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Nicolas de Luusc

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4.3 Jahre
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📅 Key US Economic & Fed Events (ET) — Week Ahead This week is packed with macro catalysts, with the FOMC decision as the main event. Monday (Jan 26) 🕣 8:30 AM – Durable Goods Orders (Nov, delayed) Expected +4.5% rebound after prior weakness. Key insight into manufacturing momentum (watch ex-transportation). Tuesday (Jan 27) 🕙 10:00 AM – Consumer Confidence (Jan) Forecast around 90.0, a key gauge of consumer sentiment. Wednesday (Jan 28) — The Big Day 🕑 2:00 PM – FOMC Interest Rate Decision 🕝 2:30 PM – Powell Press Conference Markets are focused on signals around rate cuts, inflation outlook, and policy risks. Thursday (Jan 29) 🕣 8:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims (est. ~209k) 🕣 Trade Balance (Nov, delayed) 🕣 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q3 revised) 🕙 Factory Orders & Wholesale Inventories (delayed) Friday (Jan 30) 🕣 8:30 AM – PPI (Dec) Core & YoY PPI are critical for inflation expectations. 🕤 9:45 AM – Chicago PMI (Jan) 🎤 Fed speakers: Musalem (1:30 PM) & Vice Chair Bowman (5:00 PM)$BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)
📅 Key US Economic & Fed Events (ET) — Week Ahead

This week is packed with macro catalysts, with the FOMC decision as the main event.

Monday (Jan 26)

🕣 8:30 AM – Durable Goods Orders (Nov, delayed)

Expected +4.5% rebound after prior weakness.

Key insight into manufacturing momentum (watch ex-transportation).

Tuesday (Jan 27)

🕙 10:00 AM – Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Forecast around 90.0, a key gauge of consumer sentiment.

Wednesday (Jan 28) — The Big Day

🕑 2:00 PM – FOMC Interest Rate Decision

🕝 2:30 PM – Powell Press Conference

Markets are focused on signals around rate cuts, inflation outlook, and policy risks.

Thursday (Jan 29)

🕣 8:30 AM – Initial Jobless Claims (est. ~209k)

🕣 Trade Balance (Nov, delayed)

🕣 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q3 revised)

🕙 Factory Orders & Wholesale Inventories (delayed)

Friday (Jan 30)

🕣 8:30 AM – PPI (Dec)

Core & YoY PPI are critical for inflation expectations.

🕤 9:45 AM – Chicago PMI (Jan)

🎤 Fed speakers: Musalem (1:30 PM) & Vice Chair Bowman (5:00 PM)$BTC
Silver ETF Volume Just Went ParabolicThe silver#TokenizedSilverSurge $ market just printed a historic signal. The world’s largest silver ETF, $SLV, recorded $40B in single-day trading volume — the highest ever, not only for silver but across all assets. That’s: 15× its average daily volume3× the previous peak during the 2011 silver bull market For comparison: $SPY: ~$25B$QQQ: ~$17B$NVDA / $TSLA: ~$16B each Even leveraged bets are surging, with $AGQ (2× silver ETF) seeing $8B in one day. This isn’t a normal rally. It’s an extreme positioning event — volatility risk is rising fast. {future}(XAGUSDT)

Silver ETF Volume Just Went Parabolic

The silver#TokenizedSilverSurge $ market just printed a historic signal.
The world’s largest silver ETF, $SLV, recorded $40B in single-day trading volume — the highest ever, not only for silver but across all assets.
That’s:
15× its average daily volume3× the previous peak during the 2011 silver bull market
For comparison:
$SPY: ~$25B$QQQ: ~$17B$NVDA / $TSLA: ~$16B each
Even leveraged bets are surging, with $AGQ (2× silver ETF) seeing $8B in one day.
This isn’t a normal rally.
It’s an extreme positioning event — volatility risk is rising fast.
Để đánh giá chính xác hơn chênh lệch thực sự giữa giá Bạc giao ngay trên Sàn giao dịch vàng Thượng Hải và London, cần phải điều chỉnh theo thuế VAT 13% của Trung Quốc, áp dụng cho việc giao hàng vật chất. Sau khi loại bỏ thành phần thuế này, mức chênh lệch giá giữa SGE và London đã đạt đỉnh điểm vào hôm qua ở mức hơn 5% trước khi giảm xuống khoảng 1% vào hôm nay. Bản thân thuế VAT không phải là mới ( mức thuế 13% hiện tại đã được áp dụng từ năm 2019 ) nhưng vì nó tỷ lệ thuận với giá cả, nên nó đã vô tình làm tăng chênh lệch giá giữa Thượng Hải và London khi giá Bạc tăng vọt lên mức cao hơn nhiều.
Để đánh giá chính xác hơn chênh lệch thực sự giữa giá Bạc giao ngay trên Sàn giao dịch vàng Thượng Hải và London, cần phải điều chỉnh theo thuế VAT 13% của Trung Quốc, áp dụng cho việc giao hàng vật chất.

Sau khi loại bỏ thành phần thuế này, mức chênh lệch giá giữa SGE và London đã đạt đỉnh điểm vào hôm qua ở mức hơn 5% trước khi giảm xuống khoảng 1% vào hôm nay.

Bản thân thuế VAT không phải là mới ( mức thuế 13% hiện tại đã được áp dụng từ năm 2019 ) nhưng vì nó tỷ lệ thuận với giá cả, nên nó đã vô tình làm tăng chênh lệch giá giữa Thượng Hải và London khi giá Bạc tăng vọt lên mức cao hơn nhiều.
Trump Expands Global Tariff Threats — Trade Warfare EscalatesBeyond South Korea, President Donald Trump is broadening his tariff strategy as leverage in global trade: He’s warned that the U.S. could hit Canada with 100% tariffs if Ottawa signs a trade deal with China, arguing such a deal would let Beijing “evade U.S. tariffs” and harm Canadian sovereignty. Trump’s administration has also used emergency tariffs targeting countries that import Venezuelan oil, effectively pulling others into U.S. trade pressure. These threats are part of a broader pattern of aggressive trade measures aimed at pressuring allies and rivals alike. China, for its part, has been quiet publicly, likely watching to see if these tariff threats are actually enforced before escalating retaliations. What This Means for Markets & Crypto Macro volatility is rising. Broader trade pressure increases uncertainty in global supply chains and capital flows, which tends to: 🔹 Spike risk-off moves in equities and FX 🔹 Weaken risk appetite short-term 🔹 Potentially support BTC as a macro hedge if geopolitical risk intensifies But heightened tariff fears can also trigger sharp swings and liquidity rotation — meaning crypto may chop before trending.

Trump Expands Global Tariff Threats — Trade Warfare Escalates

Beyond South Korea, President Donald Trump is broadening his tariff strategy as leverage in global trade:
He’s warned that the U.S. could hit Canada with 100% tariffs if Ottawa signs a trade deal with China, arguing such a deal would let Beijing “evade U.S. tariffs” and harm Canadian sovereignty.
Trump’s administration has also used emergency tariffs targeting countries that import Venezuelan oil, effectively pulling others into U.S. trade pressure.
These threats are part of a broader pattern of aggressive trade measures aimed at pressuring allies and rivals alike.
China, for its part, has been quiet publicly, likely watching to see if these tariff threats are actually enforced before escalating retaliations.
What This Means for Markets & Crypto
Macro volatility is rising.

Broader trade pressure increases uncertainty in global supply chains and capital flows, which tends to:
🔹 Spike risk-off moves in equities and FX

🔹 Weaken risk appetite short-term

🔹 Potentially support BTC as a macro hedge if geopolitical risk intensifies

But heightened tariff fears can also trigger sharp swings and liquidity rotation — meaning crypto may chop before trending.
Trump Threatens 25% Tariffs on South Korea — Macro Risk ReturnsPresident Donald Trump has warned the U.S. could impose tariffs of up to 25% on South Korean goods, citing delays in implementing last year’s trade agreement. The threat revives trade tension risk between key allies — and markets are paying attention. 📉 What This Means for Crypto Rising trade tensions tend to boost volatility across risk assets Short term: crypto may see risk-off reactions if markets turn defensive Medium term: persistent trade frictions can pressure the USD narrative and support BTC as a macro hedge Trade wars don’t kill crypto — they reshape liquidity and risk appetite.

Trump Threatens 25% Tariffs on South Korea — Macro Risk Returns

President Donald Trump has warned the U.S. could impose tariffs of up to 25% on South Korean goods, citing delays in implementing last year’s trade agreement.
The threat revives trade tension risk between key allies — and markets are paying attention.
📉 What This Means for Crypto
Rising trade tensions tend to boost volatility across risk assets
Short term: crypto may see risk-off reactions if markets turn defensive
Medium term: persistent trade frictions can pressure the USD narrative and support BTC as a macro hedge
Trade wars don’t kill crypto — they reshape liquidity and risk appetite.
BlackRock Files Bitcoin Income ETF as Institutions Shift StrategyBlackRock Files Bitcoin Income ETF — Institutions Are Evolving BlackRock has filed for a Bitcoin Income ETF, signaling a clear shift in institutional strategy: from pure price exposure to yield-generating crypto products. The ETF aims to combine BTC exposure with option income, allowing investors to earn returns even in sideways markets. This could open the door for more conservative institutional capital to enter crypto. At the same time, the US Dollar Index is at a 4-month low, easing macro pressure on risk assets. 📌 Bottom line: If approved, income-focused BTC products could create structural demand, not just speculative inflows — potentially supporting the next leg of a BTC rally.

BlackRock Files Bitcoin Income ETF as Institutions Shift Strategy

BlackRock Files Bitcoin Income ETF — Institutions Are Evolving
BlackRock has filed for a Bitcoin Income ETF, signaling a clear shift in institutional strategy: from pure price exposure to yield-generating crypto products.
The ETF aims to combine BTC exposure with option income, allowing investors to earn returns even in sideways markets. This could open the door for more conservative institutional capital to enter crypto.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index is at a 4-month low, easing macro pressure on risk assets.
📌 Bottom line:

If approved, income-focused BTC products could create structural demand, not just speculative inflows — potentially supporting the next leg of a BTC rally.
US-StillstandWarum ein US-Stillstand ein größeres Marktrisiko darstellt, als es scheint Das größte Risiko eines möglichen Regierungsstillstands sind nicht die politischen Aspekte — es ist das Fehlen von Daten. Ein langanhaltender Haushaltsstreit könnte wichtige wirtschaftliche Veröffentlichungen stören oder verzögern, einschließlich: Nicht-Agrarische Lohnsummen (6. Feb) CPI (11. Feb) Für ein bereits gespaltenes FOMC bedeutet weniger Daten weniger Vertrauen. Und für eine Fed, die immer noch zögerlich ist, zu lockern, wird Datenunsicherheit zu einem Vorwand, um abzuwarten. 📌 Powells Fenster für einen weiteren Zinsschnitt war bereits eng. Ein Stillstand könnte es ganz schließen.

US-Stillstand

Warum ein US-Stillstand ein größeres Marktrisiko darstellt, als es scheint
Das größte Risiko eines möglichen Regierungsstillstands sind nicht die politischen Aspekte —
es ist das Fehlen von Daten.
Ein langanhaltender Haushaltsstreit könnte wichtige wirtschaftliche Veröffentlichungen stören oder verzögern, einschließlich:
Nicht-Agrarische Lohnsummen (6. Feb)
CPI (11. Feb)
Für ein bereits gespaltenes FOMC bedeutet weniger Daten weniger Vertrauen.
Und für eine Fed, die immer noch zögerlich ist, zu lockern, wird Datenunsicherheit zu einem Vorwand, um abzuwarten.
📌 Powells Fenster für einen weiteren Zinsschnitt war bereits eng.
Ein Stillstand könnte es ganz schließen.
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Bullisch
🚨 U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Jumps to 80% in Just 72 Hours The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has surged from 10% to nearly 80%, following recent political and social tensions linked to the Minneapolis incident. Despite the House passing the remaining FY2026 bills, Senate Democrats are blocking progress over homeland security provisions and the lack of CBP/ICE policy reforms — preventing the bill from reaching the required 60-vote threshold before Friday’s deadline. 📌 This is no longer background political noise. Markets are now forced to price in real shutdown risk. $BTC $BNB
🚨 U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Jumps to 80% in Just 72 Hours
The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has surged from 10% to nearly 80%, following recent political and social tensions linked to the Minneapolis incident.
Despite the House passing the remaining FY2026 bills, Senate Democrats are blocking progress over homeland security provisions and the lack of CBP/ICE policy reforms — preventing the bill from reaching the required 60-vote threshold before Friday’s deadline.
📌 This is no longer background political noise.
Markets are now forced to price in real shutdown risk.
$BTC
$BNB
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Bullisch
Notably, the US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to its lowest level since the early 2000s. This ongoing de-dollarization trend is driving central banks and large institutions to increase gold holdings, creating a long-term structural support for precious metal prices. 📌 This is less about short-term moves — and more about strategic reserve reallocation.$BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)
Notably, the US dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to its lowest level since the early 2000s.
This ongoing de-dollarization trend is driving central banks and large institutions to increase gold holdings, creating a long-term structural support for precious metal prices.
📌 This is less about short-term moves — and more about strategic reserve reallocation.$BTC
🌍 Global Trade Is Quietly Shifting India is reportedly finalizing a new trade agreement with the EU, cutting auto import tariffs from 110% to 40%, with a long-term target of 10%. At the same time: India is deepening trade ties with the EU Canada is moving closer to trade agreements with China This isn’t isolated news. It points to a broader trend: global trade flows are being restructured, often outside the traditional US-centric framework. 📌 The global trade map is changing — and markets are starting to notice
🌍 Global Trade Is Quietly Shifting
India is reportedly finalizing a new trade agreement with the EU, cutting auto import tariffs from 110% to 40%, with a long-term target of 10%.
At the same time:
India is deepening trade ties with the EU
Canada is moving closer to trade agreements with China
This isn’t isolated news.
It points to a broader trend: global trade flows are being restructured, often outside the traditional US-centric framework.
📌 The global trade map is changing — and markets are starting to notice
🚀 ETF-Zuflüsse oder COMEX-Spekulanten treiben nicht den parabolischen Anstieg von Silber in Richtung $110. Die Bestände in Silber-ETFs und spekulative Positionen am COMEX sinken weiterhin, anstatt zu steigen. Das deutet darauf hin, dass die Rallye nicht durch gehebelte Wetten oder Einzelhandels-Hype angeheizt wird, sondern durch tiefere strukturelle Nachfrage und physische Marktdynamik. 📌 Mit anderen Worten, dieser Schritt sieht stärker aus — und potenziell haltbarer — als ein typischer spekulativer Anstieg. $$$$BTC {future}(XAGUSDT)
🚀 ETF-Zuflüsse oder COMEX-Spekulanten treiben nicht den parabolischen Anstieg von Silber in Richtung $110.

Die Bestände in Silber-ETFs und spekulative Positionen am COMEX sinken weiterhin, anstatt zu steigen.

Das deutet darauf hin, dass die Rallye nicht durch gehebelte Wetten oder Einzelhandels-Hype angeheizt wird, sondern durch tiefere strukturelle Nachfrage und physische Marktdynamik.

📌 Mit anderen Worten, dieser Schritt sieht stärker aus — und potenziell haltbarer — als ein typischer spekulativer Anstieg.
$$$$BTC
💵 USD Weakens — The Commodity Cycle Is Coming Back Last week may have looked like multiple separate stories, but in reality, it was one clear picture of capital rotation. Gold pushing toward 5,000 and silver breaking 100 signal a strong preference for hard assets. At the same time, the USD just posted its worst week in nine months. Historically, a weaker dollar tends to trigger: A rebound in industrial metals A strong move in energy stocks Renewed capital flows into emerging markets, driven by valuation and currency effects The bigger picture: The USD may be entering a prolonged downtrend Precious metals remain in a long-term bull market Emerging markets look cheap relative to the US and can move fast when risk appetite shifts {future}(BTCUSDT) 📌 This isn’t noise — it’s a shift in global money flow.
💵 USD Weakens — The Commodity Cycle Is Coming Back

Last week may have looked like multiple separate stories, but in reality, it was one clear picture of capital rotation.

Gold pushing toward 5,000 and silver breaking 100 signal a strong preference for hard assets.

At the same time, the USD just posted its worst week in nine months.

Historically, a weaker dollar tends to trigger:

A rebound in industrial metals
A strong move in energy stocks
Renewed capital flows into emerging markets, driven by valuation and currency effects

The bigger picture:
The USD may be entering a prolonged downtrend
Precious metals remain in a long-term bull market
Emerging markets look cheap relative to the US and can move fast when risk appetite shifts

📌 This isn’t noise — it’s a shift in global money flow.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) This incident strengthens, not weakens, BTC’s core principle: Not your keys, not your coins. The protocol didn’t fail — people did . Long-term narrative remains intact.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC) This incident strengthens, not weakens, BTC’s core principle: Not your keys, not your coins. The protocol didn’t fail — people did . Long-term narrative remains intact.
Nicolas de Luusc
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#southkoreaseizedbtcloss
🚨 Südkorea verlor 48 Millionen Dollar an beschlagnahmtem Bitcoin — Ja, staatlich kontrollierte BTC

Berichten zufolge haben die südkoreanischen Behörden den Zugriff auf Bitcoin im Wert von etwa 48 Millionen Dollar verloren, angeblich aufgrund eines mit Phishing verbundenen Vorfalls.

Lass das sacken.
Das war kein Hack auf einer Börse.
Das war keine Panik im Einzelhandel.

Das war Bitcoin, der bereits beschlagnahmt und vom Staat gehalten wurde — weg.

Die Geschichte entfaltet sich weiterhin, aber eines ist bereits klar:

Krypto vergibt keine schlechte Verwahrung — egal wer du bist.
Die Märkte können kurzfristig emotional reagieren, aber dieses Ereignis geht tiefer als der Preis.
Es geht um Kontrolle, Verantwortung und Sicherheit.

Weitere Details werden erwartet, während die Untersuchung fortschreitet.
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
#southkoreaseizedbtcloss 🚨 Südkorea verlor 48 Millionen Dollar an beschlagnahmtem Bitcoin — Ja, staatlich kontrollierte BTC Berichten zufolge haben die südkoreanischen Behörden den Zugriff auf Bitcoin im Wert von etwa 48 Millionen Dollar verloren, angeblich aufgrund eines mit Phishing verbundenen Vorfalls. Lass das sacken. Das war kein Hack auf einer Börse. Das war keine Panik im Einzelhandel. Das war Bitcoin, der bereits beschlagnahmt und vom Staat gehalten wurde — weg. Die Geschichte entfaltet sich weiterhin, aber eines ist bereits klar: Krypto vergibt keine schlechte Verwahrung — egal wer du bist. Die Märkte können kurzfristig emotional reagieren, aber dieses Ereignis geht tiefer als der Preis. Es geht um Kontrolle, Verantwortung und Sicherheit. Weitere Details werden erwartet, während die Untersuchung fortschreitet. $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)
#southkoreaseizedbtcloss
🚨 Südkorea verlor 48 Millionen Dollar an beschlagnahmtem Bitcoin — Ja, staatlich kontrollierte BTC

Berichten zufolge haben die südkoreanischen Behörden den Zugriff auf Bitcoin im Wert von etwa 48 Millionen Dollar verloren, angeblich aufgrund eines mit Phishing verbundenen Vorfalls.

Lass das sacken.
Das war kein Hack auf einer Börse.
Das war keine Panik im Einzelhandel.

Das war Bitcoin, der bereits beschlagnahmt und vom Staat gehalten wurde — weg.

Die Geschichte entfaltet sich weiterhin, aber eines ist bereits klar:

Krypto vergibt keine schlechte Verwahrung — egal wer du bist.
Die Märkte können kurzfristig emotional reagieren, aber dieses Ereignis geht tiefer als der Preis.
Es geht um Kontrolle, Verantwortung und Sicherheit.

Weitere Details werden erwartet, während die Untersuchung fortschreitet.
$BTC
Plan B if $BTC won’t work out
Plan B if $BTC won’t work out
🚨 BTC at a Crossroad — This Week’s US Data Will Decide the Next Move Bitcoin is currently consolidating near key levels, and the next short-term direction will likely be driven not by narratives, but by US macro data. 📊 Key US Economic Data (Early January) This week’s focus: ISM Manufacturing PMI ADP Employment JOLTS Job Openings Initial Jobless Claims Non-Farm Payrolls (Jan 9) How the market may react: 📉 Weaker data (cooling jobs, soft PMI) → Higher odds of Fed rate cuts → Bullish for BTC & risk assets 📈 Stronger data → Fed stays hawkish → BTC could see a short-term pullback $BTC
🚨 BTC at a Crossroad — This Week’s US Data Will Decide the Next Move

Bitcoin is currently consolidating near key levels, and the next short-term direction will likely be driven not by narratives, but by US macro data.

📊 Key US Economic Data (Early January)

This week’s focus:
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ADP Employment
JOLTS Job Openings
Initial Jobless Claims
Non-Farm Payrolls (Jan 9)

How the market may react:
📉 Weaker data (cooling jobs, soft PMI)

→ Higher odds of Fed rate cuts

→ Bullish for BTC & risk assets

📈 Stronger data

→ Fed stays hawkish
→ BTC could see a short-term pullback
$BTC
🚨 US Economic Data This Week: 3 Key Drivers for BTC & Crypto Global markets are watching three major US economic reports this week that could shape Fed rate expectations and drive volatility in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. 🔹 NFP & Unemployment Weaker labour data → higher odds of Fed rate cuts → bullish for crypto. 🔹 CPI & Core CPI (Inflation) Cooling inflation → reduced pressure on the Fed → positive tailwind for BTC and risk assets. 🔹 Retail Sales / PMI Markets want a “soft landing”. Moderate cooling supports crypto; too much weakness raises recession risks. 📌 Bottom Line: A slowing US economy with controlled inflation = upside momentum for crypto. #FOMCWatch #BTC
🚨 US Economic Data This Week: 3 Key Drivers for BTC & Crypto

Global markets are watching three major US economic reports this week that could shape Fed rate expectations and drive volatility in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

🔹 NFP & Unemployment

Weaker labour data → higher odds of Fed rate cuts → bullish for crypto.

🔹 CPI & Core CPI (Inflation)

Cooling inflation → reduced pressure on the Fed → positive tailwind for BTC and risk assets.

🔹 Retail Sales / PMI

Markets want a “soft landing”.

Moderate cooling supports crypto; too much weakness raises recession risks.

📌 Bottom Line:

A slowing US economy with controlled inflation = upside momentum for crypto.

#FOMCWatch #BTC
U.S. Stocks: Weak Rebound After Thanksgiving, Fed Pause Concerns U.S. markets reopened on December 1 after the Thanksgiving break with a tech-led sell-off. The Nasdaq dropped 2–3% as Nvidia fell 4% and Tesla 5%. While the S&P 500 and Dow gained 1–2% last week, November still closed down 4–6% as the 10-year yield jumped to 4.62%. Mixed economic data — Consumer Confidence at 110 and Q3 GDP at +2.8% — pushed expectations for a December Fed rate cut down from 100% to 85%. Investors also remain cautious about potential inflation pressure from Trump’s tariff plans. Key data this week (S&P Global): • Dec 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI • Dec 3: Nonfarm Payrolls (forecast +200k) • Dec 4: Fed Minutes Nasdaq may retest the 17,000 level if yields rise above 4.7%. Market sentiment softened globally, with Japan leading the sell-off. Even Vistra (energy) fell despite strong Q2 earnings, partly due to volatility tied to crypto markets {spot}(BTCUSDT)
U.S. Stocks: Weak Rebound After Thanksgiving, Fed Pause Concerns

U.S. markets reopened on December 1 after the Thanksgiving break with a tech-led sell-off. The Nasdaq dropped 2–3% as Nvidia fell 4% and Tesla 5%. While the S&P 500 and Dow gained 1–2% last week, November still closed down 4–6% as the 10-year yield jumped to 4.62%.

Mixed economic data — Consumer Confidence at 110 and Q3 GDP at +2.8% — pushed expectations for a December Fed rate cut down from 100% to 85%. Investors also remain cautious about potential inflation pressure from Trump’s tariff plans.

Key data this week (S&P Global):

• Dec 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI

• Dec 3: Nonfarm Payrolls (forecast +200k)

• Dec 4: Fed Minutes

Nasdaq may retest the 17,000 level if yields rise above 4.7%.

Market sentiment softened globally, with Japan leading the sell-off. Even Vistra (energy) fell despite strong Q2 earnings, partly due to volatility tied to crypto markets
CPI Forecast for August 12, 2025 CPI (YoY): Expected at 2.8%, up from 2.7% in June. Core CPI (YoY): Expected at 3.1%, up from 2.9%. Key Drivers: Trump’s tariffs (145% on China, 10-41% globally), rising housing and food costs, offset slightly by lower energy prices. Bitcoin: Below 2.8%: Boosts expectations for Fed rate cuts, weakens USD, likely pushing BTC past $122,838 toward $130,000. Above 2.8%: Reduces rate cut odds, strengthens USD, potentially dropping BTC to $115,000-$118,000. Current BTC: ~$122,000, near all-time high, highly sensitive to CPI outcome.
CPI Forecast for August 12, 2025 CPI (YoY): Expected at 2.8%, up from 2.7% in June. Core CPI (YoY): Expected at 3.1%, up from 2.9%. Key Drivers: Trump’s tariffs (145% on China, 10-41% globally), rising housing and food costs, offset slightly by lower energy prices.
Bitcoin: Below 2.8%: Boosts expectations for Fed rate cuts, weakens USD, likely pushing BTC past $122,838 toward $130,000. Above 2.8%: Reduces rate cut odds, strengthens USD, potentially dropping BTC to $115,000-$118,000. Current BTC: ~$122,000, near all-time high, highly sensitive to CPI outcome.
Präsident Donald Trump unterzeichnete eine Exekutive Anordnung, die Kryptowährungen und alternative Vermögenswerte in US 401(k) Rentenplänen erlaubt und den $9 Billionen Rentenmarkt für digitale Vermögenswerte öffnet. Dieser Schritt überarbeitet die Investitionsregeln und ermöglicht über 90 Millionen Amerikanern, Krypto in ihre Rentenportfolios aufzunehmen. Die Anordnung schafft auch das American Manufacturing and Investment Programme zur Förderung von blockchain-Innovation in den USA. Bitcoin erreichte einen Rekordwert von über 123.000 $ angesichts wachsender institutioneller und politischer Unterstützung. Analysten prognostizieren erhebliche Zuflüsse in Krypto, die das globale Finanzwesen potenziell umgestalten könnten, während andere Regionen folgen könnten. Trotz Bedenken hinsichtlich der Volatilität sehen Branchenführer dies als einen entscheidenden Schritt zur Integration digitaler Vermögenswerte in die Mainstream-Finanzwelt, mit angemessenem Risikomanagement und Diversifikation. #CryptoIn401k
Präsident Donald Trump unterzeichnete eine Exekutive Anordnung, die Kryptowährungen und alternative Vermögenswerte in US 401(k) Rentenplänen erlaubt und den $9 Billionen Rentenmarkt für digitale Vermögenswerte öffnet. Dieser Schritt überarbeitet die Investitionsregeln und ermöglicht über 90 Millionen Amerikanern, Krypto in ihre Rentenportfolios aufzunehmen. Die Anordnung schafft auch das American Manufacturing and Investment Programme zur Förderung von blockchain-Innovation in den USA. Bitcoin erreichte einen Rekordwert von über 123.000 $ angesichts wachsender institutioneller und politischer Unterstützung. Analysten prognostizieren erhebliche Zuflüsse in Krypto, die das globale Finanzwesen potenziell umgestalten könnten, während andere Regionen folgen könnten. Trotz Bedenken hinsichtlich der Volatilität sehen Branchenführer dies als einen entscheidenden Schritt zur Integration digitaler Vermögenswerte in die Mainstream-Finanzwelt, mit angemessenem Risikomanagement und Diversifikation.
#CryptoIn401k
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