CryptoQuant Quicktake

Observation
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s price has recovered from approximately $58.5k to over $63.5k. However, beneath this price action lies a distinct divergence in market participation. Binance funding rates have spiked significantly (+860% compared to the 90-day baseline), indicating aggressive long positioning in derivatives markets. Conversely, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained persistently negative throughout this entire 14-day window, fluctuating between -0.09 and -0.17.
Context
The Coinbase Premium is traditionally viewed as a proxy for US-based institutional and high-net-worth spot demand, whereas Binance funding rates often reflect global, offshore, and retail derivatives sentiment. When offshore funding rates surge alongside a deeply negative Coinbase Premium, it suggests that the current price momentum is being driven primarily by speculative leverage rather than organic spot accumulation in the US.
Comparison
This derivative-heavy structure is further contextualized by the NVT Golden Cross, which experienced a sharp 579% decline relative to its 90-day baseline. A falling NVT ratio alongside rising prices implies that actual on-chain transaction value (network utility) is lagging behind market capitalization growth. In other words, the underlying network remains relatively quiet while derivatives activity is accelerating.
Potential Outcome
A market environment where price appreciation relies heavily on offshore leverage, without the foundational support of US spot demand, creates conditions that have historically preceded localized corrections. Until the Coinbase Premium neutralizes or turns positive—confirming renewed spot demand—the current market structure may leave over-leveraged long positions vulnerable to sudden deleveraging events.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin's NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, the share of network market cap sitting in unrealized profit) reads 0.158 today. Smoothed into its 30 and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), it becomes one of the cleanest cycle clocks on-chain. The 100-day EMA sits at 0.215, the 30-day at 0.155. On June 2 the 30-day crossed below the 100-day, and both are now sliding toward zero. Neither has crossed it.
Every time the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero, Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom: late 2011 (low near $2), January 2015 ($182), the 2018 bear ($3,206 in December 2018), and the 2022 FTX bottom ($15,792 in November 2022). Each dip has been shallower than the one before: -0.58 in 2011, -0.22 in 2015, and about -0.15 in both 2019 and 2022, consistent with a maturing asset. (This four-cycle count uses the 100-day EMA; a simple moving average adds one brief, negligible 2012 dip.) Four cycles is a pattern, not a law.
The current cycle has not printed a negative reading; its low so far is positive. That leaves two paths. Either the 100-day EMA crosses zero as it did at every prior bottom, or this becomes the first cycle to bottom without it, which would fit the shallower-each-time trend. The recent 30-below-100 cross signals fading momentum, not a destination. This is a read on cycle position, not a price target.
The zero line on the 100-day EMA is the level to watch in the coming weeks.
Written by thechessONCHAIN

In Part 1, we examined the rise of TradFi Equity Perpetuals. In Part 2, we explored why SpaceX became the flagship product of this emerging market. The final question is: where does this trend lead?
As the chart illustrates, Binance's TradFi Equity Perpetual trading volume surged sharply in June 2026, led primarily by SpaceX (SPCX), alongside growing activity in MicroStrategy (MSTR), Circle (CRCL), and Intel (INTC). This is more than a temporary spike—it signals growing demand for accessing traditional assets through crypto-native infrastructure.
At the same time, the financial industry is embracing tokenization. Major institutions such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are already developing blockchain-based investment products, viewing digital assets as the foundation of future financial markets rather than a niche innovation.
The next evolution extends beyond equities. ETFs, government bonds, commodities, real estate, and other real-world assets are increasingly expected to become tokenized and traded continuously on blockchain networks.
At XWIN, we believe the future is not about crypto replacing traditional finance, but about traditional finance adopting blockchain infrastructure. By 2030, investors may no longer distinguish between cryptocurrencies, stocks, or bonds—they will simply access global assets through a unified, always-on financial marketplace.
TradFi Equity Perpetuals are not the destination. They are the first visible step toward the next generation of global finance.
Written by XWIN Japan

1) Jun 30, 2026. BTC: $58K. On the monthly timeframe, while Supply in Loss exceeded 10M BTC, BTC’s price closed below the SMA50 for the first time since its last ATH.
2) Both signals reflect structural pain and suggest that Bitcoin is oversold.
Written by Facundo Fama

According to CryptoQuant data, the Fund Flow Ratio EMA(30) across all exchanges has started to rebound slightly after falling to its lowest level in recent months.
This suggests that the share of $BTC being transferred through exchanges is beginning to improve, reflecting a gradual increase in investor activity on exchanges after a relatively quiet period.
Fund flow activity is showing early signs of recovery, but to confirm that real demand is returning, the Fund Flow Ratio needs to continue rising alongside price and improving spot volume.
Written by Rei Researcher

While everyone debates funding rates and open interest, I'm watching something else. ADX crossovers.
Every major trend this cycle started the same way. ADX and Signal Line compress toward the 20-25% zone, cross, and then one of them rips higher. That's the ignition.
Same setup every time. Both lines compress low. Cross. New trend fires.
Right now? ADX came off a big spike and is falling. But the Signal Line hasn't caught up yet. They haven't converged.
Could we see a full-strength trend soon? Maybe. But I'm expecting consolidation until the Signal Line drops to meet ADX at lower levels first. Maybe a week, maybe more.
And I'm saying that not as a signal but as a context. Spikes can still happen anytime, but for a sustainable one this metrics tend to converge before it happens.
The cross is the trigger. We're not there yet 🔥
Written by RugaResearch

When evaluating the chart's Exchange Netflow (+623 BTC), Puell Multiple (0.62), and NUPL (0.16) together, it appears that investors are positioned for potential selling.
The positive Binance Exchange Netflow indicates that more BTC is flowing into Binance than leaving it. This means investors are increasing their Bitcoin balances on the exchange. Considering that Binance is the world's largest liquidity hub, this suggests that the market is currently operating under increased selling pressure.
Meanwhile, miners are not contributing to that pressure. A Puell Multiple of 0.62 indicates that miners' revenues remain below their historical average. Despite lower profitability, miners appear to be holding their coins rather than selling at a loss. This suggests that the primary source of supply entering the market is coming from other investor groups rather than miners.
The NUPL value of 0.16 shows that investors' unrealized profits remain relatively low. This indicates that many market participants are either selling at a loss or with only minimal gains. It also reflects that overall market sentiment is far from euphoric.
Taken together, the data suggests that the most influential factor on price is the increase in BTC being transferred to Binance. At the same time, neither miners nor long-term holders are displaying a level of selling activity strong enough to reinforce that pressure. Overall, investor behavior indicates that sell side liquidity is increasing, but this is not being driven by broad profit taking or heavy miner selling.
Written by PelinayPA

$BTC Funding Rate on Binance has clearly returned to positive territory, currently around 0.0076, while price is still trading at relatively low levels around 62K–63K.
This shows that sentiment in the derivatives market is improving, with traders starting to lean more toward Long positions after an extended period of negative funding.
The reason is that rising positive funding while price has not recovered accordingly may suggest that Long positions are building faster than actual spot buying pressure. If price continues to weaken, these positions could become a source of risk for a long squeeze.
According to CryptoQuant data, sentiment on Binance is becoming less negative, but it is still not enough to confirm a new uptrend.
For $BTC, the next thing to watch is wh
Written by Rei Researcher

ERC-20 stablecoin activity across addresses associated with Nexo’s platform has reached new relative highs as of late June 2026, reflecting a sustained expansion in on-chain capital allocation toward the platform. Across 2,383 daily observations spanning late 2019 through June 22, 2026, all figures are presented on a share-of-composition and growth-momentum basis to focus on structural trends rather than absolute balances.
USDC dominates the stablecoin composition at ~60.7% of total balances, followed by USDT at ~33% — together accounting for roughly 94% of all stablecoin engagement. The two assets exhibit a strong correlation of 0.87, confirming that capital movements into Nexo are broad-based rather than driven by a single-token preference.
A particularly notable signal is the acceleration that began in Q4 2025: USDC’s relative balance index roughly doubled between September 2025 and January 2026, marking the steepest sustained inflow phase in the dataset’s history. Momentum readings remained strongly positive through this period before a modest, healthy consolidation in mid-2026.
Beyond the two leaders, DAI maintains a steady ~4.8% share, reflecting consistent engagement from users who favor decentralized, collateral-backed assets. Most striking is the emergence of EURC: effectively absent before October 2025, the euro-denominated stablecoin has rapidly grown to ~1.15% of composition. Notably, EURC correlates strongly with both USDT (0.71) and USDC (0.66), suggesting European user onboarding is moving in lockstep with the platform’s broader growth — a clear sign of geographic diversification.
Taken together, the data depicts an expanding and increasingly diverse user base spanning stablecoin preferences, risk profiles, and currency zones. For a CeFi platform, this depth and breadth of stablecoin engagement is a reliable proxy for platform trust — and Nexo’s current trajectory reflects both.
Written by CryptoOnchain

ETH has seen a significant decline in Open Interest since the October 2025 highs. It dropped from a record $33.9B to $11.2B, showing just how hard this correction hit traders who keep taking on excessive risk.
Falling from ~$3,200 to ~$1,500 over the period, this ETH price decline triggered a notable volume of liquidations on Binance, and continues to do so.
This chart illustrates these liquidations as bubbles, making it easy to see whether long or short liquidations dominated and the size of the volumes involved.
This allows for an at a glance comparison.
We can observe that at the end of June, the size of long liquidation volumes on Binance was comparable to those seen on October 10th.
Now, with this slight rebound in early July, shorts have dominated liquidation volumes on Binance, particularly on July 2nd.
These are the largest short liquidations since 2022.
These dynamics clearly illustrate investor impatience in a market that’s currently moving very little. Some choose to add heavy leverage to their positions to try to profit from low volatility, and often get caught out by this poorly managed risk taking.
Written by Darkfost

Data from the Binance XRP Scarcity Index shows the index rising to approximately 0.77 over the past three days, reaching its highest level since mid-2024, while XRP is trading near $1.10. This increase reflects a significant shift in supply dynamics on the Binance platform, with the coin's availability declining compared to previous periods, pushing the scarcity index to its highest level in over a year.
The data indicates that the index experienced a prolonged period of relative stability before beginning a clear upward trend in recent weeks, while the price of XRP has not increased at the same pace. This suggests that the current change is not solely related to price action but may also stem from a decline in the tradable supply on the platform, whether due to lower deposit activity or increased withdrawals and off-exchange holdings.
A rising scarcity index often indicates reduced potential selling pressure, as the amount of XRP available for sale on the platform becomes smaller than in previous periods. However, this indicator alone does not definitively signal the continuation of an upward trend. The key factor determining whether XRP extends its gains will be the strength of market demand in the coming period. If demand strengthens while supply remains limited, the current scarcity could support further upside.
The Binance XRP Scarcity Index reaching its highest level since mid-2024 reflects a structural shift in the supply balance on Binance, indicating that XRP has become scarcer on the platform than in previous months.
Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin whale activity on Binance has cooled sharply since mid-June, with the rolling 30-day value of whale inflows falling by nearly $2.4 billion.
Binance Whale to Exchange Flow chart shows whale inflows declining from $7.04 billion on June 12 to $4.65 billion on July 6—a $2.39 billion, or roughly 34%, decrease.
Retail inflows also moved lower over the same period, dropping from $10.02 billion to $8.20 billion.
However, the $1.82 billion decline, equal to about 18%, was notably smaller than the pullback seen among larger holders.
The divergence suggests that major BTC holders have reduced their transfers to Binance at a much faster pace than smaller investors. Whale inflows fell at nearly twice the rate of retail inflows, reducing the relative role of large holders in exchange-bound Bitcoin supply.
Meanwhile, the gap between retail and whale inflows widened from about $2.98 billion to $3.55 billion.
Transfers to an exchange do not automatically mean Bitcoin will be sold. Still, lower whale inflows can signal that fewer large holders are moving coins into a venue where they can be traded or liquidated. That may reduce a potential source of exchange-side selling pressure.
The key question now is whether Binance whale inflows stabilize around the current $4.65 billion level or continue moving lower. A further decline would reinforce the view that large Bitcoin holders are becoming less active on the exchange compared with the retail cohort.
Written by Amr Taha

In Part 1, we explored how crypto exchanges are evolving into multi-asset financial platforms. Today, Binance dominates the TradFi Equity Perpetual market with nearly 80% market share, making it the clear leader in this emerging sector.
Among all TradFi equity products, SpaceX (SPCX) has become the most actively traded. According to CryptoQuant, the sharp increase in Binance's trading volume during June 2026 was primarily driven by SpaceX perpetual futures, while products linked to MicroStrategy (MSTR), Circle (CRCL), and Intel (INTC) also gained traction.
Why SpaceX? The answer goes beyond Elon Musk's brand. For years, SpaceX has been one of the world's most sought-after private companies, yet access to its shares has largely been restricted to venture capital firms, institutional investors, and wealthy individuals.
TradFi Equity Perpetuals change that dynamic. Although traders do not own the underlying shares, they can gain price exposure through perpetual derivatives, making participation in high-profile private companies far more accessible.
At XWIN, we believe this reflects a broader transformation in investor behavior. Demand is shifting beyond cryptocurrencies toward high-growth private companies, tokenized assets, and eventually a wider range of real-world assets. SpaceX is more than a popular trading product—it is an early symbol of how blockchain-based markets are democratizing access to global investment opportunities.
Written by XWIN Japan

Observation
Recent on-chain data for XRP reveals a highly localized liquidity event on Binance. On July 2nd, the exchange recorded a massive, symmetrical spike in token velocity, with inflows hitting 7.38M XRP and outflows concurrently reaching 7.27M XRP. During this exact window, Open Interest (OI) began a subtle recovery from a local low of 405M to 419M, accompanying the price uptick toward $1.13.
Context
Symmetrical exchange flows of this magnitude rarely represent organic retail trading. Instead, this behavior suggests institutional-sized OTC settlements, market-maker rebalancing, or internal exchange wallet structuring. The fact that estimated leverage ratios remained conservative (0.158, well below the 6-month mean of 0.168) suggests that this localized exchange activity was driven primarily by spot market participants rather than speculative debt.
Comparison
However, a distinct divergence becomes apparent when comparing this exchange-level churn to the underlying XRP Ledger (XRPL). Despite the heavy volume moving through Binance, broader network utility remains subdued. Total daily transaction counts on the ledger are hovering around 1.3M, which remains approximately 29% below the three-month historical baseline.
Potential Outcome
This structural divergence—heavy, coordinated liquidity routing on a major exchange contrasted with a quiet physical network—creates conditions that historically preceded localized, spot-driven price recoveries. If the underlying network transaction volume begins to expand and validate this exchange-level momentum, it may help the market establish a firmer structural floor in the near term.
Written by CryptoOnchain

The reins of the crypto market have completely shifted to derivatives. Binance Futures volumes are currently pacing significantly higher than spot volumes. This data clearly reveals a highly active and heavily leveraged position density dominating the market.
What does this structure mean for the current price action?
1. Liquidity Pools Awaiting the Hunt
The aggressive dominance of futures volumes over spot markets is creating massive liquidity pools. For market makers and whales, these concentrated liquidity zones act as perfect fuel to drive prices toward high-leverage liquidation clusters.
2. Bitcoin in "Chop City" Around $60,000
Looking at the current metrics, Bitcoin is highly likely to fluctuate around the $60,000 level for a while. These swing-high and swing-low waves are a natural mechanism for the market to build out fresh liquidity pools. Expect a period of range-bound consolidation with sharp, stop-hunting wicks.
3. Quiet Spot, Aggressive Futures
Right now, spot volumes look thin and exhausted. The primary force driving the market is entirely active trading on Binance Futures. With spot buyers sitting on their hands, the tension building in the derivatives market means we are vulnerable to sudden volatility in either direction.
Key Takeaway: Instead of organic spot accumulation, the market is running on synthetic volume driven by leveraged positions. Protecting your stops during this $60,000 accumulation phase is more critical than ever as liquidation hunts intensify.
Written by BorisD

• Same asset, multiple dimensions, different manifestations of the same broader market deterioration: Price, On-Chain Data (Supply, Demand, Holders), and Derivatives (Open Interest).
• All of this suggests that Bitcoin remains in a bearish macro trend.
Written by Facundo Fama

Data from the Miners' Position Index (MPI) indicates that the index has stabilized at around -0.94, while Bitcoin is trading near $63,000. The data suggests that miners' activity, as reflected by the MPI, has remained in negative territory for most of the recent period, with intermittent rallies that quickly faded before the index returned to lower levels. This follows a period of significant volatility in Bitcoin's price, during which the index maintained its overall trend without registering a sustained move into positive territory.
The data also shows that the miners' index has become more stable compared to the sharp fluctuations observed at the beginning of the year, when it recorded elevated readings for brief periods before gradually declining and moving within a less volatile range. Recent values continue to point to a persistent negative trend, with no clear signs of a structural shift in the behavior of miners over the past few weeks.
The MPI remaining below zero for an extended period reflects the continuation of the conditions that have characterized miners' positioning in recent months, with the absence of the exceptional upward spikes seen during previous phases. The current reading of -0.94 also extends the trend that has been in place since the second quarter of the year, as negative readings have occurred more frequently than positive ones, highlighting the continued stability of the index within its recent range.
Written by Arab Chain

With holders who’ve been holding since Bitcoin’s early days, it’s more accurate to focus on what’s happening on the active supply side instead, notably through the True Market Mean.
This indicator provides the average price of active BTC, meaning it excludes from the count all coins that haven’t moved in a very long time, since their valuation basis no longer has anything to do with today’s valuations, and since they are partly lost BTC, they end up being illiquid.
Currently the TMM is estimated at around $76,700 and acts as resistance, as we saw in May when many investors seemed to prefer exiting the market without a loss rather than continuing to hold.
Combined with the AVIV ratio (Active Value to Investor Value), which reflects the current market valuation relative to this cost basis of the active supply (TMM).
It’s currently hovering around 0.8, a devaluation zone meaning this active cohort is on average at a 20% loss.
This is starting to be significant but isn’t yet equivalent to previous bear markets where this ratio reached 0.5-0.6, or losses of around 40%-50%.
I’d be tempted to say we don’t necessarily need to reach such a devaluation for BTC to bounce back, especially given the adoption BTC has seen this cycle.
That said, nothing so far contradicts its cyclicality, even the arrival of institutions and ETFs hasn’t changed anything, no matter how many billions of dollars were injected, BTC still dictates its own rules, and for now we owe it to ourselves to at least stay humble in the face of that.
Written by Darkfost

The market is struggling in terms of liquidity.
USDC and USDT market cap are down -3.6% and -2% respectively over the past 30 days.
Overall, we can see that this slowdown has now been in place since November 2025.
This decrease is explained by the fact that more capital has left the crypto market than liquidity has entered it.
To understand this properly, stablecoins are notably issued when demand increases, whereas when demand weakens, issuers burn this unnecessary surplus, which allows us to gauge demand and liquidity flows.
For now, we remain in an environment where liquidity is increasingly constrained.
Written by Darkfost

Following Binance’s June 26 announcement to delist ALCX (effective July 10), the token’s on-chain dynamics experienced a violent structural shift. The initial news triggered an immediate ~30% price contraction. Concurrently, network data reveals a massive 1,289% week-over-week surge in Binance withdrawal transactions, peaking at an anomaly of 614 individual withdrawal counts on July 1 (compared to a baseline of under 20).
A major exchange delisting inherently creates a localized liquidity vacuum. The explosive 3,856% surge in Binance inflows combined with a 1,484% spike in outflows illustrates a classic “forced migration” phase. Retail users are likely panic-selling their positions (driving inflows), while savvy investors, market makers, and arbitrageurs are rapidly withdrawing tokens to self-custody or alternative exchanges (driving the massive outflows) before the trading pairs are suspended.
Interestingly, while the price action reflects severe capitulation, broader network activity metrics—such as active addresses (+107%) and total token transfers (+510%)—have skyrocketed. However, unlike organic utility-driven growth, this spike in activity is purely defensive. The persistent negative netflow (-285%) confirms that, ultimately, capital is fleeing the Binance ecosystem, fundamentally altering the token’s distribution landscape.
This abrupt structural reorganization creates conditions of extreme short-term fragility. As the July 10 deadline approaches, the continued draining of Binance’s liquidity pool may lead to erratic volatility. Historically, tokens facing similar delisting events experience severe downward pressure followed by a potential stabilization phase, once the forced-selling exhaustion is reached and the new fragmented liquidity landscape takes shape.
Written by CryptoOnchain