• The market maker is still selling. Another ~130K Q went to its Gate account at 19:02, and ~11.6M Q has gone to exchanges in the last 24h, all below its own cost. This bounce to 0.033 is being sold into. • Longs are trapped. Whale longs hold ~48M Q at an average entry of ~0.051. Every push up is exit liquidity for them. • Shorts are in control. ~94M Q of whale shorts are sitting in profit, and open interest keeps rising. • The Alpha order book is seller-heavy (buy/sell ratio ~0.42). • ~226M Q unlocks on Nov 2, landing on a DEX book of only ~$1.2M. • Every Q pump since September has been fully retraced.
Dump path: 0.0305 → 0.0295, where ~$356k of long liquidations sit. That's the fuel for a flush. Then last night's low at 0.0262, then the pre-pump base around 0.021 (~-36% from here).
Longing here means betting against the market maker.
• ~88% of the 10B supply sits in project/vesting or long-dormant wallets. Only ~9% (~0.9B) actually trades. Whoever moves that float moves the price. • October: 0.021 → 0.236 (over 10x), then back to ~0.031 (-87%). On Oct 26 it did +247% in a day, and -73% the next day. That's not organic price discovery. • A market-maker-type cluster runs it in cycles: accumulate, pump, distribute. It bought ~155M Q overnight and has been sending coins to exchanges since this morning. • Last night ~97M Q was dumped into Binance Alpha within 30 minutes, from wallets that had withdrawn earlier and were routed through fresh addresses. • Futures drive the price: ~$170M daily futures volume against a real float worth only ~$30M. Funding hit the -2%/h cap today. • ~226M Q unlocks every month (next: Nov 2).
If you can't handle -50% days, stay away. If you trade it anyway: small size, no leverage, and don't chase green candles.
$Q • The market-maker-type cluster stopped buying this morning and has been sending coins to exchanges since: ~10M Q in 24h. • Whale shorts (~95M, avg entry ~0.037) are in profit, and open interest is rising while price falls. Shorts are adding, not covering. • Last night ~97M Q was dumped into Binance Alpha in a coordinated way. Large holders are still exiting. • ~226M Q unlocks on Nov 2, landing on a thin book.
Downside levels: 0.029 → 0.026 → 0.021
Risks you must respect: • Funding is about -0.05%/h, so shorts pay roughly 1.3% a day to hold. • Crowded shorts are squeeze fuel. The MM holds ~280M Q with an average cost around 0.045, and on Oct 26 it ran price +247% in a single day. • Invalidation: the cluster resumes buying, or price reclaims 0.0345. A close above 0.037 puts shorts underwater.
The market-maker-type cluster has switched to selling (~10M Q to exchanges in 24h). Whale shorts are in profit and still adding, funding is negative, and the Nov 2 unlock (~226M Q) hits a thin book.
If 0.029 gives way, last night's low at 0.026 is next. Losing that opens the pre-pump base around 0.021, which is -33% from here.
Invalidation: the cluster goes back to buying, or price reclaims 0.0345.
• Price ~0.031, -34% in 24h and ~87% below the Oct 27 wick (0.236). Most of the October pump is gone. • Supply is extremely concentrated: ~88% of the 10B supply sits in project/vesting or long-dormant wallets. The real tradable float is only ~0.9B (~9%). • Monthly unlock (~226M) lands Nov 2. Since June, unlocked tranches have stayed in fresh wallets and haven't been sold. Worth watching whether that changes. • A large market-maker-type cluster bought ~155M overnight, then switched to small daily sales to exchanges (~10M in 24h). Its average cost is around 0.045. • Futures: ~95M of whale shorts sitting in profit (avg entry ~0.037), funding negative (~-0.05%/h). Real squeeze fuel only starts above ~0.037–0.040.
Levels: support 0.029 / 0.026, resistance 0.0345 / 0.037. Thin liquidity means big moves both ways. NFA, DYOR.