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MYX Finance has entered a critical phase after weeks of intense selling pressure. The token has suffered a steep decline amid broader bearish crypto market conditions. 

Heavy profit-taking and forced exits accelerated the fall. MYX has now become a focal point of concern among traders

MYX Finance Token Forms History

MYX’s correlation with Bitcoin has shifted sharply since February 8. The coefficient improved from negative 0.42 to positive 0.47. This change indicates that MYX is increasingly tracking Bitcoin’s price movements.

However, this alignment presents risk. Since February 8, Bitcoin has remained in consolidation without meaningful recovery. A stronger positive correlation suggests MYX may continue mirroring Bitcoin’s weakness. Without a BTC breakout, bearish conditions could persist for MYX.

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MYX Correlation To Bitcoin. Source: TradingView

The Money Flow Index highlights the intensity of recent selling. The indicator shows severe capital outflows as investors rushed to exit positions. Panic selling, combined with leveraged liquidations, intensified downward pressure.

This wave of capitulation has pushed MYX into oversold territory for the first time in its trading history. Typically, oversold conditions suggest selling may slow as value-focused buyers step in. In many cases, such readings precede short-term relief rallies.

MYX MFI. Source: TradingView

However, context matters. Oversold signals alone do not guarantee immediate recovery. Broader market weakness and fragile sentiment could delay accumulation. If Bitcoin fails to stabilize, MYX may struggle to attract fresh capital despite extreme technical readings.

MYX Price Bounce Back Unlikely

MYX price is down nearly 30% in the past 24 hours. The token trades at $1.50 at the time of writing. This sharp drop compounds a 70% decline recorded since February 8, reinforcing the scale of the correction.

Current technical and macro signals suggest further downside risk. Continued correlation with Bitcoin and persistent outflows could pressure MYX lower. A retest of the $1.22 level appears plausible before oversold conditions trigger meaningful stabilization.

MYX Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Conversely, investor behavior could shift sooner than expected. If holders halt selling and begin accumulating at discounted levels, momentum may change. Reclaiming the $1.68 support level would mark an early recovery signal. A confirmed bounce could open MYX price’s path toward $2.01 and potentially higher, invalidating the prevailing bearish outlook.

The term “SaaSpocalypse” is trending across financial markets, tech media, and investor circles. It refers to a sudden loss of confidence in software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies after the launch of advanced AI agents capable of automating tasks traditionally handled by enterprise software. 

The term became popular after Anthropic released its Claude Cowork AI platform in late January. Following its launch, nearly $300 billion in global software market value was erased. Stocks of major SaaS firms—including Salesforce, Workday, Atlassian, and ServiceNow—fell sharply as investors questioned whether AI agents could replace large parts of their business.

AI Agents Trigger Market Panic

The core fear driving the SaaSpocalypse is simple: AI agents can now perform entire workflows autonomously. 

Tools like Claude Cowork can review contracts, analyze sales data, generate reports, and execute multi-step tasks across multiple applications. 

Instead of employees using five separate SaaS tools, a single AI agent can complete the same work.

This directly threatens the SaaS pricing model, which typically charges companies per user or “seat.” If AI reduces the need for human users, companies may need fewer licenses. Investors reacted quickly to this risk. 

The S&P 500 Software and Services Index fell nearly 19% in early February, marking its worst losing streak in years. 

At the same time, capital rotated toward AI infrastructure providers such as Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon, which supply the compute power behind AI agents.

S&P 500 Software and Services Index Price Chart. Source: Yahoo Finance Why the SaaSpocalypse Matters Beyond Software

The SaaSpocalypse reflects a deeper shift in how software creates value. Instead of selling tools that humans operate, companies are beginning to sell outcomes delivered by AI. 

Analysts now describe this as a transition from software-as-a-service to “AI-as-a-service.” This shift challenges decades-old business models and forces software companies to rethink pricing, licensing, and product strategy.

However, this is not necessarily the end of SaaS. Many enterprises will still rely on established platforms for security, compliance, and data management. 

Instead, the disruption will likely reshape the industry, forcing software companies to integrate AI deeply into their products.

How the SaaSpocalypse Could Impact Crypto Markets

The SaaSpocalypse is already affecting crypto markets indirectly. Both crypto and SaaS are considered high-growth, risk-sensitive sectors. 

When investors sell software stocks, they often reduce exposure to crypto as well. In early February 2026, Bitcoin fell sharply as software stocks also posted heavy losses.

More importantly, capital is shifting toward AI. Venture capital invested over $200 billion into AI startups in 2025—far more than crypto received. 

This means fewer resources may flow into new crypto projects, slowing innovation in some areas.

Top AI Coins by Market Cap. Source: CoinGecko

At the same time, crypto could benefit in specific niches such as decentralized computing and AI infrastructure. 

But overall, the SaaSpocalypse signals a major capital rotation. AI is becoming the dominant investment theme, and crypto markets will need to compete for investor attention in this new environment.

The US stock market opened lower on February 17, 2026. It is the first session after Presidents’ Day, with the S&P 500 trading around 6,840 at press time. The Index is down approximately 0.65% (around 44 points) from Friday’s high, but up almost 0.58% since today’s open. This hints at buyers stepping in across sectors.

Persistent “SaaSpocalypse” fears that AI will disrupt traditional software and tech models continue to pressure the market. This makes Information Technology the weakest sector, down 1.5% intraday. Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS) leads the top laggards, falling 1.6% amid broader AI anxiety.

Top US Stock Market News:

•  Empire State Manufacturing Index: The New York Fed’s survey showed modest regional expansion in February at +7.1. It is slightly below January’s +7.7 but above forecasts. This leading gauge for US factory activity offers some reassurance against slowdown fears.

•  Canadian CPI Cools: January headline inflation eased to 2.3% YoY (from 2.4%), driven by lower gasoline prices. The softer print strengthens the disinflation narrative and could preview similar trends in US data, supporting Fed rate-cut hopes.

•  US-Iran Indirect Talks Resume: Discussions in Geneva today focused on nuclear issues and de-escalation. Progress could help stabilize oil markets and reduce volatility in the energy and global trade sectors.

S&P 500 Tests Key Level As AI Disruption Fears Weigh on Wall Street

Wall Street remains cautious on February 17, 2026, with the US stock market trading mixed but overall subdued amid persistent SaaSpocalypse fears. The S&P 500 opened weaker, briefly dipping below its 100-day EMA before reclaiming it.

The index stabilized around 6,834–6,841 mid-session, down 0.65% intraday from its February 13 high.

The trend suggests the market might recover mildly, but the key to a broader recovery lies above the highs set on February 13 (Friday).

This echoes the late-November 2025 scenario. The index lost the 100-day EMA on November 28 but reclaimed it quickly the next session, triggering a strong rally. The S&P 500 gained approximately 7.38% from late November into late January.

S&P 500 Index Analysis: TradingView

The 100-day EMA has acted as strong support since then. Key support now sits around this zone, at around 6,819. A close below could invite broader weakness toward 6,762 and 6,705. A decisive push above 6,889 (above Friday’s high) could target the psychological 7,000 level.

However, stagflation-like concerns (sticky inflation, growth slowdown) and AI disruption anxiety limit upside conviction.

Nasdaq Composite trades deeper in the red, highlighting tech’s drag. Tech’s 33% S&P 500 weight amplifies the impact on the broader index.

Index View (11:50 AM), Trending Down: Finviz

VIX, the Volatility Index, eased 1.08% to 20.97 (from higher early-session levels), signaling reduced volatility as the day progressed, though still elevated relative to recent lows and reflecting caution.

VIX Index: CNBC

The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.05% (down modestly today, near 2.5-month lows).

Treasury Yield: CNBC

It reflects flight-to-safety flows and softer inflation expectations; supportive for bonds but pressuring growth stocks and crypto amid delayed rate-cut bets.

Sector Rotation in Focus: Defensives Shine While Tech Drags

The US stock market’s mixed tone on February 17, 2026, reveals pronounced sector rotation. Technology (XLK) is the standout laggard, down approximately 1.24% from February 13 highs (currently trading -0.37% on the day).

XLK is the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, managed by State Street Global Advisors, one of the flagship sector ETFs that slices the S&P 500 into its 11 GICS sectors for targeted exposure.

It tracks major tech names (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple) and software/semiconductor companies. This makes XLK sensitive to growth sentiment and AI-related developments.

The XLK chart shows a developing head-and-shoulders pattern, a bearish structure. The neckline holds steady near 133; a decisive break below could confirm the pattern and trigger a 10% downside move (measured from head to neckline), potentially pushing toward 129 or even 120 in a deeper correction if broader market conditions or AI concerns worsen.

XLK Price Analysis: TradingView

Utilities (XLU) continues to show relative strength after rallying 2.5% on Friday. While it’s down 0.40% today in line with broader weakness, the sector remains the strongest performer on a weekly basis.

Key Sectors Looking Strong: State Street

This flow, from growth/tech into defensives and value, explains why the S&P 500 can trade flat-to-lower despite green pockets: tech’s 33% index weight magnifies XLK weakness, overshadowing gains elsewhere.

The bearish setup invalidates on a reclaim of 141–144; a move above 150 would fully negate the threat.

Synopsys (SNPS) Drops 4.4% As AI Anxiety Hammers Software Stocks

Synopsys (SNPS) is one of the standout US stock market laggards. It is trading at approximately 419 after dropping 4.43% intraday, at press time.

As a leading EDA software and semiconductor IP provider, SNPS is closely tied to the software infrastructure subsector. This leaves it vulnerable to ongoing concerns that AI may reshape chip-design workflows.

In the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), SNPS carries a modest weight of 0.72%. This limits its direct ETF impact but serves as a strong proxy for software weakness (e.g., ORCL -3.85%, CRWD -5.12%, FTNT -4.11%).

Stock Heatmap: Finviz

The daily chart shows SNPS trading inside a bear flag pattern following a 24% correction that began January 12, 2026, with the February 4 rebound/consolidation keeping price contained within the flag. It attempted a breakdown today, but buyers defended so far.

SNPS Price Analysis: TradingView

A confirmed break below 416 could activate the pattern, projecting downside toward 322 (over 20% from current levels). Intermediate support levels sit at 402 and 371.

The bearish setup invalidates on a reclaim of 451. This reinforces rotation away from software/growth names into defensives, adding to Nasdaq’s relative pressure.

Solana remains under sustained pressure as broader market conditions deteriorate. SOL has extended its downtrend for several weeks, reflecting reduced investor confidence. 

Recent on-chain data reveals a surge in exchange-directed supply. Roughly $202 million worth of SOL has moved to trading platforms since the beginning of the month. This wave of selling has intensified bearish momentum and revived capitulation signals not observed since 2022.

Solana Holders Are Selling

Active deposits on the Solana network have started declining after a sharp rise earlier this month. This metric tracks tokens transferred to exchanges, often signaling intent to sell.

Despite moderating deposit flows, exchange balances continue to reflect elevated supply. Over the past 17 days, exchange wallets have added 2.35 million SOL. At current prices, this increase equates to approximately $202 million in additional sell-side liquidity.

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Solana Balance On Exchanges. Source: Glassnode

Rising exchange reserves generally amplify downward pressure. Larger balances make it easier for traders to execute sell orders. However, this influx has also triggered a historical capitulation signal. Similar spikes in exchange supply previously aligned with late-stage bear market conditions.

The MVRV Pricing Bands provide critical valuation context. Solana’s price is currently trading below the Extreme Lows deviation band. For this classification, the Market Value to Realized Value ratio must stay below 0.8 for roughly 5% of trading days.

SOL has remained beneath that threshold for 26% of recent sessions. This confirms a prolonged undervaluation phase. The only comparable event occurred in May 2022. Following that period, Solana remained depressed for 17 months before staging a meaningful recovery.

Solana MVRV Pricing Bands. Source: Glassnode SOL Price Downtrend Continues

Solana is trading at $86 at the time of writing. The token remains capped below the $90 resistance while holding above the $81 support zone. A move above $90 would intersect the prevailing downtrend line, signaling potential technical improvement.

However, current data suggests downside risk persists. Continued exchange inflows and weak macro momentum could pressure SOL further. A decisive break below $81 may expose the next support near $67, extending the drawdown.

Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, reclaiming $90 would shift short-term sentiment. A breakout above the descending trendline could attract renewed capital inflows. If momentum strengthens, SOL may rally toward $105 and potentially higher, invalidating the prevailing bearish thesis.

Pi Coin price has gone through a sharp roller-coaster-like move over the past month. Between Jan. 14 and Feb. 11, Pi Coin fell nearly 38% as sentiment collapsed and sellers dominated. But the trend reversed quickly. Since Feb. 11, Pi Coin surged as much as 58% before correcting again.

Now, sentiment is improving once more for the Pi Network’s native token, and charts show this correction may not be a reversal. Instead, it could be preparation for the next breakout. Momentum, money flow, and price structure now explain why a much larger 60% move may still be possible.

Sentiment Collapse and Recovery Explain Pi Coin’s Roller-Coaster Move

Investor sentiment played a key role in Pi Coin’s recent volatility. Positive sentiment, which measures how optimistic investors feel based on social and market data, dropped sharply between December and early February. The sentiment score fell from 9.06 in early December to nearly zero by Feb. 4.

Pi Network Sentiment: Santiment

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This collapse aligned with Pi Coin’s earlier range-bound move and the 38% price decline post Jan.14.

Erratic Price Action: TradingView

However, sentiment began improving again after Feb. 4. By Feb. 17, the score recovered to 3.82, aligning with the sharp price surge between Feb. 11 and Feb. 15 (over 58%). While still below earlier highs, this sentiment rebound, both before and after the rally, shows confidence is slowly returning.

This shift helps explain why Pi Coin quickly reversed its downtrend and began recovering. But the recovery itself was not random. It followed a precise technical breakout.

Breakout Pattern Completed, But Dip Buyers Still Active?

Pi Coin formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a bullish structure that signals a trend reversal after a decline. This pattern completed on Feb. 14 and pushed Pi Coin up roughly 26% toward its $0.206 level.

This level acted as the breakout target, and once reached, many traders took profits. This explains the large upper wick and the sharp pullback that followed. However, the Money Flow Index (MFI) tells a deeper story. The MFI measures buying and selling pressure by combining price and volume. When MFI forms higher lows, it possibly indicates that buyers continue to enter on dips.

Despite the correction, PI’s MFI stayed elevated, close enough to its recent local peak. This confirms dip buyers remained active and present even during the pullback.

Previous Breakout Target Hit: TradingView

This behavior often appears when investors position for another move higher. That raises the next question. Why are buyers still accumulating after the breakout target already completed? The answer appears in Pi Coin’s current price structure.

Bull Flag and EMA Crossover Show Next Breakout Structure Forming

After completing its first breakout, Pi Coin entered consolidation, a 19% dip from $0.206. This consolidation is forming a bull flag pattern. A bull flag is a continuation pattern where price pauses briefly before starting another rally.

At the same time, Pi Coin’s Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are signaling growing strength. The 20-period EMA is now approaching a crossover above the 50-period EMA, a potential bullish crossover. The EMA measures the average price over time, and when shorter-term averages cross above longer-term averages, it signals strengthening momentum.

Pi Coin Breakout Structure: TradingView

This alignment explains why dip buyers continue entering.

However, timing is critical. If consolidation continues too long, the pattern could weaken. Bull flags require relatively quick breakouts to remain valid. This urgency also explains why buying pressure has remained steady. All of this now brings attention to Pi Coin’s key breakout levels.

Pi Coin Price Targets 60% Move if Key Breakout Level Clears

The immediate resistance level sits at $0.184. Pi Coin has tested this level multiple times but has not yet confirmed a breakout.

If Pi Coin closes above $0.184, the next targets are $0.204 and $0.242. The full bull flag projection points toward $0.290, representing a potential 60% rally from the breakout level. However, downside risk remains.

PI Price Analysis: TradingView

If Pi Coin falls below $0.158, the bull flag pattern would be invalidated. Extended sideways movement could also weaken the setup if consolidation becomes too large relative to the original breakout move. For now, the structure remains intact.

Pi Coin has already completed one breakout. Sentiment is improving. Money flow shows that dip buyers remain active, and the price structure is preparing for another potential breakout. The next confirmed move above resistance will determine whether Pi Coin can complete its larger 60% rally setup.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee and settle in—markets are shifting, fear is rising, and Bitcoin is dancing to a tense global rhythm. From geopolitical sparks to shadowy traders making millions, the pioneer crypto is on edge, teetering between consolidation and sudden, dramatic moves.

Crypto News of the Day: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Fear Shake Bitcoin

Bitcoin dropped sharply ahead of the US market open on Tuesday, extending a volatile start to 2026 amid geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns.

The pioneer crypto fell 1.7% to roughly $67,600, mirroring weakness in equity futures. The Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 0.9% while the S&P 500 contracts dropped 0.6%, signaling a softer start on Wall Street.

Bitcoin’s correlation with high-beta tech stocks has strengthened in recent months, making the pioneer crypto increasingly sensitive to risk-off sentiment in equities.

“Investors are turning cautious amid rising tensions around Iran, fresh debate over AI’s broader economic impact, and uncertainty over Federal Reserve rate cuts after recent inflation data,” reported Walter Bloomberg on X.

The macro backdrop has contributed to sustained outflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs. Last week alone, investors withdrew $360 million, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows. Source: SoSoValue

The combination of geopolitical uncertainty, ETF withdrawals, and leverage unwinds has pushed Bitcoin down by more than 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000.

“Analysts now view $60,000 as key near-term support, while further macro shocks could see prices revisit the $50,000 range,” Walter added.

It aligns with a recent Galaxy Digital projection, in which head of research Alex Thorn estimated Bitcoin drifting toward the 200-week average near $58,000.

Meanwhile, market sentiment is at levels not seen since the depths of the 2022 bear market, with only 55% of Bitcoin’s supply currently in profit and roughly 10 million BTC held at a loss.

Elsewhere, CryptoQuant’s Fear and Greed Index suggests extreme caution, at 10, firmly in the “extreme fear” zone.

CryptoQuant Fear and Greed Index. Source: CryptoQuant Dashboard Shadow Shorts and Safe-Haven Bets Highlight Crypto’s Risk-Off Mood

Adding to the market’s nervous undertone is the presence of aggressive short positions. Reports indicate that a not-so-popular trader has made $7 million by shorting multiple crypto assets, including $3.7 million on Ethereum and $1.45 million on ENA.

While largely anonymous, this trader exemplifies the growing sophistication and audacity of market participants betting on downside risk.

Meanwhile, broader investor behavior also reflects a flight toward perceived safety. The February global fund manager survey from Bank of America (BofA) highlighted gold as the most crowded trade, with 50% of managers holding long positions, while top US tech stocks (Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla) ranked second, cited by 20% of respondents.

This preference for traditional hedges reflects heightened risk aversion in financial markets. Despite the current turbulence, investors should not act in panic. Bitcoin’s history suggests it often consolidates after sharp pullbacks before resuming longer-term trends.

However, the combination of geopolitical flashpoints, ETF outflows, concentrated shorting activity, and extreme fear readings suggests that market volatility may persist in the near term.

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin, Nasdaq, S&P500 Price Performance. Source: TradingView Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

$1.28 trillion wiped out as gold & silver crash—Is Lunar New Year liquidity driving the drop?

Several crypto media outlets remove scam study, sources allege external pressure.

Metaplanet reports FY2025 results as Bitcoin unrealized losses top $1 billion.

Why are traders betting on $20,000 gold price after a historic crash?

Kevin O’Leary warns Bitcoin’s quantum problem may be bigger than expected.

XRP builds pressure as holders accumulate — Is a break above $2 next?

Why Bitcoin could face another dump in February.

XMR price jumps 10% after new report on Monero’s shadow market dominance.

Bitcoin or gold? Strategist says it’s a bet on Trump’s success vs. America’s failure.

Veteran analyst says Bitcoin’s safe-haven dream is cracking — but crypto’s next era may just be beginning.

The BitMine stock price has started showing early signs of recovery. BMNR rose 6% on Feb. 13 before closing and is up 7.32% over the past five days. This rebound comes even as Ethereum, which BitMine closely tracks due to its ETH treasury exposure, has fallen 3.3% over the past week. This divergence suggests BitMine’s stock price may be trying to catch up.

BMNR charts also show that this rebound may be weak despite big players like Citigroup increasing BMNR holdings quarter-on-quarter. The bearish structure is still active, and the next few trading sessions could decide whether BitMine continues recovering or enters another major drop.

Bear Flag Structure Shows Recovery Attempt — But Breakdown Risk Remains

The BitMine stock price has been trading inside a bear flag pattern since early February. A bear flag forms after a sharp decline, followed by a temporary upward consolidation. This pattern often leads to another drop if buyers fail to fully regain control.

Between Dec. 10, 2025, and Feb. 5, 2026, BitMine’s stock price fell nearly 60%. This steep drop created the “pole” phase of the pattern. Since Feb. 5, the stock has rebounded about 26%, forming a bear “flag” pattern, which represents a recovery attempt.

BitMine’s Bearish Pattern: TradingView

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However, this recovery remains inside the bearish structure. Unless the stock breaks above key resistance levels, this rebound could simply be a temporary pause before another decline.

If the bear flag confirms, BitMine’s stock price could fall by nearly a 60% drop from the lower trendline breach point. This raises a critical question. If the BitMine stock price is recovering, why does the breakdown risk still remain high?

The answer becomes clearer when looking at momentum indicators.

Hidden Bearish Divergence Shows BMNR Sellers Still Maintain Control

Momentum analysis using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of underlying weakness. RSI is an indicator that measures buying and selling strength on a scale from 0 to 100. When RSI rises while price struggles, it can signal weakening buyer strength.

The BitMine stock price formed a hidden bearish divergence between Nov. 18, 2025, and Feb. 9, 2026. During this period, the price created a lower high, while RSI formed a higher high. This pattern typically signals that sellers remain in control and further downside may follow.

After this divergence appeared, BitMine’s stock price dropped by over 14%.

Now, a similar setup appears to be forming again. RSI has started rising, but the price still remains below key resistance near $21.57. If the stock fails to break above this level, another bearish divergence could confirm.

RSI Divergence Highlights Risk: TradingView

This would increase the probability of a breakdown from the bear flag pattern. However, momentum alone does not fully explain price direction. Capital flow data provides another important clue.

Capital Flow Remains Weak Despite Institutional Buying

Institutional interest in BitMine has increased significantly. Citigroup raised its ownership stake by over 540%, while firms like BlackRock and BNY Mellon also expanded their exposure. Normally, such buying would support price growth.

The Fintel snapshot shows Citigroup’s addition but also highlights several BMNR dumps by firms like Baird Financial, Resources Investment Advisors, and more, which can be alarming to the price.

Institutional BMNR Holdings: Fintel

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows a similar picture. CMF measures whether large investors are putting money into or taking money out of an asset. When CMF stays below zero, it signals that overall capital is still leaving the asset.

CMF Still Weak: TradingView

BitMine’s CMF has started rising gradually, showing that selling pressure is slowing. But the indicator remains below the zero line. This means total institutional buying has not yet fully reversed the broader selling trend. This creates a conflict. While some major firms are increasing exposure, overall, large-scale money flow remains cautious, as highlighted by the earlier snapshot.

This explains why BitMine’s stock price recovery still appears weak.

Price Levels Now Decide Whether BitMine Stock Price Recovers or Breaks Down

The BitMine stock price now sits at a critical level. If BMNR breaks above resistance between $21.57 and $21.74, the bearish structure would weaken for now. This could allow the stock to rise toward $29.60 and potentially $34.03, provided ETH also gains strength.

Such a move would confirm that buyers have regained control. However, downside risk remains significant.

If the BMNR stock price falls below the $20.02 support level, the bear flag breakdown could begin. This may push the stock toward lower support levels at $15.05 and $11.22. A full breakdown could eventually send the stock toward $8.36.

BMNR Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, BitMine’s stock price sits at a turning point. Citigroup’s aggressive accumulation shows institutional confidence. But bearish momentum and weak capital inflows still limit recovery strength.

The next few trading sessions will likely decide whether Tom Lee’s BMNR follows institutional optimism higher or confirms the bearish breakdown pattern.

Crypto market sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with Matrixport’s Greed & Fear index falling to extremely depressed levels, suggesting the market may be approaching another inflection point.

Even so, Matrixport suggested that Bitcoin may still see downside ahead.

Sentiment Signals Possible Inflection Point For Bitcoin 

In a recent market update, Matrixport said overall sentiment has dropped to extreme lows, reflecting broad-based pessimism across the digital asset space.

The firm highlighted its proprietary Bitcoin fear and greed gauge, explaining that “durable bottoms” have typically emerged when the 21-day moving average dips below zero and subsequently begins to turn upward. The setup appears to be in place, according to the chart.

“This transition signals that selling pressure is becoming exhausted and that market conditions are beginning to stabilize,” the post read.

Matrixport’s Greed & Fear index. Source: X/Matrixport Official

The report added that, given the cyclical relationship between sentiment and Bitcoin price action, the latest extreme reading may indicate that the market is nearing another potential turning point.

At the same time, Matrixport warned that prices may continue to decline in the near term. 

“While caution remains warranted, the current environment is increasingly forcing us to sharpen our focus and prepare for the conditions that typically precede a meaningful rebound,” the firm said.

On-Chain Indicators Signal Bear Market Stress

Meanwhile, technical indicators strengthen the picture of a stressed Bitcoin market. An analyst, Woominkyu, noted that the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has fallen back into the 0.92-0.94 range, a zone that previously coincided with major bear-market stress periods. 

“In 2019 and 2023, similar readings occurred during deep corrective phases where coins were being spent at a loss. Each time, this zone represented capitulation pressure and structural reset,” the post read.

Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, multiple cycle lows formed around the 0.92 to 0.93 region. The current structure, Woominkyu noted, resembles prior transitions into bear market phases rather than routine mid-cycle pullbacks.

If the metric fails to recover above 1.0 in the near term, it could increase the probability that Bitcoin is entering a broader bearish phase rather than undergoing a simple correction.

True market bottoms, the analyst argued, tend to form only after deeper compression in aSOPR, peak loss realization, and full exhaustion of selling pressure. While the market appears to be entering a stress zone, it may not yet reflect full capitulation.

“aSOPR is signaling structural deterioration. This looks less like a dip and more like a regime shift. The real bottom may still require deeper compression before a durable reversal forms,” the analyst added.

This view aligns with broader bearish projections suggesting Bitcoin could revisit levels below $40,000 before forming a durable bottom.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

BeInCrypto Markets data shows Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,000. A drop below $40,000 would imply a decline of more than 40% from current levels, highlighting the scale of downside risk some analysts believe remains on the table.

For now, sentiment indicators hint at a potential turning point, but on-chain data suggests structural weakness may still need to run its course before a recovery can begin.

Hedera (HBAR) price is up about 1% in the past 24 hours, extending a recovery that has quietly gained strength. Over the past seven days, the Hedera price has climbed 11.3%, showing steady buyer interest returning.

While the monthly and quarterly performance remains negative, recent price behavior suggests something more bullish. The Hedera price may be setting up for a breakout attempt. Charts, momentum signals, and investor activity now explain why a pullback, seen between February 14 and February 15 could strengthen Hedera’s breakout outlook.

Bull Flag Holds Firm — Pullback May Be Preparing the Breakout

HBAR price recently seems to be forming a bullish flag-and-pole pattern on the 12-hour chart. A bull flag forms after a strong upward move (the pole), followed by a controlled pullback that allows the market to stabilize before continuing higher. In this case, the initial rally pushed HBAR price up nearly 50% between Feb. 6 and Feb. 14. After reaching its recent high, the price corrected about 9%.

This decline remained inside the flag structure, which is critical for maintaining the bullish setup.

Instead of breaking lower, the price stabilized and began consolidating. HBAR now trades near $0.101, which sits close to the upper boundary of the flag.

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HBAR Holds The Flag: TradingView

This level acts as the breakout trigger. If price moves above this zone, the next leg of the rally could begin. However, a price pattern alone is not enough to confirm a breakout. Momentum and investor behavior must also support the move.

Bullish Divergence and Strong Dip Buying Show Buyers Regaining Control

Momentum indicators show that selling pressure weakened during the pullback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures buying and selling strength, formed a bullish divergence.

Between Jan. 25 and Feb. 15, the HBAR price made a lower low (stabilizing near a key support level), meaning the price dropped to a weaker level. But during the same period, RSI made a higher low, which shows sellers were losing strength even as the price declined. This pattern signals that buyers were slowly gaining control.

Bullish Divergence: TradingView

This signal appeared as HBAR touched the $0.098 support level, confirming strong buyer presence at this zone.

Exchange flow data supports this trend. Exchange netflow tracks how many coins move into or out of exchanges. When coins leave exchanges, it usually signals accumulation because investors move assets into private wallets instead of preparing to sell.

On Feb. 15, HBAR recorded $2.49 million in exchange outflows, the highest outflow in over a week, when the prices stabilized around $0.098.

Dip Buyers Come In: Coinglass

This shows investors were possibly buying the dip instead of selling, helping stabilize the price and maintain the breakout structure. With momentum and accumulation now aligning, the final confirmation depends on whether investor strength continues near resistance.

Smart Money and Buyer Strength Remain Intact — Could Trigger a 50% Hedera Price Rally

Other key indicators show that buyers still support the trend. The Bull Bear Power indicator, which measures whether buyers or sellers dominate the market, remained positive during the pullback. This confirms buyers stayed in control despite the correction.

The Smart Money Index also remains above its signal line. This indicator tracks the activity of experienced investors, and when it stays above the signal line, it shows that larger investors remain active and invested.

This continued support becomes critical near breakout levels. The key breakout level now sits at $0.101. If HBAR price breaks above this level with strength, the bull flag pattern could activate and push HBAR price toward $0.150, representing nearly a 50% rally. Key resistance levels to that target sit at $0.120 and $0.133, respectively.

HBAR Price Analysis: TradingView

However, downside risk still exists. If HBAR falls below $0.086, the bull flag pattern would fail and cancel the breakout setup.

For now, Hedera’s pullback appears to be a consolidation phase rather than a reversal. The price structure, momentum signals, and investor activity all suggest the breakout attempt remains active. The next move above resistance will determine whether the Hedera price can complete its 50% rally setup.

Building a swap DApp is relatively straightforward. Running it under real market conditions — with bots, arbitrageurs, and volatile liquidity — is not. BeInCrypto sat down with Andrey Fedorov, CMO & CBDO at STON.fi Dev at Consensus Hong Kong to hear what that process actually looked like.

STON.fi launched as an AMM (automated market maker) on TON Blockchain — a swap interface with liquidity pools. Omniston, its liquidity aggregation protocol, came later as a response to fragmentation: multiple DEXs on TON meant users had to manually compare prices across protocols. Omniston was supposed to fix that by aggregating liquidity into a single access point.

Aggregation worked. But scale exposed new constraints.

Three Lessons From Production

Fedorov is candid about what went wrong early on. “First there was just one token, and it was very easy to provide the technology. Activity levels were minimal, and the user base was still small. But over time it exploded.”

The first lesson was scaling. Both the front end and back end buckled under unexpected demand. The second was subtler: multi-hop swaps — routing trades through intermediate tokens — worked in testing but revealed edge cases under live conditions. “In theory, both hops execute seamlessly,” Fedorov explains. “In practice, you have simultaneous transactions, liquidity shifting across pools, and multiple DEXs updating state at once. The first hop can succeed while the second fails.”

The third lesson was about complexity itself. The initial model assumed a simple set of actors: users swap, liquidity providers provide. Reality added arbitrageurs, bots, and more complex interaction patterns that hadn’t yet been fully anticipated. “I don’t think it is actually possible to work out all these things in the beginning. You need to launch it, see how it goes, then fix something if it breaks.”

STON.fi now accounts for 80 to 90 percent of DEX activity on TON, underscoring its dominant share of swap volume on the chain. But cross-chain swaps, next on the roadmap, will reset that counter. “The fundamentals will be the same, but I’m sure we will see new challenges.”

Andrey Fedorov at Consensus HK Why Aggregation Wasn’t Enough

Omniston’s original proposition was to connect all TON DEX pools and find the best route. But aggregating public liquidity has a ceiling. If nobody has added liquidity to a particular pair, no amount of smart routing helps.

“Sometimes people just don’t want to provide liquidity in a specific pool,” Fedorov says. “When a user wants to swap a token in this pool, they can’t get a good price because there is no liquidity.”

The answer was escrow swaps — a parallel execution path that taps into private liquidity from professional market makers, or “resolvers.” Instead of relying solely on AMM pools, Omniston now evaluates both public and private sources and routes each swap through whichever delivers the better outcome.

“It’s not a silver bullet, because we need to have both. The combination provides the best experience.”

Tokenized Equities as a Stress Test

The escrow model proved its value when STON.fi integrated xStocks — tokenized representations of US equities issued by Backed Finance. These are technically TON jettons, but they behave differently from crypto-native tokens in ways that matter for execution.

The harder challenge was liquidity: unlike established crypto pairs, xStocks don’t yet have deep AMM pools across pairs. Technically, AMM support is there. But we also introduced an additional execution path — escrow swaps — so users can access deeper liquidity. Today, most xStocks volume executes through escrow.

From the user’s perspective, Fedorov insists the experience should feel identical to any other swap. “We want our users to forget about technical complexity. Under the hood it is different, but users don’t see it.”

The Self-Custody Trade-off

Fedorov is direct about the constraints of remaining fully non-custodial. 

“Sometimes we see solutions with strong traction — big user bases, high volume. From a business standpoint, integrating them would boost our growth immediately. But many of them are centralized. When I bring those options to our technical team, the answer is simple: it doesn’t work like that.” STON.fi is non-custodial. Users keep their assets in their wallets. Swaps are executed by smart contracts.

Centralized integrations are faster and simpler — often just an API connection. DeFi integrations require trustless, contract-level logic where assets never leave the user’s wallet. “We could grow faster if we compromised on custody. But then we wouldn’t be building DeFi infrastructure — we’d be building another fintech layer.”

The trade-off isn’t only technical. It’s educational. Sometimes this creates a marketing and communication challenge. Self-custody shifts responsibility to the user — something many newcomers underestimate. “If someone loses their seed phrase, we can’t restore access. We don’t have it. We’ve never had it. But quite often users still come to us expecting support, like they would from a bank or centralized exchange.”

In centralized systems, there’s a safety net — password reset, account recovery, customer service with override power. In DeFi, security comes from not having that backdoor. The same mechanism that protects users also removes our ability to intervene.

For STON.fi, that means investing more in onboarding, education, and clearer UX — without diluting the core principle of self-custody.

“It’s a long-term bet. In the short term, education is harder. But in the long term, users understand the value of ownership. Especially in Web3, that’s the point.”

Distribution First, Then Depth

Fedorov frames TON not only as a blockchain choice but also as a distribution strategy because of its integration with Telegram. STON.fi and Omniston integrate with wallets, apps, games, and bots across the Telegram ecosystem — each one a potential swap surface. “They want to use the protocol because they want to enable swaps in their applications. But it is also our distribution network. It’s a win-win.”

The next phase is cross-chain aggregation — starting with Tron, then expanding to EVM chains — to unify liquidity across ecosystems rather than just across DEXs on a single chain.

“Make things easier for those who don’t want to think about technical stuff. Get wider distribution by integrating into all the apps. And aggregate liquidity from multiple blockchains, not just one,” Fedorov says. “That’s the roadmap. Now it’s about scaling it.”

Gold and silver markets are in a sharp correction, with prices falling for a second consecutive session. Commodity-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also declining by as much as 4%.

The sudden downturn has erased an estimated $1.28 trillion in combined market value, reflecting how even traditional safe-haven assets remain vulnerable to macro shocks and liquidity shifts.

Lunar New Year Liquidity and Macro Pressures Fuel Gold and Silver Correction

The decline follows a powerful rally earlier in 2026 that pushed gold above $5,000 per ounce and drove silver to record highs.

Analysts now say the pullback reflects a mix of seasonal factors, macroeconomic pressure, and profit-taking after an extended run-up.

Silver has been hit particularly hard, falling nearly 40% from its all-time high (ATH) of $121.646 recorded in late January.

As of this writing, Silver (XAG) was trading at $74.11, reinforcing its reputation as a more volatile counterpart to gold, given its smaller market size and stronger industrial demand.

Silver (XAG) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

“Gold and Silver wiped out $1.28 trillion today… even ‘safe havens’ bleed,” wrote one analyst, emphasizing the speed of the decline and the risks of assuming stability in any asset class.

Others pointed to the role of market structure and liquidity, arguing that temporary dislocations may occur when key physical markets slow, particularly in Asia.

Lunar New Year Liquidity Effects Come into Focus

Against this backdrop, one of the most widely cited short-term drivers is the Lunar New Year holiday period, during which trading activity across major Asian financial centers declines sharply.

Mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea all experience reduced participation as traders, manufacturers, and market makers step away.

Lower liquidity can amplify price movements in global futures markets, especially for commodities like silver, where physical demand from the Chinese industry plays a major role.

Weaker demand during the holiday period could temporarily pressure prices, with physical buying potentially resuming once factories and exchanges return to full activity.

Analysts Warn of Continued Volatility As Macro Pressures Weigh on Bullion

Beyond seasonal factors, broader macroeconomic developments are also contributing to the downturn. Precious metals came under pressure as investors focused on narratives that strengthen the US dollar in the short term. These include:

Signals from the US Federal Reserve and

Geopolitical developments, including US–Iran negotiations

A firmer dollar typically weighs on bullion by making gold and silver more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand from international buyers.

ETF flows reflect the cautious sentiment. Several gold and silver ETFs declined between 2% and 4%. This mirrors weakness in futures markets and suggests that some investors are locking in profits after the recent rally.

Meanwhile, market strategists say precious metals are now in a “volatile consolidation phase.” After such a strong advance, corrections and sideways trading are common as markets digest gains and rebalance positions.

Therefore, a disciplined approach may be advisable, rather than chasing prices at elevated levels; instead, consider staggered buying during corrections.

Technical analysis also shows key support levels, with estimates placing silver price support near $65 per troy ounce and gold support around $4,770 per ounce on a weekly closing basis.

Gold and Silver Price Performance. Source: TradingView

While these levels could determine whether the current pullback stabilizes or deepens, investors should conduct their own research.

Despite the sharp drop, structural forces such as rising global debt, currency debasement, and historical cycles in ratios, such as the gold–silver ratio, could support a powerful long-term bull market in precious metals.

Gold-Silver Ratio. Source: Longterm Trends

If historical ratio reversals repeat, silver could experience significant upside over the coming decade, potentially reaching dramatically higher price levels by the early 2030s.

Ethereum price is up about 1% over the past 24 hours, holding near the $2,000 level. But this is not the first time Ethereum has tried to recover. Over the past 10 days (between February 6 and February 15), ETH attempted three separate rebounds. Each one showed early strength but failed to continue higher.

Now, charts explain why each failed. The data also shows what must change for Ethereum price prediction to finally turn bullish.

Ascending Triangle Shows Recovery Attempt — But Resistance Lingers

The Ethereum price has been forming an ascending triangle since early February. This pattern forms when buyers push the price gradually higher, while sellers consistently defend the same resistance zone.

The rising trendline shows buyers stepping in earlier during each dip. But the resistance zones near $2,000 and $2,120 have stopped every rebound so far.

Three clear rebound attempts happened. On Feb. 6, the Ethereum price jumped 23% but failed near $2,120. On Feb. 12, the price rose 11% but again failed below resistance. On Feb. 15, the price climbed 7% but eventually stalled under $2,000. Even though buyers returned each time, they could not break through.

One key indicator supporting the recovery attempt is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). CMF measures large investor buying and selling by combining price and volume. When CMF rises above zero, it shows more buying than selling.

Ethereum’s CMF crossed above zero on Feb. 15 (during the third rebound attempt) and remains positive near 0.05. This suggests large investors have started buying again. But the buying strength remains limited so far.

Ethereum Price Rebounds: TradingView

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This raises an important question. If buyers are returning, why does the Ethereum price keep failing? The answer becomes clearer by looking at whales and long-term holders.

Whale and Long-Term Holder Selling Increased

Large investors have been reducing exposure during the same period that Ethereum price tried to recover. Wallets holding large amounts of ETH, known as whales, reduced their holdings from 113.92 million ETH to 113.66 million ETH. This equals a decline of about 260,000 ETH, roughly $500 million.

Ethereum Whales: Santiment

This shows whales were selling ETH during the recovery attempts instead of supporting the price.

Another key metric confirms this trend. The Hodler Net Position Change metric tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or selling. When the metric turns negative, it means long-term holders are selling.

Ethereum’s Holder Net Position Change remained negative between Feb. 3 and Feb. 16 (during the rebound phase). Selling also increased from -13,677 ETH to -18,411 ETH. This marks a 34% rise in selling pressure.

Hodlers Selling: Glassnode

This timing is critical. Each rebound attempt happened during this same period of increased selling.

This explains why the Ethereum price could not sustain its recovery. Even though new buyers entered, long-term holders and whales were exiting. But there is another reason why the $2,000 and $2,120 levels remain difficult to break.

Cost Basis Data Shows Why Ethereum Price Keeps Failing Near $2,000

Cost basis data shows where investors originally bought their Ethereum. This level often becomes resistance when the price returns to it.

The largest cost basis cluster currently sits between $1,995 and $2,015. More than 1.01 million ETH were purchased in this range. This creates strong selling pressure.

Cost Basis Heatmap: Glassnode

When the Ethereum price returns to this level, many investors choose to sell to recover their initial investment. This increases supply and prevents the price from rising further. This pattern matches all three rebound failures.

Each rebound attempt stopped near (or slightly above) this same cost basis zone. This confirms that the Ethereum price must break through this level cleanly to start a stronger recovery. Ethereum price now remains stuck between support and resistance.

Immediate resistance levels are $2,000 (most vital for now) and $2,120, as highlighted earlier. But more detailed levels now come into the picture if we use technical projections. If Ethereum breaks above the $2,120-$2,140 zone, the next upside targets could reach $2,210 and $2,300.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

But failure to break resistance could keep the Ethereum price moving sideways. Support remains near $1,895, and a dip under that would invalidate the trendline-led recovery attempt. The charts show recovery attempts are forming. CMF confirms buyers are returning. But whale selling, long-term holder selling, and cost basis resistance continue blocking the rally.

Ethereum price prediction now depends on whether buyers can finally absorb this selling pressure and break above resistance.

Bitcoin has struggled to regain upward momentum in recent sessions. The price has remained range-bound amid uncertain macro conditions. Volatility in equities and rate expectations has capped recovery attempts.

With short-term signals mixed, attention shifts to long-term holders, or LTHs. This cohort has historically shaped major Bitcoin reversals. Their behavior now offers critical insight into whether BTC is nearing a turning point.

Bitcoin LTHs Have a Critical Support Established

The LTH CBD Heatmap highlights significant supply density above $65,000. This cluster is anchored in the 2024 first-half accumulation range. That zone has repeatedly absorbed recent selling pressure. Strong demand there suggests conviction among experienced Bitcoin holders.

This support band has acted as a buffer during pullbacks. Capital accumulated during prior consolidation phases remains largely dormant. As long as this structure holds, large-scale distribution appears unlikely.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bitcoin LTH CBD Heatmap. Source: Glassnode

A decisive breakdown below this range would change the narrative. It could open the path toward Bitcoin’s Realized Price, currently near $54,000. However, such a move seems less probable while LTH supply remains stable. The data suggests holders are not preparing for capitulation.

How Are LTHs Reacting?

The Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, has recently declined. This metric measures aggregate unrealized gains within long-term wallets. Falling NUPL indicates shrinking profitability among this BTC cohort.

Historically, extended NUPL declines have coincided with deeper price corrections. Similar patterns appeared in February 2020 and June 2022. In those periods, weakening profitability led to broader capitulation events.

Bitcoin LTH NUPL. Source: Glassnode

This cycle appears different. Institutional flows and spot Bitcoin ETF support have strengthened structural demand. Persistent inflows from regulated products provide a stabilizing force. As a result, LTHs may be less inclined to exit positions despite margin compression.

HODLer Net Position Change data shows Bitcoin LTHs are accumulating rather than distributing. Rising green bars on the metric suggest coins are moving into long-term storage. This is a positive sign as their accumulation tends to stick for a long while, unlike STHs, who are prone to selling at the first sign of profits.

Continued inflows into LTH wallets reinforce this trend. Accumulation during uncertainty can slow downside momentum, and if this pattern persists, it may help establish a foundation for a broader Bitcoin price recovery.

Bitcoin HODLer Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode BTC Price Is Still Under Resistance

Bitcoin is trading at $68,282 at the time of writing. The primary near-term target remains reclaiming the $70,000 level. This psychological barrier has capped upside for roughly ten days.

The $68,342 support level is critical in the short term. Strong defense of this zone could enable BTC to challenge the $70,610 resistance. A confirmed breakout may extend gains toward $73,499 and potentially higher if momentum accelerates.

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Downside risk remains present under adverse macro conditions. A break below $65,158 would weaken the current structure. Losing that support could expose Bitcoin to a deeper retracement. In such a scenario, price could gravitate toward the Realized Price near $58,000.

Inside Consensus Hong Kong 2026

This series covers the key debates and trends that emerged from Consensus Hong Kong 2026, drawing on main stage sessions, side events, and on-the-ground interviews during the second week of February.

The RWA War: Stablecoins, Speed, and Control

Crypto’s AI Pivot: Hype, Infrastructure, and a Two-Year Countdown

Crypto’s TradFi Moment: Institutions Are In, but on Their Terms

The numbers keep getting cited at crypto conferences, but at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, they came from a different kind of speaker — not a protocol founder or exchange CEO, but a BlackRock executive doing math on a stage.

The conference surfaced a central tension: institutional capital is enormous, interested, and still mostly watching.

The $2 Trillion Thought Experiment

Nicholas Peach, head of APAC iShares at BlackRock, framed the opportunity in simple math. With roughly $108 trillion in household wealth across Asia, even a 1% allocation to crypto would translate into nearly $2 trillion in inflows, equivalent to about 60% of the current market.

BlackRock’s IBIT, the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF launched in January 2024, has grown to roughly $53 billion in assets, the fastest-growing ETF in history, with Asian investors accounting for a significant share of flows.

Asia Is Already Building the On-Ramps

If institutions want familiar structures, someone has to build them. That race is well underway — and Asia is leading.

Laurent Poirot, Head of Product Strategy and Development for Derivatives at SGX Group, told BeInCrypto in an interview that the exchange’s crypto perpetual futures — launched in late November — reached $2 billion in cumulative trading volume within two months, making it one of the fastest product launches for SGX. More than 60% of trading activity occurred during Asian hours, in contrast to CME, where US hours dominate. Institutional demand is concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and SGX is prioritizing options and dated futures to complete the funding curve rather than expanding into additional tokens.

Notably, SGX has no plans to expand into altcoins. Institutional demand concentrates on Bitcoin and Ethereum; the next step is options and dated futures to complete the funding curve, not a longer list of tokens.

In Japan, major banks are developing stablecoin solutions to create regulated rails for traditional capital, according to Fakhul Miah of GoMining Institutional, who pointed to Hong Kong’s recent approval of ETFs and perpetuals as another major liquidity driver.

Wendy Sun of Matrixport noted that while stablecoin settlement and RWA tokenization dominate industry conversation, internal treasury adoption of stablecoins still awaits standardization. Institutional behavior, she said, is becoming “rule-based and scheduled” rather than opportunistic.

Different Languages: When TradFi Meets On-Chain Yield

At HashKey Cloud’s side event, the gap between what institutions want and what crypto offers became tangible.

Louis Rosher of Zodia Custody — backed by Standard Chartered — described a fundamental trust problem. Traditional financial institutions group all crypto-native firms together and distrust them by default. “A bank CEO with a 40-year career won’t stake it on a single crypto-native counterparty,” Rosher said. Zodia’s strategy is to leverage established banking brands to bridge that gap — a dynamic he projected would persist for the next decade or two. The firm is building DeFi yield access through a Wallet Connect integration, but within a permissioned framework in which each DApp is vetted individually before being offered to clients.

Steven Tung of Quantum Solutions, Japan’s largest digital asset treasury company, identified a more mundane but critical barrier: reporting format. Institutions don’t want block explorers — they want daily statements, audit trails, and custody proofs in formats their compliance teams already understand. Without traditional-style reporting, he argued, the vast majority of institutional capital will never arrive.

Samuel Chong of Lido outlined three prerequisites for institutional-grade participation: the protocol’s security, ecosystem maturity, including custodian integration and slashing insurance, and regulatory alignment with traditional finance frameworks. He also flagged privacy as a hidden barrier — institutions fear that on-chain position exposure invites front-running and targeted attacks.

Regulation: The Variable That Controls Everything

Anthony Scaramucci used his fireside chat to walk through the Clarity Act — the US market structure bill working through the Senate — and its three key sticking points: the level of KYC/AML requirements for DeFi, whether exchanges can pay interest on stablecoins, and restrictions on crypto investments by the Trump administration and its affiliates.

Scaramucci predicted the bill would pass, driven less by conviction than by political math: young Democratic senators don’t want to face crypto industry PAC money in their next elections. But he warned that Trump’s personal crypto ventures — including meme coins — are slowing the process. He called Trump objectively better for crypto than Biden or Harris, while criticizing the self-dealing as harmful to the industry.

That tension was visible on stage when Zak Folkman, co-founder of Trump-linked World Liberty Financial, teased a new forex platform called World Swap built around the project’s USD1 stablecoin. The project’s lending platform has already attracted hundreds of millions in deposits, but its proximity to a sitting president remains a legislative complication Scaramucci flagged directly.

Meanwhile, Asia isn’t waiting. Regulators in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan are establishing frameworks that institutions can actually use. Fakhul Miah noted that institutional onboarding now requires passing “risk committees and operational governance structures” — infrastructure that didn’t exist for on-chain products until recently.

The Market Between Cycles

Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng addressed the Oct. 10 crash head-on, attributing $19 billion in liquidations to macroeconomic shocks — US tariffs and Chinese rare-earth controls — rather than exchange-specific failures. “The US equity market alone saw $150 billion of liquidation,” he said. “The crypto market is much smaller.”

But his broader reading was more revealing. “Retail demand is somewhat more muted compared to the past year, but the institutional deployment, the corporate deployment is still strong,” Teng said. “The smart money is deploying.”

Vicky Wang, president of Amber Premium, put numbers to the shift. Institutional crypto transactions in Asia grew 70% year over year to reach $2.3 trillion by mid-2025, she said. But capital allocation remains conservative — institutions overwhelmingly prefer market-neutral and yield strategies over directional bets. “The institutional participation in Asia, I would say it’s real, but at the same time it’s very cautious,” Wang said.

Among industry participants at the event, the mood was more somber. Trading teams at institutional side events were significantly down from the previous year, with most running identical strategies. The consensus among fund managers was that crypto is becoming a license-driven business where compliance and traditional financial credibility matter more than crypto-native experience. Some noted that serious projects now prefer Nasdaq or HKEX IPOs over token listings — a reversal unthinkable two years ago.

The Endgame Is Finance

Solana Foundation President Lily Liu may have delivered the conference’s clearest thesis. Blockchain’s core value, she argued, is not digital ownership, social networks, or gaming — it’s finance and markets. Her “internet capital markets” framework positions blockchain as infrastructure for making every financial asset accessible to everyone online.

“The end state is moving into assets that have value, can also command price, and bring more inclusivity for five and a half billion people on the internet into capital markets,” Liu said.

GSR’s CJ Fong predicted that most tokenized real-world assets will ultimately be classified as securities, requiring crypto firms to bridge to traditional market infrastructure. That means more competition from traditional players — but also the legitimacy that institutional capital demands.

The $2 trillion that Peach described isn’t arriving tomorrow. But the plumbing is being laid — in Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, and on SGX’s order books — by institutions that have decided crypto is worth building for, even if they’re not ready to bet on it.

(Inside Consensus Hong Kong 2026) — This series covers the key debates and trends that emerged from Consensus Hong Kong 2026, drawing on main stage sessions, side events, and on-the-ground interviews during the second week of February.1. The RWA War: Stablecoins, Speed, and Control2. Crypto’s AI Pivot: Hype, Infrastructure, and a Two-Year Countdown3. Crypto’s TradFi Moment: Institutions Are In, but on Their Terms

The publication of Canada’s January Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Tuesday will be the focus of attention. Indeed, Statistics Canada data will provide the Bank of Canada (BoC) with a much-needed update on price pressures ahead of its March 18 meeting, where policymakers are widely expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%.

Economists see the headline CPI rising by 2.4% in a year to January, still above the BoC’s target and matching December’s increase. On a monthly basis, prices are expected to rise by 0.1%. The bank will also closely monitor its core measure (which strips food and energy costs), which held steady at 2.8% YoY in the last month of 2025.

Analysts remain uneasy after last month’s inflation pickup, and the risk of US tariffs feeding into domestic prices is adding another layer of uncertainty.

What Can We Expect From Canada’s Inflation Rate?

At its latest meeting, the central bank made it clear that policy is broadly where it needs to be to keep inflation close to the 2% target, assuming the economy evolves as expected. That said, officials were equally keen to stress that they are not on autopilot. If the outlook weakens or inflation risks resurface, they stand ready to adjust.

Indeed, on inflation, the tone was cautiously reassuring. Headline inflation is expected to hover near target, with spare capacity in the economy helping to offset some of the cost pressures linked to trade reconfiguration. Still, underlying inflation remains somewhat elevated, a reminder that the disinflation process is not yet fully complete.

Inflation, therefore, remains the key variable to watch. A glance at the latest figures showed that the headline CPI edged up to 2.4% YoY in December, while core inflation eased to 2.8% YoY.

Additionally, the bank’s preferred gauges, CPI-Common, Trimmed Mean, and Median, also moderated, but at 2.8%, 2.7%, and 2.5%, respectively, they continued to run above the 2% objective.

Canada Inflation. Source: BoC When Is the Canada CPI Data Due, and How Could It Affect USD/CAD?

Markets will fully focus on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, when Statistics Canada publishes January’s inflation figures. There’s a sense of nervous anticipation, with traders wary that price pressures may prove more stubborn than hoped and keep the broader uptrend intact.

A hotter-than-expected print would likely reignite concerns that tariff-related costs are finally filtering through to consumers. That, in turn, could nudge the BoC towards a more cautious tone in the near term. It would also tend to lend the Canadian Dollar (CAD) some short-term support, as investors reassess a policy outlook that increasingly hinges on how trade tensions and their impact on inflation unfold.

Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, notes that the Canadian Dollar has surrendered some gains in the last few days, motivating USD/CAD to rebound modestly past the 1.3600 hurdle, all following its YTD floor just below the 1.3500 support reached in late January.

Piovano indicates that the resurgence of a bullish tone could prompt spot to confront the February top at 1.3724 (February 6), ahead of the provisional 55-day SMA around 1.3760. Further up comes the always relevant 200-day SMA near 1.3820, prior to the interim 100-day SMA near 1.3870 and the 2026 ceiling at 1.3928 (January 16).

On the flip side, Piovano points out that a key support lies at the 2026 bottom, at 1.3481 (January 30). The loss of this level could open the door to a visit to the September 2024 floor at 1.3418 (September 25).

“In addition, momentum indicators continue to lean bearish: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches the 45 mark, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 28 is indicative of quite a firm trend,” he says.

The Bitcoin vs. gold debate has heated up over the past few months as investors reassess inflation risks and the future direction of monetary policy. 

Yet according to one market strategist, the divide now extends beyond portfolio hedging. In his view, it reflects something far larger: a wager on the trajectory of the American economy itself.

Bitcoin vs Gold: Two Assets, Two Visions of America’s Path 

In a recent post, James E. Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington-Altus, framed the two assets as opposing bets on the trajectory of the US economy. 

“For the record. Bitcoin Is a Bet on Trump’s Success. Gold Is a Bet on America’s Failure,” Thorne wrote.

The strategist explained that gold, in his view, has become what he described as a “verdict.” Rather than simply protecting against inflation or volatility, he argued that rising demand for gold reflects a growing lack of confidence in “Trump’s economic revolution” and the ability of policymakers to reform an economy burdened by excessive debt.

According to Thorne, investors piling into gold are effectively betting that the US will continue down a path of monetary expansion, debt accumulation, and currency debasement. 

“It is the old guard’s confession that they see only one way out of excessive leverage: print, debase, and hope the music doesn’t stop,” he remarked. “Trump, Bessent, and Warsh argue there is another path: reform the Fed, end the subsidy to idle reserves, stop paying banks to sit on cash, and force capital out of sterile Treasury holdings and back into the productive economy where it belongs.”

By contrast, Thorne positioned Bitcoin as a “speculative flag of success.” He suggested that it is a digital bet that regulatory clarity for the crypto sector, including measures such as the proposed CLARITY Act, alongside broader policy shifts, would position the US as a global crypto hub.

In this “split-screen” vision of the future, gold signals doubt that America can grow its way out of mounting fiscal pressures, while Bitcoin reflects confidence that reform-driven growth can reduce the real burden of debt.

“If Trump’s program works, if growth, deregulation, and redirected capital start to shrink the real burden of debt instead of inflating it away, Wall Street will have to rediscover its purpose: generating credit for builders, not rent for bondholders. Then those who rushed into gold as a monument to decline will face a brutal reckoning: their ‘safe haven’ will stand as a shiny, inert tribute to one vast miscalculation — that America would fail just as its leaders chose to make it succeed,” Thorne mentioned.

Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Narrative Faces Scrutiny

The remarks come at a time when gold has surged amid macroeconomic uncertainty despite volatility. On the other hand, Bitcoin has experienced notable drawdowns, reigniting debate over its store-of-value narrative.

Trader Ran Neuner recently raised concerns over Bitcoin’s response amid periods of genuine market stress and uncertainty.

“For the first time in 12 years, I’m questioning Bitcoin’s thesis,” he said. “We fought for ETF approval. We fought for institutional access. We wanted it inside the system. Now it is. There is nothing to fight for anymore.”

Neuner argued that episodes marked by tariff disputes, currency tensions, and fiscal instability presented a real-world test for Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative. During those periods, however, investor flows appeared to favor gold over digital assets.

With exchange-traded funds approved and institutional channels widely available, access to Bitcoin is no longer a structural constraint. This removes a longstanding explanation for muted performance during stress events.

He also pointed to subdued retail engagement and weaker speculative momentum compared to prior cycles. While this does not imply a structural breakdown for Bitcoin, he suggested it raises questions about whether its investment thesis remains as clear-cut as it once appeared.

Bitcoin’s long-held narrative as a safe haven and digital gold is under scrutiny, as veteran analyst Ran Neuner, among others, questions the pioneer crypto’s future.

Experts outline why Bitcoin may no longer serve the role it once claimed, and why the broader crypto ecosystem could be on the brink of a new era.

Bitcoin’s Store-of-Value Thesis Faces Crisis as Crypto Evolves

Despite a weakening US Dollar and mounting global uncertainty, Bitcoin underperformed expectations as a hedge against fiat debasement.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell roughly 9% in 2025, and another 2% year-to-date in 2026, yet Bitcoin declined 20–22% YTD, trading for $68,255 as of this writing. Gold, by contrast, surged, proving resilient in risk-off scenarios.

“When tariffs, currency tension, and fiscal instability hit, this was the moment Bitcoin was supposed to behave like a store of value. Instead, capital ran to gold,” wrote analyst Ran Neuner.

Analysts, including Willy Woo and Henrik Zeberg, reinforce this view, highlighting that Bitcoin behaves as a high-beta, risk-on asset rather than a safe haven.

Bitcoin’s ideological allure appears to be fading. Retail participation has reached multi-year lows, and early evangelists have largely exited the market.

“We fought for ETF approval. We fought for institutional access. We wanted it inside the system. Now it is. There is nothing to fight for anymore…If it’s not used as cash, and it didn’t meaningfully absorb the stress bid, then what exactly is the narrative?” Neuner said, describing the post-ETF era as a turning point.

Institutional Access Achieved, But at a Cost

With 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs approved, corporate treasuries holding large allocations, and pro-crypto regulatory frameworks in place, Bitcoin has fully integrated into TradFi systems.

Michael Burry warned that this shift exposes companies holding BTC to significant value erosion if markets continue to correct:

“BTC has failed as a safe haven like gold and behaves more like a volatile stock tied to the S&P 500,” SwanDesk reported, citing Burry.

Crypto’s Next Phase: AI and Machine-Native Finance Amid Narrative Shift

Neuner sees the future not in Bitcoin’s store-of-value thesis, but in the emerging economy powered by AI agents.

Trillions of autonomous microtransactions will require instant, programmable settlement rails, a need that blockchain networks are uniquely positioned to serve.

“AI agents won’t use banks. They won’t use credit cards. They’ll need instant, programmable settlement rails. That’s crypto,” he said.

While Bitcoin struggles to retain its original purpose, broader crypto infrastructure could become the foundation for the next digital economy.

Analysts suggest that even if Bitcoin bled to death, decentralized networks, altcoins, and blockchain-based solutions may capture real utility and revenue models in the AI-driven era.

Neuner’s assessment highlights a critical turning point for crypto. Bitcoin may no longer be the ideological engine it once was, but the industry’s potential extends far beyond a single token.

XRP is attempting to regain upward momentum after weeks of consolidation. Recent price action suggests a potential breakout from a bullish triangle pattern.

Market conditions remain critical for confirmation. While volatility persists across the broader cryptocurrency market, XRP’s structure indicates building pressure.

XRP Holders Support The Breakout

On-chain data shows steady support from long-term XRP holders. The HODLer Net Position Change metric currently reflects consistent accumulation. Green bars on the indicator signal capital inflows into long-term wallets.

This pattern suggests conviction among experienced investors. Long-term holders tend to accumulate during consolidation phases. Their support can stabilize the price during uncertainty. Sustained inflows strengthen the probability of a breakout by reducing available supply on exchanges.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

XRP HODLer Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

Another key indicator, the Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, provides further insight. SOPR measures whether investors are selling at a profit or a loss. A reading below 1.0 signals realized losses, while a reading above it reflects profitable selling.

XRP’s SOPR has climbed back above 1.0. This shift indicates investors are no longer capitulating at losses. Instead, they are transacting at profit levels. Improving profitability often restores confidence and encourages healthier capital rotation, which can support upward price movement.

XRP SOPR. Source: Glassnode XRP Price Levels To Watch

XRP is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. Technical analysis projects a potential 33% breakout if resistance levels are breached. For now, confirmation requires a sustained move above $1.70. Without this breakout, the price remains within the consolidation boundaries.

A move past $1.58 would signal early breakout momentum. Strong investor support could then help XRP flip $1.70 into a new support level. If sustained buying pressure continues, the altcoin may advance beyond $1.80, reinforcing bullish technical structure.

XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, resistance remains a concern. The CBD Heatmap indicates notable supply concentration between $1.76 and $1.78. Many investors accumulated XRP in this range. As price revisits these levels, some may sell to offset losses, potentially limiting upward momentum.

XRP CBD Heatmap. Source: Glassnode

If bullish momentum fails entirely, downside risk increases. A rejection could push XRP below the $1.47 support level. Such a move may lead to renewed consolidation above $1.37, similar to patterns observed in early February. This scenario would invalidate the near-term bullish thesis.

The market is increasingly turning against the US dollar, with short positions at their highest level since January 2012, according to Bank of America’s foreign exchange and rates sentiment survey.

This shift in sentiment comes as the US Dollar Index, which tracks the value of the greenback against a weighted basket of six major currencies, has declined 1.3% year to date.

Record Bearish Positioning Reflects Deep Skepticism About the Dollar 

The latest Bank of America survey finds dollar positioning in February reached its most negative level in more than 14 years. Moreover, overall dollar exposure has fallen below the lows of April 2025, signaling continued loss of confidence among fund managers.

Despite efforts to restore confidence in the Federal Reserve, skepticism remains. President Trump’s January 2026 nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair aimed to reassure investors in US monetary policy. Nevertheless, this move has not lifted dollar demand.

“Survey respondents see further signs of US labor market weakness as the main risk for a lower dollar,” WSJ reported.

Meanwhile, the bearish sentiment comes amid a substantial slide in the US Dollar Index. In 2025, the index fell 9.4%, with declines continuing this year.

On January 27, DXY fell to 95.5, its lowest level since February 2022. At the time of writing, DXY recovered to reach 97.08.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Performance. Source: TradingView DXY at Crossroads as Traders Debate Breakdown Versus Bottom 

Market analysts are increasingly pointing to technical signals that point to further downside for the US dollar. Trader Donny forecasted that the index could decline below the 96 level.

“I’m seeing another bearish leg forming on the DXY,” he wrote.

Other analysts are looking even further out. The Long Investor highlighted longer-term charts that, in his view, outline a much deeper structural decline. He suggested that bearish targets could extend into the 52–60 range over the 2030s.

However, some analysts see potential for a dollar rebound. The Macro Pulse stated recent behavior suggests the index may be entering a “potential bottoming process.” 

“My base case is a recovery toward 103–104 by July 2026,” the post read.

Implications for Cryptocurrency Markets

A weaker US dollar typically creates more supportive conditions for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. When the dollar declines, investors may rotate into alternative assets in search of higher returns or protection against the depreciation of fiat currencies. 

Bitcoin, in particular, is frequently positioned as a hedge against monetary debasement. This can strengthen its appeal during periods of sustained dollar weakness.

Still, the connection between dollar weakness and crypto gains is not always straightforward. Broader macroeconomic conditions remain critical. 

If a softer dollar reflects slowing US growth or rising recession risks, investors may adopt a defensive stance. In such an environment, capital could flow into traditional safe havens such as gold rather than into more volatile digital assets.

Recent positioning data supports that caution. Bullish bets on gold have increased, signaling that many investors remain optimistic about the metal’s prospects.

As the dollar slips and fund managers maintain historically bearish positions, the coming months will test whether crypto markets can capitalize on shifting currency dynamics, or whether persistent macro uncertainty will continue to temper upside momentum in digital assets.

The XMR price climbed nearly 10% on Tuesday following the release of a new report by TRM Labs highlighting Monero’s resilience and growing adoption in privacy-focused markets despite delistings from major exchanges.

The research sheds light on the increasing use of Monero in high-risk environments, including darknet marketplaces, while also revealing subtle network-layer behaviors that could influence real-world privacy assumptions.

Monero’s Shadow Market Growth and Network Insights Drive XMR Price Surge

As of this writing, XMR was trading for $335.66, up by nearly 10% in the last 24 hours.

Monero (XMR) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

According to TRM Labs, Monero’s on-chain transaction activity remained broadly stable in 2024–2025 and consistently higher than pre-2022 levels.

This trend persisted despite restrictions from leading platforms such as Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and Huobi, which have increasingly limited access to XMR due to regulatory and traceability concerns.

“Despite exchange delistings and enforcement pressure, XMR activity on Monero remains above pre-2022 levels,” TRM Labs noted.

According to the firm’s research:

48% of new darknet markets in 2025 were XMR-only.

Most ransomware payments still occur in BTC — liquidity matters.

14–15% of Monero peers show non-standard network behavior.

Monero’s cryptography remains strong, but network-layer dynamics can influence real-world privacy assumptions.

The report emphasizes that Monero’s resilience is not primarily driven by casual retail trading. Instead, it reflects a core user base that actively seeks privacy-preserving transactions, even when faced with higher friction, fewer on-ramps, and reduced liquidity.

Transaction volumes in 2024 and 2025 were materially higher than in early 2020–2021, indicating sustained demand rather than sporadic, speculative spikes.

Monero Transaction Volumes Between 2020 and 2025. Source: TRM Labs

This stability is particularly notable given that, according to some reports, 73 exchanges delisted Monero in 2025 alone.

As a result, liquidity for XMR is increasingly concentrated on offshore or lower-compliance venues, which partially explains why most ransomware payments still occur in Bitcoin.

While actors frequently request Monero for its privacy features, Bitcoin remains easier to acquire, move, and convert at scale.

Monero Adoption on the Rise Among Darknet Markets

Meanwhile, the report also acknowledges that Monero’s adoption in darknet markets continues to grow.

TRM Labs data shows that 48% of newly launched darknet marketplaces in 2025 now support XMR exclusively, a sharp increase compared to previous years.

Share of Darknet Markets that Are Monero Only. Source: TRM Labs Report

This trend is especially pronounced in Western-facing markets, reflecting a direct response to enhanced tracing capabilities on Bitcoin and US dollar-backed stablecoins.

It aligns with a recent BeInCrypto report, which cited the increasing use of XMR in illegal activities.

Human Trafficking Service Inflows by Asset Type. Source: Chainalysis Network-Layer Insights With Privacy in Practice

Beyond market behavior, TRM Labs conducted empirical research into Monero’s peer-to-peer (P2P) network. The analysis found that 14–15% of reachable Monero peers displayed non-standard behavior, including:

Irregular message timing

Handshake patterns, and

Infrastructure concentration.

While these anomalies do not indicate protocol failures or malicious activity, they highlight how network-layer dynamics can subtly affect theoretical anonymity models, even as Monero’s on-chain cryptography remains strong.

Monero occupies a unique position in the crypto ecosystem. While transparent networks and stablecoins have become increasingly traceable and regulated, Monero continues to offer privacy-preserving functionality that appeals to users operating in high-risk or privacy-conscious environments.

TRM Labs’ findings highlight both the strengths and nuances of Monero’s privacy design. It shows that real-world usage patterns and network behavior can affect the practical efficacy of anonymity protections.