a positive effect on investor sentiment. $BTC has shifted back from a bearish state to a neutral state.
The most important thing is for $BTC to surpass the realized price of on-chain traders. From that point on, the rise will begin in earnest.
Written by CW8900

The event is extreme within the old-whale cohort, but the broader capitulation remains dominated by newer and more reactive holders.
On July 14, old Bitcoin whales realized approximately $297.3 million in losses, the second-largest daily negative reading visible in this cohort since September 2025.
The only larger event occurred on January 20, when losses reached $334.3 million with BTC trading near $88,300. That spike preceded one of the sharpest capitulation phases of the current bear market.
The significance of the latest movement is not limited to its size.
Old whales generally represent more established capital with a greater capacity to withstand volatility. When this cohort begins realizing losses at this scale, it suggests that the drawdown is reaching deeper into Bitcoin’s ownership structure and forcing even mature holders to reassess their exposure.
However, the broader cohort view provides an important qualification.
Throughout the downturn, new whales, recently active whales and the 10K-balance cohort have realized losses several times larger, occasionally reaching billions of dollars. Against that backdrop, the old-whale event appears relatively contained. In other words, old whales are now joining the capitulation, but they are not leading it.
The bulk of the pressure continues to come from newer and more reactive capital.
This is evidence of deeper market stress, but it can eventually become constructive if the surrendered supply is absorbed by stronger hands. Still, one extreme print does not confirm a bottom.
Confirmation would require old-whale loss realization to fade, losses across the broader whale complex to contract, and price to absorb the remaining supply without establishing new lows. If these spikes begin to cluster while BTC loses its current range, the signal would point toward another stage of capitulation rather than its conclusion.
Written by MorenoDV_

The Realized Price UTXO Age Bands indicate that the realized prices of the 1-3 month and 3-6 month holder cohorts have converged near the current market structure, both sitting around the low $70K area.
Historically, the convergence of these younger holder cost bases often reflects a period of market transition, as recently accumulated coins begin to change hands at similar prices. At present, both realized price levels remain well above Bitcoin's spot price, implying that these cohorts are still holding unrealized losses.
This reinforces the technical picture. While Bitcoin has recovered from its June lows, it remains below the realized cost basis of recent investors, suggesting that sentiment has not fully shifted back in favor of sustained accumulation. A recovery above these realized price levels would strengthen the case for a broader trend reversal, whereas continued rejection below them would support the view that the current advance is still a relief rally within the broader bearish structure.
Written by ShayanMarkets

This week, the crypto market shifted from fear-driven trading toward cautious optimism. Bitcoin climbed from around $63,000–64,000 to briefly test the $65,000–66,000 range before easing on profit-taking. More important than the price move was the gradual transition from a short-covering rally to one increasingly supported by spot demand.
Spot buying improved across major exchanges, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded renewed inflows, and long-term holders continued accumulating coins sold by short-term traders. This suggests that stronger hands are absorbing supply, although U.S. spot demand has not yet fully recovered and part of the rally still reflects derivatives activity and short liquidations.
From a behavioral finance perspective, many investors who experienced June’s sharp decline remain influenced by loss aversion. As prices recover, they are more likely to sell near their entry levels. The market’s ability to absorb this selling pressure without significant weakness is an encouraging sign of improving market structure.
Investor sentiment has clearly improved, supported by softer U.S. inflation data, easing rate expectations, stronger equity markets, and growing optimism around crypto regulation in both the United States and Japan. Progress on market structure legislation, stablecoin regulation, and financial reforms is reinforcing the long-term investment case for digital assets.
However, optimism should remain measured. Higher leverage without sustained spot demand could increase volatility. Next week, investors should watch three key factors: whether ETF inflows continue, whether spot demand strengthens further, and whether Bitcoin can maintain support around $64,000–66,000 despite profit-taking.
The market has improved significantly, but confirmation of a durable bull trend will depend on consistent capital inflows rather than expectations alone.
Written by XWIN Japan

This week, the crypto market shifted from fear-driven trading toward cautious optimism. Bitcoin climbed from around $63,000–64,000 to briefly test the $65,000–66,000 range before easing on profit-taking. More important than the price move was the gradual transition from a short-covering rally to one increasingly supported by spot demand.
Spot buying improved across major exchanges, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded renewed inflows, and long-term holders continued accumulating coins sold by short-term traders. This suggests that stronger hands are absorbing supply, although U.S. spot demand has not yet fully recovered and part of the rally still reflects derivatives activity and short liquidations.
From a behavioral finance perspective, many investors who experienced June’s sharp decline remain influenced by loss aversion. As prices recover, they are more likely to sell near their entry levels. The market’s ability to absorb this selling pressure without significant weakness is an encouraging sign of improving market structure.
Investor sentiment has clearly improved, supported by softer U.S. inflation data, easing rate expectations, stronger equity markets, and growing optimism around crypto regulation in both the United States and Japan. Progress on market structure legislation, stablecoin regulation, and financial reforms is reinforcing the long-term investment case for digital assets.
However, optimism should remain measured. Higher leverage without sustained spot demand could increase volatility. Next week, investors should watch three key factors: whether ETF inflows continue, whether spot demand strengthens further, and whether Bitcoin can maintain support around $64,000–66,000 despite profit-taking.
The market has improved significantly, but confirmation of a durable bull trend will depend on consistent capital inflows rather than expectations alone.
Written by XWIN Japan

Today’s on-chain data points to a neutral to slightly bullish setup, as leverage pressure has eased while short-term sell pressure remains limited.
Exchange netflow was -204 BTC, marking a second consecutive day of outflows. However, the two-day total was only about 225 BTC, so the move is constructive but still too small to confirm strong accumulation.
Seven-day netflow showed roughly 2,196 BTC of inflows, while the 14-day figure remained around 8,197 BTC in net outflows. The mixed flow suggests a volatile liquidity adjustment phase rather than a clear trend.
Funding fell to 0.00225, down 52.8% from the previous day and well below the seven-day average of 0.00520. Long positioning still has a slight edge, but crowded leverage and excessive optimism have eased.
Open interest stood near $21.3 billion, up 0.24% on the day but lower than both seven and 14 days ago. This suggests limited re-entry rather than aggressive new leverage.
The evidence supports roughly a 55% probability of a neutral to slightly bullish scenario. This view would weaken if exchange inflows expand or if funding and open interest rise sharply together.
Overall, exchange outflows remain modest, funding has cooled, and open interest is below recent highs. Tomorrow, the focus should be on whether larger outflows continue and whether open interest rises gradually without renewed funding pressure.
Written by CoinNiel

The end of the bear market is approaching.
The bear market has now been in full swing for nine months, taking a toll on both STH and LTH alike.
As a reminder, STH refers to BTC holders <6 months, while LTH refers to holders >6 months.
In this chart, supply held for more than 7 years has been excluded from the LTH cost basis in order to better reflect the portion of supply that is economically active and held by LTH.
The end-of-bear-market signal has just flashed. This signal is defined by the downward crossover of the STH/LTH cost basis (with a 3-day confirmation window to validate the signal).
This doesn't mean the bear market ends the moment the signal fires or the bottom is in, but it indicates we are entering its final phase, a period during which establishing a DCA makes sense.
When the upward crossover of the STH/LTH cost basis occurs, it then confirms the start of a bull market phase. This signal can notably serve as an end point for DCA.
Beyond being a simple signal, it reflects Bitcoin's cyclicality, which plays out through the behaviors and choices of investors acting the same way across cycles.
The arrival of institutional players doesn't seem to have changed the Bitcoiner population much, which hasn't brought about major changes to these behaviors.
This cycle is, for now, following the same pattern as previous ones, with STH buying the dip and gradually lowering their cost basis to the point of falling below that of "active" LTH cost basis.
The STH cost basis has thus dropped from $112,500 to $69,000.
Written by Darkfost

Observation
Recent on-chain data highlights a profound structural shift originating from the network’s foundational layers. Over the past week, metrics tracking miner shutdowns surged by an extraordinary 2,150% compared to the 90-day baseline. This operational stress is directly translating into supply pressure, as miner-to-Binance flows increased by over 470%. Simultaneously, we are observing a significant awakening of ancient supply; the movement of coins aged 7 to 10 years spiked by 374%, accompanied by a sharp rise in Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).
Context
This combination of metrics suggests that the market is undergoing a classic post-halving supply-side restructuring. As block rewards decrease and mining economics tighten, less efficient miners are forced to shut down operations and liquidate treasury reserves (evidenced by negative daily miner netflows) to cover operational costs. Concurrently, the movement of 7-to-10-year-old coins indicates that veteran market participants from previous cycles are choosing this choppy
62k–64k range to distribute portions of their holdings, securing liquidity during periods of macro uncertainty.
Comparison
Unlike speculative sell-offs driven by leveraged retail traders or short-term panic, the current environment is defined by fundamental, organic distribution. What is particularly noteworthy is the market’s absorption capacity; despite extreme miner offloading and the awakening of ancient coins—forces that traditionally exert severe downward pressure—Bitcoin’s price has maintained a relatively stable range, suggesting that underlying passive demand is quietly absorbing this foundational supply.
Potential Outcome
A market environment where extreme miner capitulation overlaps with long-term holder distribution creates conditions that historically preceded the final phases of post-halving consolidations. If the broader market can continue to absorb this structural supply without breaking critical macro supports, it may he
Written by CryptoOnchain

• Jun 4, 2026. BTC: $63K. On the 1M BTC Renko brick-value chart, Supply in Loss closed at 10M BTC.
• This level of on-chain pain is rarely observed and suggests oversold conditions.
• Data source: CryptoQuant.
Written by Facundo Fama

Although Ethereum whales remain in profit, their profitability is gradually declining. As long as the Whale NUPL stays above zero, it indicates that a significant portion of large investors still holds unrealized gains. However, NUPL has not reached the extreme levels seen during previous market peaks, suggesting that whales are not yet in an overheated profit zone. This implies that they have not reached the psychological threshold that typically triggers aggressive profit taking.
Meanwhile, the amount of ETH being transferred to Binance remains elevated. Since late 2024, deposits have increased significantly and continue to stay at high levels, indicating that a large volume of ETH has been moved into the Binance ecosystem. While this does not automatically signal selling, it does increase the amount of liquid ETH readily available for trading, keeping potential selling pressure elevated.
At the same time, stablecoin whales have accumulated substantial capital over the past two years. This suggests that major investors maintain significant purchasing power, holding not only large ETH positions but also considerable cash reserves in USDT and USDC.
The Realized Price continues to trend higher, indicating that the network's average cost basis is rising. This reflects stronger long term capital inflows compared with previous market cycles.
Taken together, these metrics suggest that Ethereum whales maintain high levels of liquidity and have the flexibility to shift market direction when necessary. The key factor for price will be the flow of capital between their large ETH holdings and their substantial stablecoin reserves. As things stand, the risk of selling pressure remains present.
Written by PelinayPA