CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bitcoin price is currently trading around ~$87K, which coincides almost perfectly with the realized price of Bitcoin ETF holders ($86,600). In simple terms, this is the average price at which ETF investors entered the market.

With price sitting on the ETF realized price, the marginal ETF holder is no longer a seller locking in gains, but an investor deciding whether to tolerate drawdowns or exit at breakeven. Historically, this zone acts as a psychological pivot: holding above realized price reinforces conviction and stabilizes flows, while sustained trading below it tends to accelerate redemptions as investors lose their profit buffer.

Since peaking at $72.6B in cumulative flows on October 10th, 2025, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a dramatic reversal, with approximately $6.1B in net outflows bleeding from these products. Current holdings stand at $66.5B, marking a drawdown of roughly 8.4% from the all-time high. This represents the first significant stress test for this relatively nascent investment cohort since ETF approval.

What stands out is that despite a $6B drawdown in cumulative flows (from ~$72.6B to ~$66.5B), realized price has remained relatively stable and continues to trend higher. In other words, ETF investors have already absorbed significant pressure

(The sustained outflow pressure suggests distribution from less committed capital, likely late-cycle entrants or traders seeking to lock in remaining profits before deeper losses materialize)

This level is not about trend confirmation or reversal. It is about behavioral stress. If price holds above ETF realized price, it gives this cohort a reason to stay invested. If it fails, ETF flows risk shifting from passive consolidation into active distribution.

Right now, Bitcoin is trading at the line where ETF conviction is tested.

Written by MorenoDV_

What is Binance Reserve Realized Price?

This metric shows the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin reserves on Binance exchange and has historically functioned as a critical support level separating bear and bull markets. When Bitcoin price stays above this level, the bull trend continues; when it drops below, bear season used to begin.

Paradigm Shift After Bitcoin Spot ETF

With the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in January 2024 (pink band on the chart), market dynamics changed. Before this date, Binance Reserve RP was around 42K, but after ETF approval, this level rose to 62K.

The most critical point: Bitcoin has never tested this level since Spot ETF approval! Throughout the bull run, Bitcoin price traded well above this level, and now we're approaching 62K for the first time.

Where Are We Now ?

Bitcoin is technically in a bear cycle. However, with changing paradigms - institutional investors, ETFs, increased adoption - the bottom of this bear season might be different from past cycles.

Conclusion

Binance Reserve RP (62K) will be the first major support test of the post-ETF era. Historically, this level provided significant bottoms during bear seasons. Pre-2024 it was at 42K and was tested. Now it's at 62K and the paradigm has shifted, market structure has changed - perhaps bottom levels have changed too.

We'll soon see if 62K holds.

Written by burakkesmeci

The total supply of ERC20 stablecoins represents the amount of capital currently waiting inside the crypto market. When this supply is expanding, it usually reflects fresh capital inflows or a rising willingness to take risk, creating favorable conditions for price recovery. Conversely, a declining supply suggests that stablecoins are being redeemed or converted back into fiat, reducing overall market liquidity. Because this metric often moves ahead of price, it is useful as a leading indicator for medium-term trend shifts.

ERC20 stablecoin exchange balances, on the other hand, measure immediately deployable liquidity. An increase in exchange balances indicates that capital is being positioned to buy risk assets, strengthening short-term rebound potential. A decline implies that funds are being withdrawn from exchanges or already consumed, which tends to weaken short-term buying pressure. When exchange balances fall alongside total supply, the signal leans toward capital exiting the market rather than rotating internally.

Taken together, these indicators help distinguish between “waiting capital” and “leaving capital.” In the current environment, monitoring whether total supply stabilizes and whether exchange balances begin to recover is critical. Sustainable market rebounds tend to emerge only after stablecoin liquidity stops contracting and starts to return to the trading venues.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

New data about the Nexo Collateral Numbers came out. In Q1 2026, 56.18% of all Nexo collateral is backed by Bitcoin. This is the highest level since Q2 2025, when BTC peaked at 59.73%.

Breakdown this quarter:

- Bitcoin: 56.18%

- Ethereum: 12.40%

- Altcoins: 28.05%

- Stablecoins: 3.37%

Borrowers are leaning back into BTC as their preferred form of collateral, potentially signaling a shift toward lower-risk strategies or expectations of Bitcoin-led market strength.

Written by maartunn

Ethereum’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance remains at a record high, with the 7-day SMA at 0.632, signaling heavy concentration of leveraged positions. At the same time, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio shows extreme volatility, reinforcing the fragile market structure.

On January 25, the ratio dropped to 0.86, its lowest level since September, indicating dominant taker sell pressure. This was followed by a sharp rebound to 1.16, marking the highest daily reading since February 2021 and reflecting aggressive market buy activity.

This abrupt shift in taker behavior is occurring while ETH price, after failing to break above the $4,800 all-time high, is consolidating near the $2,800 support zone. The combination of elevated leverage and rapid order-flow reversals significantly increases the probability of sharp and unstable price movements.

Under these conditions, the market appears highly dependent on a clear catalyst, and until directional conviction emerges, the risk of heightened volatility and liquidation cascades remains elevated.

Written by CryptoOnchain

• Long-Term Holders’ behavior during the current cycle: distribution (red area) and accumulation (green area).

• Over the past few months, they shifted from -674K BTC (6) to +191K BTC (7).

• Indicator: LTH Supply Change 30d sum (by Darkfost, Verified Author at CQ).

Written by _OnChain

Large Bitcoin holders intensified exchange deposits during the latest price upward leg. The average BTC deposit rose from 0.7 to 1.2 BTC while price climbed from $80K to $98K from November 21, 2024 to January 14, 2025, with Binance standing out at an average 25 BTC per deposit (up from ~10 BTC a week earlier), far above Bitfinex and Bitstamp at ~8 and 5 BTC respectively– highlighting Binance’s role as the infrastructure capturing a significant share of user activity amid market spikes.

Altcoin deposit activity surged to multi-month highs, with daily deposits peaking at 65K on January 7, led by Binance (19.6K) and Coinbase (7.1K), and remaining elevated with ~40K+ deposits per day across major venues. Overall, this robust activity suggests that despite inconsistent price action in early 2026, with prices whipsawing and down as of publication, underlying network and exchange participation remains strong.

The number of altcoin depositors rose sharply, reaching 37K active addresses on January 5, the highest since October 2025, with Binance (8K) and Coinbase (4K) leading inflows—signaling broad participation in potential profit-taking. Deposit activity remained elevated across venues, for days after hitting that peak, with daily depositors of 7K on Binance, and 15K on other exchanges as of today.

Written by CQ Research

On-chain demand continues to deteriorate and retail participation is still falling, indicating a dominant risk-averse stance.

As I mentioned on my Twitter, this risk-off sentiment is also being fueled by fears of another shutdown in the US. If the government shuts down at the end of this week, we could have another period of restricted liquidity.

This, combined with dismantling in carry trade, reduces the flow of liquidity out of Japan, resulting in a period of very restricted liquidity.

A solid recovery will require a renewal in market sentiment and greater retail participation in on-chain volume.

Written by caueconomy

[A Billion Dollar Market Cap]

Reaching a market capitalization of $1 billion in January, NEXO is the native ERC-20 utility token of the Nexo platform, offering instant crypto-backed loans, trading, and a crypto card.

[NEXO Whale Activity Increasing in January]

According to CryptoQuant’s on-chain data, whales have been actively trading the NEXO token in January: As NEXO’s spot price declined beneath $1, whales have started an accumulation pattern, expecting a good entry point.

NEXO traded between $0.90 and $1.00 in mid-January, with an uptrend structure intact, accompanied by short-term pullbacks (below EMA20). This whale-driven volume supports resilience.

[Collateral Accumulation]

Broader platform metrics show rising collateral accumulation, with collateral accumulation index at $1.52 million in mid-January, as pointed out by the CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain.

The index suggests that whales and institutions are depositing or using assets as collateral for loans rather than selling outright. This reduces spot selling pressure and signals confidence in the long-term outlook of NEXO.

[About NEXO token]

The NEXO token is the native cryptocurrency of Nexo, a leading digital assets platform for earning interest, borrowing against crypto, and trading.

NEXO’s token supply is at 1 billion units, with no additional minting possible. This creates a capped and deflationary structure, supported by periodic buyback programs that reduce available supply over time. The reduced supply of NEXO represents digital scarcity, essential for future spot price appreciation.

Written by oinonen_t

Current flow and on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin is losing momentum, as new capital inflows slow rather than capital exiting the market.

Realized Cap shows that capital remains within the system. However, both the rate of change and Z-Trend are in negative territory, reflecting a loss of acceleration in new capital inflows. This setup is typical of consolidation or late-cycle conditions, not the early stages of a fresh bull move.

At the same time, Bitcoin spot reserves on exchanges have been rising since Jun 2025, increasing available on-exchange supply. Historically, this behavior aligns with either gradual distribution or capital positioning ahead of higher volatility - but not with aggressive accumulation.

Spot demand remains weak. A persistently negative Coinbase Premium suggests that U.S.-based spot buyers, institutions included, are largely absent. As a result, recent upside attempts appear increasingly derivatives-driven, making price moves more fragile and less durable.

Taken together, these signals point to a clear conclusion:

Bitcoin is not attracting strong spot demand. The market is in a phase of redistribution and waiting.

A constructive shift would require:

• stabilization and recovery in Coinbase Premium,

• a turn in Realized Cap momentum,

• clear evidence of spot-led absorption.

Until then, upside remains vulnerable, with the risk skewed toward continued range trading or a deeper corrective move 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

Data from Binance shows that daily price momentum is positive at approximately $1,676, with a momentum of 1.93%, indicating a moderately higher closing price compared to the opening price. This reading reflects a clear attempt by the market to regain balance after a previous wave of selling pressure; however, it does not yet constitute strong bullish momentum. Instead, it suggests a quiet corrective move.

Meanwhile, the daily volatility measure stands at around $2,350, with volatility estimated at approximately 2.7%. This level of volatility is moderate relative to previous periods and indicates that the market is not experiencing sharp fluctuations or panic-driven behavior, but is instead moving within a relatively well-defined price range. A decline in volatility typically signals a reduced intensity in the struggle between buyers and sellers, which is common during phases of price base formation.

In terms of volume, current data shows daily trading activity of approximately 17,800 BTC, which is lower than the volume peaks observed during prior downtrends. A decline in volume alongside moderately positive momentum is often interpreted as a reduction in selling pressure rather than evidence of aggressive buying. In other words, prices are rising more due to the absence of sellers than from a significant influx of new liquidity.

the current readings reflect a relatively calm market environment, characterized by limited positive momentum and controlled volatility, pointing to a period of anticipation rather than an immediate breakout or distribution phase.

Written by Arab Chain

Exchange Supply Share (ESS) shows how much of XRP is held on exchanges. When ESS rises, it indicates XRP inflows to exchanges; when ESS declines, it means XRP is moving off exchanges. Historically, ESS and price have shown an inverse correlation most of the time.

February-April 2025 During this period, ESS declined steadily. The price first moved sideways and then broke out sharply to the upside. The reduction of supply on exchanges led to a delayed positive price reaction.

July-September 2025 In contrast, ESS started to rise in this period. While the price experienced high volatility, a market top formed and was followed by a downward move. This phase reflects distribution as exchange balances increased.

October 2025-A Critical Phase is particularly important. A sharp drop in ESS was followed by a strong price dump. The key point here is that the decline in ESS should not be interpreted as panic selling, but rather as a liquidity drain occurring simultaneously with the price decline.

Between November and December 2025, the lack of market volume also affected XRP. ESS remained flat at very low levels, while the price drifted downward gradually.

Current Situation at present, ESS is at the bottom zone, and the SMA(30), SMA(50), and SMA(100) are positioned above the price, indicating that the supply side has stabilized. The price is around the $1.9 level and is still responding weakly relative to ESS. Historically, this setup has tended to push prices higher with a delay.

When ESS stays at bottom levels for 2–4 weeks, price has typically shown an initial relief bounce followed by the beginning of a trend. We appear to be at the early stage of this phase; however, unlike previous instances, there is no volume confirmation. Therefore, any upside move may remain a short term reaction rather than a sustained trend.

Written by PelinayPA

On-chain data tracking large holders (1K–10K BTC, excluding exchanges and mining pools) suggests a notable shift in whale behavior following a prolonged distribution phase in late 2025. After reaching a local peak around mid-2025, total whale balances declined steadily as Bitcoin price remained elevated, indicating classic distribution into strength rather than forced selling.

The 30-day balance change metric confirms this dynamic. Throughout Q3 and early Q4, whale balances consistently posted negative monthly changes, coinciding with increased price volatility and weakening momentum. This divergence highlighted that upside price moves were increasingly driven by marginal buyers rather than sustained accumulation from large holders.

However, recent data shows a clear inflection. Both short-term (7-day) and medium-term (30-day) balance changes have turned positive, while total whale holdings have begun to stabilize and recover from their local lows. Historically, such transitions from net distribution to accumulation tend to occur during periods of price compression or post-correction phases, rather than at market tops.

From a macro on-chain perspective, the 1-year change in whale holdings remains relatively flat, suggesting that the broader cycle has not entered an aggressive accumulation regime yet. This implies the current behavior is more consistent with tactical re-positioning than long-term conviction buying.

In summary, whale activity is no longer exerting sustained sell pressure on Bitcoin supply. While this does not guarantee an immediate bullish continuation, it reduces downside risk and supports the view that the market is transitioning into a stabilization phase, where future price direction will depend on whether accumulation accelerates or stalls at current levels.

Written by CryptoZeno

Over the past 7 days, Binance has experienced a significant and broad-based capital outflow, reflected across both stablecoins and major crypto assets.

On the stablecoin side, USDT (ERC20) recorded a net outflow of approximately $2.26B, while USDC saw an additional $1.24B in net withdrawals. This represents a substantial reduction in on-exchange purchasing power, signaling that capital is being actively removed rather than waiting on the sidelines.

Simultaneously, risk assets also exited the exchange at scale. Bitcoin recorded a net outflow of around $2.14B, and Ethereum saw roughly $1.35B in net withdrawals over the same period. These figures indicate that large holders are moving core assets off Binance, most likely into self-custody or alternative platforms.

The combined effect is clear: Binance has witnessed a heavy net outflow across both “cash” (stablecoins) and “assets” (BTC & ETH) within a single week. This balance is important. While BTC and ETH outflows may reduce immediate sell pressure—often interpreted as mildly bullish—the concurrent stablecoin outflows suggest declining internal liquidity and weaker short-term buying capacity on the exchange.

From a market-structure perspective, this pattern points toward capital reallocation and platform risk management, rather than aggressive positioning for immediate upside. With fewer stablecoins available on Binance, downside moves may face thinner spot bid support, increasing sensitivity to external flows.

Overall, the data reflects a clear liquidity contraction event on Binance over the last 7 days, a condition that typically precedes increased volatility and shifts price discovery toward external demand rather than internal exchange dynamics.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin spot reserves on major exchanges have been rising since June 2025 - consistent with either ongoing distribution or capital positioning ahead of a broader market move 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

On January 23, the Bitcoin: Exchange Stablecoins Ratio on Binance recorded a sharp spike—an event that initially resembles a classic bullish signal. This ratio compares Bitcoin balances on the exchange to stablecoin reserves, which represent available buying power. Under normal conditions, a rising ratio suggests increasing risk appetite and potential upward price pressure.

However, a closer look at the underlying mechanics tells a different story.

The key driver of this move lies in the denominator of the ratio: stablecoin reserves. During this period, Binance experienced a large-scale capital outflow amounting to several billion dollars, impacting both crypto assets and stablecoins. Crucially, the contraction in stablecoin balances was large enough to significantly reduce the denominator. As a result, the ratio surged due to mathematical compression, not because of new Bitcoin inflows or increased spot demand.

In practical terms, this means the ratio rose because purchasing power was removed, not because demand expanded. This creates a structural false positive—a signal that appears bullish on charts but does not reflect healthier liquidity conditions or stronger internal demand.

From a market-structure perspective, this is an important distinction. While Bitcoin outflows can imply lower immediate sell pressure, the simultaneous depletion of stablecoin liquidity weakens Binance’s ability to absorb downside volatility. With fewer stablecoins waiting on the sidelines, potential buy-the-dip support becomes structurally thinner.

In conclusion, the recent surge in the Bitcoin: Exchange Stablecoins Ratio on Binance should be interpreted cautiously. Rather than signaling renewed accumulation, it primarily reflects liquidity drainage and balance-sheet restructuring. Without confirming stablecoin inflows or external demand, this ratio alone is not a reliable bullish indicator.

Written by CryptoOnchain

• This is the first drop of the cycle where realized losses outweigh realized gains.

• Indicator: Net Realized Profit/Loss (by Julio Moreno).

Written by _OnChain

• Only 3 times in the past three years has realized loss exceeded USD 4.5B. Some Bitcoiners are suffering.

• Indicator: Realized Profit and Loss (by Julio Moreno).

Written by _OnChain

The claim that stablecoins have nothing to do with the Bitcoin bull market is completely baseless.

The first chart shows the Exchange Stablecoins Ratio (USD).

Bitcoin: Exchange StableCoins Ratio USD

All cryptocurrencies are in the numerator, and stablecoins are in the denominator.

So when crypto prices fall and stablecoins remain on exchanges, the blue line goes down.

Right now, this indicator is at the lowest level of the current 4th halving cycle.

Throughout this cycle, there were repeated claims that the bull season had ended early—but those claims were always wrong, and the market kept going.

This time, Bitcoin has been heavily suppressed in price, which pushed the ratio to cycle lows.

That means Bitcoin is deeply undervalued and a large amount of dollar liquidity is waiting on the sidelines.

The second chart shows the ratio by token count, not price.

Bitcoin Exchange Stablecoins Ratio

In terms of token count, the ratio is even more extreme and stuck at historic lows.

Again, all cryptocurrencies are in the numerator and stablecoins in the denominator.

This means there is a massive amount of stablecoin liquidity waiting to buy.

These on-chain indicators clearly suggest that this is not the end of the cycle,

but rather a bull market structure with significant upside liquidity waiting to enter.

Written by CoinNiel

The so-called “super Wednesday” of January 28, 2026 promises to shake global markets. On one side, the crude oil inventories report in the U.S., a direct reference for WTI (CL=F), and indirectly for Brent (BZ=F). On the other, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Both events have the potential to alter expectations of inflation, liquidity, and risk. In this scenario, Bitcoin emerges as an asset sensitive to the same variables, reacting both to energy shocks and to changes in monetary policy. The correlation between oil and BTC gains relevance as a thermometer of investor confidence.

CRUDE OIL FUTURES (WTI – CL=F, MAR/26)

◾ Last price → US$ 60.73/bbl

◾ Daily variation → -0.34 (-0.72%)

◾ Today’s volume → 136,057

◾ Friday’s volume → 260,445

◾ Open Interest → 2,016,566

◾ OI variation → -21,771 contracts

BTC VS. CRUDE OIL – PERCENTUAL PERFORMANCE CORRELATION

◾ BTC Performance % → +5.08%

◾ Crude Oil Performance % → +0.01%

◾ Interpretation: moderate negative correlation in the week, reinforced by the simultaneous drop in OI in oil and BTC → signal of risk reduction before super Wednesday.

CONCLUSION

The numbers reveal a market in a waiting mode. The reduction of positions in both oil and Bitcoin suggests that investors are awaiting crucial definitions. Super Wednesday will be decisive to calibrate expectations and may redefine the correlation between energy and crypto.

Written by GugaOnChain