There are two valid higher timeframe Elliott Wave counts for Bitcoin right now. Both explain the price action cleanly, but they point to very different paths ahead. What happens with structure from here will be critical.
--- Primary Scenario
Ending Diagonal Top at $126k in October 2025
This is the count that best fits the traditional 4-year cycle narrative. • Wave 5 completed as an Ending Diagonal, topping at $126k in October 2025 • Since that high, we have seen a clear 5 wave impulsive move down • That move down is counted as an A Wave within a larger Zigzag correction
What this implies next • A B Wave recovery is expected • Target zone for this bounce is roughly $90k to $100k • After the B Wave completes, a 5 wave impulsive C Wave lower should follow • That C Wave is likely to bottom in Q3 or Q4 this year
Under this scenario, upside strength is corrective,.
--- Alternate Scenario
Impulse Top at $109k in January 2025
This count breaks the classic 4-year cycle narrative but fits the structure extremely well. • A clean 5 wave impulsive move from $15.5k to $109k • That completed a full impulse sequence • The following correction unfolded as an Expanded Flat
Expanded Flat structure • A Wave: 3 waves down to $74k • B Wave: 3 waves up to $126k • C Wave: 5 wave impulsive decline to $60k
This completes the correction and finishes Intermediate Wave 2.
What this implies next • The correction is already complete • Bitcoin should now be starting a new impulsive Wave 3 • Wave 3 would target new all time highs, well beyond $126k
Under this scenario, weakness is already behind us and the next major move is impulsive to the upside.
--- From this point forward, price structure will tell us which scenario is playing out. • The Primary Count expects a 3 wave corrective move up toward $90k to $100k • The Alternate Count expects a 5 wave impulsive move that pushes into new all time highs #Squar2earn #bitcoin #ETH #sol
As discussed in my lower timeframe post yesterday, structure is still not fully resolved. At this stage it is unclear whether the low is already in or whether we see one final push lower before a more meaningful move develops.
From a higher timeframe perspective, regardless of whether the low is already formed or still ahead of us, Bitcoin is positioned for at least a recovery bounce. Weekly RSI is now below 30, a level that has historically only occurred roughly once every four years. The last instance was June 2022.
Based on probabilities, I am leaning toward a recovery bounce first, with the possibility of another move lower afterward, likely as a C Wave. That said, structure will ultimately guide us, and I will be watching closely as it unfolds.
From here: • A three-wave corrective zigzag would suggest a B Wave recovery before a C Wave decline. • A five-wave impulsive move would signal upside continuation and open the door to new highs.
Patience is key here. Let the structure confirm the path.
$12 TRILLION just got erased from global markets in 3 days. • Gold dumped 13% • Silver nuked 37% (worst single-day crash since March 1980) • Bitcoin fell from $88K → $66K • First bank of 2026 just collapsed • Dollar down 2%
So the question is…
Where did the money go?
Straight into the pockets of the people who sold you greed.
This was the oldest manipulation playbook in the book:
They sold: • Gold at $5,600 • Silver at $120 • Bitcoin at $126K
While you were buying the “supercycle” narrative…
They were dumping bags on your head.
⸻
Then January 30 hit.
Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.
And markets INSTANTLY understood what that meant.
Warsh is the guy who’s spent YEARS saying: • QE inflates asset prices • QE creates massive inequality • The Fed has become the problem • The balance sheet must be aggressively shrunk
He literally called for “regime change” at the Fed.
So the market heard one thing loud and clear:
✅ Less liquidity ✅ Tighter conditions ✅ Higher real rates ✅ No more bailouts ✅ Cheap money era = DEAD
⸻
And here’s the dirty part 👇
A bunch of Polymarket insiders knew Warsh was getting nominated WEEKS before it happened.
Meaning…
Informed money already positioned. Retail was the exit.
⸻
Now add fuel to the fire:
CME raised margins right before the crash: • Silver margins up 25% • Gold margins up 10%
That forces traders to: • Sell • Or come up with more cash fast
Shanghai Gold Exchange pulled the same move on December 30th.
This wasn’t “natural selling.”
This was a forced liquidation event.
⸻
But here’s the truth:
This kind of wipeout creates generational opportunity.
Not today. Not next week.
But in 6–12 months when the pain finally breaks people.
When: • Gold is at $3,500 and everyone screams it’s going to $2,000 • Bitcoin is at $40K and crypto is declared DEAD • Fear is maxed out • Hope is gone • Sentiment is worse than after FTX
That’s when wealth is made.
⸻
Your uncle won’t survive the waiting.
Most people won’t.
That’s why most lose.
I’ve been warning about this since November while everyone was still bullish.
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Binance Angels
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This is not about headlines. This is about capital rotation before price discovery. 🔥 FIRST PRINCIPLE (READ CAREFULLY) Crypto doesn’t lead cycles. Crypto AMPLIFIES them. Macro → Liquidity → Risk Appetite → Crypto EXPLOSION If you’re waiting for confirmation, you’re already late.
📈 WHAT JUST SHIFTED (ALPHA VIEW) 🟡 Global trade certainty ↑ 🟡 Institutional confidence ↑ 🟡 Capital efficiency ↑ 🟡 Long-term growth narrative locked in ⚠️ When macro risk drops, liquidity turns aggressive.
Liquidity doesn’t sleep in bonds. It hunts asymmetric upside. 🧠 WHY THIS IS BULLISH FOR CRYPTO • Crypto = highest beta asset class • Institutions rotate AFTER equities stabilize • BTC becomes liquidity sponge • Alts follow once BTC confirms trend
🚨 This is how multi-month expansions start — quietly, boringly, invisibly. 🟡⚫ ALPHA SIGNALS TO WATCH ✅ BTC holding higher lows ✅ Stablecoin supply expansion ✅ Risk-on behavior in equities ✅ Volatility compression before expansion When volatility compresses, directional violence follows. 🚫 WHAT RETAIL GETS WRONG ❌ “No instant pump = fake news” ❌ “Waiting for breakout to buy” ❌ “Over-leveraging headlines”
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🟨 GOLD ✔ Trusted for 5,000+ years ✔ Physical & tangible asset ✔ Low volatility ✔ Used by central banks ✖ Hard to store & transport ✖ Limited upside in modern cycles
🟧 BITCOIN (BTC) ✔ Born in 2009 for the digital era ✔ Fixed supply: 21 Million ✔ Borderless & censorship-resistant ✔ High growth potential ✖ High volatility ✖ Still evolving regulation
🧠 Politics Moves Markets Trump is back in control of the narrative — markets reacted positively, liquidity whispers are getting louder, and crypto remains the most sensitive beneficiary.
🔐 Ledger Shockwave Ledger suffered a major data incident. If you’ve ever bought directly, assume your personal info may be exposed. Self-custody now also means personal security awareness.
⚠️ Physical Risk Rising “Wrench attacks” on crypto holders appear to be increasing. As adoption grows, so does real-world risk. Security ≠ just private keys anymore.
📉 Bitcoin: Compression Phase BTC rejected again near $94–95K. Volatility is at multi-week lows — historically a sign that a big move is loading.
🌍 Global Chaos Watch Iran unrest, geopolitical rumors, and capital uncertainty continue to push the long-term case for permissionless money.
🟣 Ethereum Moment Vitalik signals a turning point: Ethereum aims to be a neutral, censorship-resistant world computer — not Web2 with extra steps.
⚡ Solana Tensions Validator incentives and real-world behavior raise questions. Narrative intact, but cracks are being watched closely.
📊 Altcoin Reality Check Zcash & TON faced FUD. Most alts struggle to justify valuations — revenue and fundamentals are becoming non-negotiable.
💡 Big Picture Liquidity, geopolitics, and infrastructure narratives are converging. The quiet weeks often come before violent moves.