BlockVibe

🚨THIS IS WHEN CRYPTO MARKET WILL BOTTOM
Right now most people think Bitcoin already bottomed at $60K.
And they are wrong.
That was likely just a local bottom, not the final cycle low.
Let’s break down what actually needs to happen before the real bottom forms.
LIQUIDITY: THE BIGGEST DRIVER
Every major crypto bottom in history has happened when U.S. liquidity starts expanding again. Right now the opposite is happening.
YoY liquidity growth in the U.S. is still negative. That means money is being drained out of the system, not added.
When liquidity is falling:
Crypto sells off first.
Stocks sell off too.
Risk assets stay weak.
We are seeing exactly that right now.
The liquidity being provided by the Fed is simply not enough compared to what markets need to turn bullish again.
This is also why:
- Corporate bankruptcies are rising.
- Consumers are defaulting on debt.
- Economic stress is building.
Until liquidity turns positive, a full market bottom is very unlikely.
MAYER MULTIPLE: NOT AT BOTTOM LEVELS YET
The Mayer Multiple shows whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold compared to its long-term average. At previous cycle bottoms, this metric dropped below 0.6 every time. Right now it is around 0.67.
That means: the market is oversold… but not at historical bottom extremes. So again, more like a temporary bottom, not the final one.
LONG TERM HOLDER REALIZED PRICE
This is one of the most reliable bottom indicators. It shows the average price where long term holders bought their Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin cycle bottoms form very close to this level. Right now this sits around $41K, and BTC is nowhere near it.
That gives us a very important clue:
The real bottom zone is likely somewhere near a long term holder cost basis.
MINING ELECTRICAL COST
Mining cost acts like a bear market floor. Currently, electrical production cost is around $57.5K.
But during bear phases, this cost usually drops 15–20%.
If that happens again:
Electrical cost falls to roughly $45K–$46K.
When multiple bottom indicators converge in the same zone, that zone becomes extremely important.
TECHNICAL + INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND ZONE
From a pure market structure perspective, the biggest demand area this cycle has been $45K to $50K.
Why this zone matters:
- ETFs were approved here.
- August 2024 crash bottom formed here.
- Institutions accumulated heavily here.
- Whale buying was strongest here.
This is the price range large players are most likely to defend.
THIS CYCLE IS NOT PLAYING OUT NORMALLY
There are major structural differences vs. past 4-year cycles: Bitcoin made a new ATH before the halving (never happened before).
Post-halving Q4, usually bullish, was negative this time.
Bitcoin started dropping earlier than expected. Many altcoins topped before Bitcoin’s ATH.
This tells us one thing:
This cycle is front-running expectations. So the bottom timing may also come earlier than people expect.
SO WHEN COULD THE BOTTOM FORM?
Most people are waiting for a classic Q4 bottom. But based on the current structure, the bottom could form earlier. Estimated window → August to September
Markets tend to front-run consensus timelines. So both price and time could bottom sooner than the majority expects.
PSYCHOLOGY AT THE BOTTOM
If Bitcoin enters $45K–$48K, you’ll start hearing calls for $30K, $25K, and even $20K.
Just like in November 2022: When BTC hit $16K, people called for $10K... $8K... $5K.
None of those levels ever came. Markets trap both sides.
So here’s the full picture:
Liquidity hasn’t turned positive yet. Onchain bottom signals aren’t fully hit. Mining cost floor sits lower. Institutional demand sits lower. Cycle structure is front-running.
This means:
The $60K move was likely just a local bottom.
The real cycle bottom is more likely below the $50K zone, possibly forming late summer to early fall, when liquidity conditions finally improve.
That’s the window where the market will fully reset before the next major expansion phase.

#TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned #USNFPBlowout #MarketRebound #OpenClawFounderJoinsOpenAI #TradeCryptosOnX

🐸 PEPE Market Report: The Frog Leaps as Volume Explodes 283% 📈
The meme coin sector is witnessing a massive capital rotation, and PEPE is leading the charge! 🚀 With a 19% price surge and a staggering 283% spike in trading volume, PEPE is rapidly approaching a $2 Billion market cap. 💰
📊 The Data Breakdown
Current Price: $0.00000469 🟢 (+19.07% in 24h)
7-Day Performance: +23.28% 📈
Market Dominance: 0.083% 🌍
Trading Volume: $1.22B (Up 259%) 🔥
Despite being 19.5% below its 30-day high, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 13 (Extreme Fear). 😨 Historically, for "Smart Money," extreme fear zones represent prime accumulation windows before a trend reversal! 💎🙌
📉 Technical Indicators & Strategy
The technical setup suggests a shift from bearish to neutral-bullish momentum:
Support/Resistance: Strong support has been established at $0.0000036 🛡️, with immediate overhead resistance at $0.0000050. A breakout here opens the doors to $0.0000068. 🎯
Momentum: The MACD is indicating strengthening bullish momentum, while the RSI shows a bullish divergence. 📊
Strategy: Conservative traders are eyeing entries in the $0.0000043–$0.0000045 range, with a strict stop-loss below the $0.0000036 support. 🛑
🐋 Whale Activity and Sentiment
The rally is backed by significant "Smart Money" flow:
Massive Accumulation: On-chain data reveals that top-tier wallets have scooped up 23.02 Trillion PEPE tokens over the last four months! 🐳💎
Buyer Dominance: Top traders show a 6:2 up/down signal ratio, with a net buy volume of $1.35M in the latest hour. 💹
Social Surge: Social sentiment is peaking with over 4,200 post mentions, fueled by speculation regarding a potential "zero removal" (supply reduction) strategy. 0️⃣🔥
⚖️ The Verdict
While high volume confirms strong market participation, the "Extreme Fear" backdrop suggests that while the upside potential is high, traders should remain cautious of sharp, high-volatility reversals. 🎢

#PEPEBrokeThroughDowntrendLine $PEPE

🇳🇱 The Netherlands has announced a 36% tax on UNREALIZED Capital gains.

The rule applies to stocks, ETFs, savings, and crypto. Each year, the government looks at how much your portfolio value increased and taxes that gain at 36%.

Here’s how it works:

If someone invests €100K and by year end the portfolio rises to €140K, they owe tax on the €40K profit even if they didn’t sell anything or take cash out.

After the €1,800 tax free threshold, the taxable gain becomes €38,200. At 36%, that equals €13,752 in tax paid, even though no cash was taken out of the market.

Now imagine the next year markets crash and the same portfolio drops to €60K.

The investor has already paid tax on Year 1 gains but the portfolio is now €40K below the original €100K investment.

No tax is paid in Year 2 because the portfolio fell.

But a €80K loss carry forward is created (from €140K down to €60K). Now extend this one more year:

If the portfolio rises from €60K to €110K, the investor’s portfolio is now above the original €100K investment on paper.

But because there is still €30K of unused carry forward losses left, no tax is paid in Year 3.

3-year outcome:

Original investment: €100K
Year 1 tax paid: €13,752
Year 2 tax paid: €0
Year 3 tax paid: €0

Total taxes paid: €13,752
Portfolio value: €110K

Real net capital after taxes: €96,248

So even though the portfolio shows a €10K profit on paper, the investor is still below the original €100K after taxes already paid earlier.

This creates forced selling risk because investors may need to liquidate assets just to pay taxes on paper gains.

And history shows aggressive capital taxes often trigger capital flight, France saw €200B leave before scrapping its wealth tax, Sweden and Denmark abolished similar systems, and Norway is already seeing wealthy residents relocate after recent tax hikes.

Now the Netherlands is attempting one of the most aggressive unrealized gain tax systems globally.

Few points.

Losses can be carried forward to offset future gains, but no refunds are issued on prior years’ unrealized gains.

It still requires Senate approval before becoming law.If approved by the Senate, the law is scheduled to take effect January 1, 2028

#PEPEBrokeThroughDowntrendLine #TradeCryptosOnX #USNFPBlowout

After 12+ months of downside, broken charts, and collapsing sentiment, the structure under the Altcoin market is starting to shift.
The Others Dominance chart which tracks how altcoins perform relative to Bitcoin is flashing early signs of recovery.
Here’s what’s happening right now:
Others dominance has already reclaimed the levels we saw before the October 10th crash.
But, Bitcoin is still trading roughly 42% below its highs from that same period.
So while BTC is still structurally weak, Altcoins are already stabilizing and gaining relative strength. This divergence usually signals seller exhaustion.
If alts were still in heavy distribution, dominance would keep falling.
But it isn’t.
Instead, it has risen 17% in just the last two months which means the forced selling phase in alts may already be behind us.
We saw a similar setup in 2019-2020.
When the Fed ended QE, Bitcoin continued correcting for months. But the Others dominance bottomed and never revisited those lows again, not even during the March 2020 crash.
That marked the start of a multi year alt uptrend. Now add more bullish signals on top:
• RSI on Others dominance has crossed above its moving average for the first time since July 2023, historically this crossover has preceded alt strength phases.
• Russell 2000 just broke its highs after a delayed cycle, small caps often lead liquidity rotation before altcoins move.
• ISM has climbed to 52, highest in 40 months. A move above 55 historically aligns with strong performance in high-beta assets like alts.
• Core inflation just printed a 5-year low which could increase the odds of more Fed easing.
• Gold and Silver rallies are cooling and often this leads to a rotation from hard assets to risk assets.
Structurally, the market is reset:
Most altcoins are still down 80–90%. Leverage has been flushed. Sentiment is near cycle lows. Positioning is extremely light.
Historically, mid-term election year has been bearish for the crypto market, so it's possible that we could see more sideways accumulation until Q3/Q4 before a reversal.

🚨 WARNING: A BIG STORM IS COMING!!!
Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates to 1.00% in April, according to Bank of America.
Japan hasn’t been at 1.00% since the mid 1990s.
And if you think Japan has no impact on global markets
YOU ARE COMPLETELY WRONG.
Let me explain this in simple words:
The last time Japan was in this zone, the world was already getting hit.
In 1994, bonds got wrecked in the “Great Bond Massacre” about $1.5 TRILLION in bond market value got wiped out.
Then in early 1995, stress kept stacking.
And the yen went NUCLEAR.
On April 19, 1995, USD/JPY hit about 79.75
a record low for the dollar.
Now here’s the part people forget.
Japan tried higher rates, then had to CUT again later that year
BOJ took the discount rate down to 0.50% in September 1995.
That one fact explains a lot.
Because when Japan tightens into a fragile setup, it doesn’t stay “local”.
Japan is the CHEAP MONEY hub.
And Japan is a GIANT global holder.
Japan owns about $1.2 TRILLION of U.S. Treasuries.
So if Japan tightens, the whole world feels it through funding and flows.
THIS IS A WARNING.
Not because “rates went up”.
Because the last time we were here, the system was already under stress
and it forced reactions fast.
Markets are not pricing it now.
But they will.
I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October $BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.

I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

🚨POWELL IS IN A BIG TROUBLE NOW.

Just now, US CPI and Core CPI data got released.

CPI came in at 2.4% vs. 2.5% expected, while Core CPI came in at 2.5% vs. 2.5% expected.

The US CPI is now at its lowest level since April 2025, right before when tariffs were imposed.

Core CPI is at its lowest level in almost 5 years, when the entire US economy was in lockdown.

This means, despite the Fed's claims of inflation heating up, it's trending lower.

Meanwhile, the other aspect of the US economy is breaking.

The labor market is getting worse.

Credit card delinquencies are rising.

Corporate bankruptcies are hitting 2008 crisis levels.

This is a clear sign that the Fed has committed a huge policy mistake.

The Fed has been hawkish for longer than expected, which is harming the US economy.

In 2020-21, they remained dovish longer than expected, which caused inflation to spike.

This time, the real risk is deflation, which is far worse than inflation.

With each passing day, it feels like Trump's comments around "Too Late Powell" are true.

#CZAMAonBinanceSquare #TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned #CPIWatch #USTechFundFlows #WhaleDeRiskETH

BREAKING: Unternehmensinsolvenzen und Verbraucherstress in den USA haben gerade Krisenniveaus erreicht, die schlimmsten seit 2008.
In den letzten 3 Wochen haben 18 große Unternehmen, jedes mit über 50 Millionen Dollar an Verbindlichkeiten, Insolvenz angemeldet. Allein letzte Woche sind 9 große US-Unternehmen pleitegegangen.
Das hat den 3-Wochen-Durchschnitt auf 6 gedrängt, das schnellste Tempo großer Insolvenzen seit der Pandemie 2020. Um das ins rechte Licht zu rücken, war der schlimmste Zeitraum dieses Jahrhunderts während der Finanzkrise 2009, als der 3-Wochen-Durchschnitt auf 9 anstieg.
Wir befinden uns also auf dem Höhepunkt der Krise.

GOLD IST IN DIESELBE ZONE EINGETRETEN, IN DER JEDER GROSSE BULLENLAUF HISTORISCH ENDETE.
Letzten Monat erreichte Gold gerade einen neuen Zyklus-Höchststand nahe $5.600 und liegt immer noch bei +427% in diesem 2016 → 2026 Lauf.
Jetzt herauszoomen, was dieses Diagramm wirklich zeigt:
1) Gold bewegt sich in jahrzehntelangen Superläufen
1970 → 1980: +2,403%
2001 → 2011: +655%
2016 → 2026: +427% (bisher)
Verschiedene Jahrzehnte. Dasselbe Muster: Gold tendiert nicht ewig nach oben. Es neigt dazu, 9-10 Jahre lang stark zu laufen, dann für Jahre und manchmal Jahrzehnte abzukühlen.
ABER WAS ENDET ÜBLICHERWEISE EINEN GOLD-SUPERLAUF?

🚨 WARNUNG: 100% BEWEIS WAS ALS NÄCHSTES FÜR SILBER KOMMT!!!
Ich habe 41 Stunden mit der Recherche verbracht, und die Zahlen sehen hervorragend aus.
Ich habe Metriken entdeckt, die zu stark sind, um ignoriert zu werden, und die Daten unterstützen alles, was ich sage.
Die Diskrepanz zwischen Papier und physischem Silber hat ein extremes Niveau erreicht.
Ich überwache den Geldfluss für das Kapitulationssignal, das schließlich den Unterdrückungsmechanismus durchbricht.
Hier sind die Daten über den versteckten Krieg zwischen Ost und West:
WARUM CHINA ES GÜNSTIG BRAUCHT
Die meisten Privatanleger gehen davon aus, dass China will, dass Silber zum Mond fliegt.

🚨 BESTÄTIGUNG DER US-BUNDESREGIERUNG FÜR EINEN STILLSTAND AM 14. FEBRUAR!
Das könnte der schlimmste Tag des Jahres 2026 für die Märkte sein.
Wenn Sie denken, es sei „nur Politik“, denken Sie an das, was während der vorherigen Stilllegung passiert ist:
→ Das BIP fiel um 2,8%
→ Billionen aus dem Aktienmarkt gelöscht
→ Krypto fiel an einem einzigen Tag um 16%
So verwandelt sich „Politik“ in einen vollständigen Marktzusammenbruch:
Politische Spannungen kochen über, und die Demokraten nutzen sie, um den DHS-Finanzierungsgesetzentwurf im Senat zu verlangsamen.
Ja, wieder.
Und das ist die ganze Geschichte.

🚨 PRÄSIDENT TRUMP 2026 MARKTPLAN ENTHÜLLT.

Viele Menschen erwarten, dass die Märkte 2026 stark anziehen werden, aber sie werden eine Zeit lang falsch liegen.

Das plant Trump für 2026:

TEIL 1: DER CRASH

Im Moment sieht die US-Wirtschaft bereits schwach aus:

Entlassungen steigen.
Insolvenzen nehmen zu.
Kreditausfälle nehmen zu.
Die Nachfrage nach Wohnraum bricht zusammen.
Hausverkäufer übertreffen Käufer bei weitem.

Aufgrund dessen besteht eine anständige Chance auf eine Korrektur des Aktienmarktes in den nächsten 2-3 Monaten, ähnlich wie im Q1 2025.

DER US-ARBEITSMARKT SIGNALISIERT GROßE REZESSIONSANZEICHEN.

Die Arbeitsnachfrage ist jetzt schwächer als die während der Rezession von 2001 beobachteten Werte.

Die US-Jobangebote sind auf 6,5 Millionen gesunken, was einem Rückgang von 386.000 allein im Dezember entspricht, dem niedrigsten Stand seit September 2020, während die Angebote in den letzten 2 Monaten um 907.000 eingebrochen sind.

Von dem Höhepunkt im März 2022 sind die Jobangebote um 5,6 Millionen gesunken, was zeigt, wie schnell die Arbeitsnachfrage nachgelassen hat.

Die Stellenangebote liegen jetzt unter den vorpandemischen Niveaus aus 2018–2019.

Dies ist kein guter Arbeitsmarkt mehr. Er schwächt sich schnell ab. Das Verhältnis von offenen Stellen zu arbeitslosen Personen ist auf 0,87 gefallen. Das bedeutet, dass es weniger als 1 Job pro arbeitslosem Arbeitnehmer gibt.

#bitcoin Könnte Nach 12-Monats-RSI-Durchbruch Den Tiefpunkt Erreicht Haben
Bitcoin scheint eine einjährige Korrektur nach einem signifikanten monatlichen RSI-Durchbruch abgeschlossen zu haben, wobei die Marktstruktur nun auf einen potenziellen bullischen Zug hindeutet.
⬤ Bitcoin sieht so aus, als würde es endlich stabilisieren, nachdem es etwa 12 Monate im Rückzugmodus verbracht hat. Die Kryptowährung könnte den Tiefpunkt erreicht haben, nachdem sie ihre monatliche RSI-Struktur durchbrochen hat – ein Muster, das historisch das Ende von langfristigen Korrekturphasen signalisiert.
⬤ Der monatliche RSI ist ein makroökonomischer Momentum-Indikator, den Krypto-Händler während wichtiger Bitcoin-Zyklen genau beobachten. Im vergangenen Jahr blieb $BTC im Rückzugsgebiet stecken, während sein langfristiger Momentum weiterhin schwächer wurde. Jetzt, da der RSI gebrochen ist, deutet dies darauf hin, dass der Korrekturdruck, der seit Monaten auf dem Markt lastet, möglicherweise vollständig erschöpft ist. Dies könnte einen echten Wendepunkt markieren, wie sich der Markt in Zukunft verhält.

🚨 IST KEVIN WARSH IM ANMARSCH, DIE MÄRKTE MIT LIQUIDITÄT ZU ÜBERSCHÜTTEN ODER EINEN RISIKO IM ANLEIHENMARKT AUSZULÖSEN?
Kürzlich hat der kommende Fed-Vorsitzende Kevin Warsh einen neuen FED TREASURY ACCORD gefordert, im Grunde ein Rahmenwerk, das entscheiden würde, wie die Fed und das US-Finanzministerium zusammenarbeiten bei Schulden, Geldschöpfung und Zinssätzen.
Es geht dabei nicht nur um Zinssenkungen.
Ja, die Märkte erwarten, dass Warsh im Laufe der Zeit Zinssenkungen unterstützen wird, was möglicherweise die Zinsen in den Bereich von 2,75 %–3,0 % senken könnte.
Aber die größere Geschichte ist, was hinter den Kulissen passiert.