ALT/BTC has just printed its 4th green consecutive MACD green bar for the first time since August 2020
The last time this happened Altcoins pumped 60% against Bitcoin in the next three months.
What makes this more interesting ?
After the 2022 bear market ALT/BTC has been mostly red and oversold for nearly four years. That is why it has felt like alts never truly recovered even when Bitcoin was making new highs. They were not recovering. Not really. Bitcoin was running alone.
But three things are aligning right now that were not present before.
1) the MACD signal.
Four green bars. First time since 2020.
2) the ISM Manufacturing
ISM PMI has now printed above 52 for three consecutive months since October 2022. Context matters here. ISM above 55 was the fuel behind the 2017 and 2021 alt seasons. That level has been completely absent for the last 3.6 years. We are not there yet but the direction is right.
3) US CPI is at a five year low.
That is the most bullish macro backdrop for risk assets including alts in years.
This is not a full alt season call. Those require ISM above 55, broad liquidity expansion and sustained BTC dominance decline all at once.
But a meaningful alt recovery over the next two to three months is possible.
For all this to happen, BTC needs to break $76,000 and ETH needs to follow it towards $2,800 to $3,200 range.
Let’s hope Trump ends this war and there is no further escalation.