bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is starting a new day following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, where the committee left the rates unchanged. This chart shows that statistically the Fed meetings have been incredibly bearish for the market.
More specifically, 9 out of the last 10 meetings delivered strong declines. Measuring from tops a little before or straight after the Fed days, the 'weakest' decline has been -5.85% and the strongest -33.08%. What's striking is that the corrections have been evenly spread between both the Bear and Bull Cycle. In fact the Bull Cycle had the 2nd strongest decline of -27.99% as well as the 3rd (-16.21%).
As a result, it is highly likely to see another strong decline (market has been actually falling since Monday), which may be a continuation of the Bear Cycle to its next and final Phase.
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TL;DR
• Core Development: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, but the decision saw record dissent (4 votes) and a warning of rising inflation (3.5% PCE forecast) .
• Market Reaction: Global equity markets retreated as oil prices hit a four year high of $126/barrel before paring gains; Bitcoin dropped below $76,000 amid Fed uncertainty.
• What to Monitor Next: Bank of England and ECB policy decisions following the Fed's hawkish pause, and further developments in the U.S.-Iran military deadlock .

TOP 3 VERIFIED NEWS
1 Divided Fed Decision: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in Jerome Powell's final meeting as Chair. However, the decision was marked by the deepest internal division in over three decades, with four dissenting votes, signaling potential shifts in future monetary policy .
◦ Why it matters: A divided Fed indicates significant internal debate regarding the economic outlook and appropriate policy response, which can increase market uncertainty and volatility.
◦ Source : Bloomberg Fed Dissenters Send a Clear Signal to Bond Investors
◦ Direct Quote: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but the decision was the most highly divisive in decades.

2 Oil Price Surge: Global oil prices hit a four-year high of over $126 per barrel on reports that the U.S. is mulling military options in response to the Iran blockade. This surge highlights the extreme sensitivity of energy markets to geopolitical tensions .
◦ Why it matters: Elevated oil prices can fuel inflation, increase production costs for businesses, and reduce consumer purchasing power, potentially leading to broader economic slowdowns.
◦ Source : Reuters Global oil price retreats after hitting 4-year high on concern
◦ Direct Quote: Global oil prices retreated after hitting a four year high of more than $126 a barrel on Thursday.

3 Stagflation Risks: Financial markets are increasingly pricing in stagflation risks as the Iran conflict enters its third month. The combination of slowing economic growth and persistent inflation, driven by rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions, presents a challenging outlook .
◦ Why it matters: Stagflation is a particularly difficult economic scenario for policymakers, as traditional tools to combat inflation (e.g., raising interest rates) can worsen economic stagnation, and vice versa.
◦ Source : Reuters Stagflation risks stacking up as Iran war enters third month
◦ Direct Quote: Stagflation risks stacking up as Iran war enters third month.

MACRO DRIVERS
• Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve maintained its target rate at 3.5%-3.75% after its third consecutive pause in 2026. Despite the hold, Chairman Powell signaled a potential shift toward a less accommodative stance in future meetings, indicating ongoing vigilance against inflation .
• Inflation: The Fed projected March PCE inflation at approximately 3.5%, citing energy price spikes tied to Middle East tensions as a primary driver. This forecast underscores the persistent inflationary pressures facing the global economy.
• Commodities: Oil (Brent) hit $126 per barrel before paring gains, reflecting extreme volatility. Concurrently, the Japanese Yen surged 2% as officials issued strong intervention warnings, highlighting broader currency market instability amidst global uncertainty .

MARKET MOVERS

»» AI +38% Strong demand for AI related tokens
»» BIO +35% Positive sentiment around biotech crypto integration
»» CGPT +11% Continued interest in AI driven utility projects
»» XAUT +1.23% Flight to safe haven assets amid market uncertainty
»» TRX +0.62% Steady network activity and ecosystem growth

»» Space (SPC) -93% Significant post IPO collapse and market correction
»» ETH -2.59% Broader marke wide correction and risk-off sentiment
»» BTC -1.89% Pressure from Fed uncertainty and geopolitical risks
»» SOL -1.59% General market correction and profit taking
»» XRP -1.40% Reflecting overall bearish sentiment in altcoins

Note: Comprehensive real-time data for top 5 stock gainers and losers from approved sources was not fully available at the time of reporting. Global equity markets generally retreated following the Fed decision and oil price surge.

CHART SNAPSHOT
Trading Pair: BTC/USDT
Timeframe: 24h Simplified
Technical Insight: Bitcoin has dropped below the $76,000 psychological support level, currently trading near $75,994. This downward movement follows a "hawkish pause" from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical risks, indicating increased bearish pressure . Technical Term Explained: A Hawkish Pause describes a central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, but simultaneously signal that future interest rate hikes remain likely or that monetary policy will remain restrictive. This stance aims to manage inflation expectations without immediately tightening financial conditions further.

EDUCATIONAL NOTE
Stagflation: Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by slow economic growth, relatively high unemployment (economic stagnation), and rising prices (inflation). This combination is particularly challenging for economic policymakers because actions typically used to combat inflation (e.g., raising interest rates) can worsen stagnation, while measures to stimulate growth (e.g., lowering interest rates) can exacerbate inflation. The current global environment, with persistent supply chain issues and energy price volatility, has reignited concerns about potential stagflation.

🔴Not financial advice for educational purposes only.

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