Sameer Shah
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The Benner Cycle: What a 150-Year-Old Farmer’s Chart Says About 2026
In the world of financial forecasting, few documents are as mysterious and enduring as the Benner Cycle. Created in 1875 by Samuel Benner, a prosperous Ohio farmer who was wiped out by the Panic of 1873, this chart was his attempt to find order in chaos.
Benner noticed that market cycles for corn, pig iron, and hogs followed specific, repeating rhythms—often tied to solar cycles—and he extrapolated these patterns to predict future economic booms and busts.
The chart you uploaded is a modern visualization of Benner's original prophecies. Here is what it predicts for 2026 and how that applies to today’s Stock Market, Crypto, and Global Economy.
1. Decoding the Chart for 2026
The chart is divided into three distinct layers. To understand 2026, we must look at the Middle Row (Row B).
Row A (Top): "Years in which panics have occurred and will occur again."Row B (Middle): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks."Row C (Bottom): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices... and a good time to buy."
Where 2026 Lands:
The year 2026 is clearly marked in Row B.
"Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds."
According to Benner’s strict historical rhythm, 2026 represents a cyclical market peak—a period of maximum euphoria and high valuations.
2. Predictions for Specific Markets
📈 For the Stock Market
If the Benner Cycle holds true, 2026 will likely be a year of irrational exuberance.
The Prediction: Stocks will reach all-time highs. This is not a year for "value investing" but rather a year where prices disconnect from reality.The Strategy: The chart explicitly advises this is the time to sell. It suggests that the "smart money" will be exiting positions while retail investors are buying in due to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).Historical Context: Previous "B" years include 1999 (the peak of the Dot Com bubble before the crash) and 2007 (the peak before the 2008 Financial Crisis).
₿ For Crypto & Bitcoin
While Benner knew nothing of blockchain, modern analysts love overlaying this chart with the Bitcoin Halving Cycle.
The Convergence: The most recent Bitcoin halving was in 2024. historically, the crypto market peaks 12–18 months after a halving. This places the "blow-off top" (the absolute highest price) squarely in late 2025 or 2026.The Outlook: Crypto markets could see a massive run-up in 2026, aligning with the "High Prices" prediction. However, the chart warns that this is a selling window, implying a severe "crypto winter" or bear market would follow immediately after.
🌍 For the World Economy
The "Good Times" label in Benner’s terminology usually refers to high commodity prices and inflation.
Inflationary Boom: You might see high prices for goods, real estate, and services. The economy may feel strong, but it is likely overheated.The Turning Point: Benner’s cycle suggests that "Good Times" are inevitably followed by "Hard Times." 2026 is effectively the cliff edge before a predicted downturn or correction that would theoretically follow in the subsequent years (2027–2032).
3. Critical Analysis: Should You Trust It?
Why It Might Be Right?
Human Psychology: Fear and Greed never change. Bubbles (1999, 2007) often follow the timeline surprisingly well.Solar Cycles: Benner based this on 11-year solar cycles, which do affect agriculture and energy prices even today. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Algorithms and traders watch these charts, sometimes causing the market to react to them.
Why It Might Be Wrong?
Modern Intervention: Benner didn't have Central Banks (Fed) that can print money to delay crashes.Agrarian vs. Digital: The economy is no longer based on corn and pig iron; it is service and tech-based.Precision: The chart often misses by 1-2 years. It predicted a panic in 1981 (recession was '81-'82) and 1999 (crash was 2000).
Summary Verdict
The chart identifies 2026 as a "Sell" year. It predicts a peak in asset prices across the board. If you follow Benner's logic, you should enjoy the ride up during 2024 and 2025, but be ready to take profits and move to cash/safety during 2026, before the cycle turns toward the "Hard Times" predicted for the early 2030s.
$BTC $XAU $XAG
#USIranStandoff #FedHoldsRates
Benner noticed that market cycles for corn, pig iron, and hogs followed specific, repeating rhythms—often tied to solar cycles—and he extrapolated these patterns to predict future economic booms and busts.
The chart you uploaded is a modern visualization of Benner's original prophecies. Here is what it predicts for 2026 and how that applies to today’s Stock Market, Crypto, and Global Economy.
1. Decoding the Chart for 2026
The chart is divided into three distinct layers. To understand 2026, we must look at the Middle Row (Row B).
Row A (Top): "Years in which panics have occurred and will occur again."Row B (Middle): "Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks."Row C (Bottom): "Years of Hard Times, Low Prices... and a good time to buy."
Where 2026 Lands:
The year 2026 is clearly marked in Row B.
"Years of Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds."
According to Benner’s strict historical rhythm, 2026 represents a cyclical market peak—a period of maximum euphoria and high valuations.
2. Predictions for Specific Markets
📈 For the Stock Market
If the Benner Cycle holds true, 2026 will likely be a year of irrational exuberance.
The Prediction: Stocks will reach all-time highs. This is not a year for "value investing" but rather a year where prices disconnect from reality.The Strategy: The chart explicitly advises this is the time to sell. It suggests that the "smart money" will be exiting positions while retail investors are buying in due to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).Historical Context: Previous "B" years include 1999 (the peak of the Dot Com bubble before the crash) and 2007 (the peak before the 2008 Financial Crisis).
₿ For Crypto & Bitcoin
While Benner knew nothing of blockchain, modern analysts love overlaying this chart with the Bitcoin Halving Cycle.
The Convergence: The most recent Bitcoin halving was in 2024. historically, the crypto market peaks 12–18 months after a halving. This places the "blow-off top" (the absolute highest price) squarely in late 2025 or 2026.The Outlook: Crypto markets could see a massive run-up in 2026, aligning with the "High Prices" prediction. However, the chart warns that this is a selling window, implying a severe "crypto winter" or bear market would follow immediately after.
🌍 For the World Economy
The "Good Times" label in Benner’s terminology usually refers to high commodity prices and inflation.
Inflationary Boom: You might see high prices for goods, real estate, and services. The economy may feel strong, but it is likely overheated.The Turning Point: Benner’s cycle suggests that "Good Times" are inevitably followed by "Hard Times." 2026 is effectively the cliff edge before a predicted downturn or correction that would theoretically follow in the subsequent years (2027–2032).
3. Critical Analysis: Should You Trust It?
Why It Might Be Right?
Human Psychology: Fear and Greed never change. Bubbles (1999, 2007) often follow the timeline surprisingly well.Solar Cycles: Benner based this on 11-year solar cycles, which do affect agriculture and energy prices even today. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: Algorithms and traders watch these charts, sometimes causing the market to react to them.
Why It Might Be Wrong?
Modern Intervention: Benner didn't have Central Banks (Fed) that can print money to delay crashes.Agrarian vs. Digital: The economy is no longer based on corn and pig iron; it is service and tech-based.Precision: The chart often misses by 1-2 years. It predicted a panic in 1981 (recession was '81-'82) and 1999 (crash was 2000).
Summary Verdict
The chart identifies 2026 as a "Sell" year. It predicts a peak in asset prices across the board. If you follow Benner's logic, you should enjoy the ride up during 2024 and 2025, but be ready to take profits and move to cash/safety during 2026, before the cycle turns toward the "Hard Times" predicted for the early 2030s.
$BTC $XAU $XAG
#USIranStandoff #FedHoldsRates
⚡ 21Shares hat ein Solana Staking-ETP in Europa eingeführt, das Investoren Zugang zu den Preisbewegungen von Solana sowie zu einer doppelten Rendite aus Staking-Belohnungen und Transaktionseinnahmen durch JitoSOL bietet.
$SOL
$SOL
Government shutdown odds keep climbing.
After the bipartisan Senate blocked the latest funding bill, urgent negotiations are on their way to prevent another shutdown.
The previous record-long shutdown continues to affect all government economic data releases and, through them, the Federal Reserve's core policy decisions, as we saw when Jerome Powell extensively cited the BEA PCE numbers from November and earlier as the main indicator of sticky inflation.
Polymarket now predicts 92% chance of a shutdown by January 31st, but only 75% of a shutdown on Saturday, the same day; both markets will resolve by January 31.
Perfect time to start using Truflation's daily real price data that doesn't shut down when the US government does.
#FedHoldsRates
After the bipartisan Senate blocked the latest funding bill, urgent negotiations are on their way to prevent another shutdown.
The previous record-long shutdown continues to affect all government economic data releases and, through them, the Federal Reserve's core policy decisions, as we saw when Jerome Powell extensively cited the BEA PCE numbers from November and earlier as the main indicator of sticky inflation.
Polymarket now predicts 92% chance of a shutdown by January 31st, but only 75% of a shutdown on Saturday, the same day; both markets will resolve by January 31.
Perfect time to start using Truflation's daily real price data that doesn't shut down when the US government does.
#FedHoldsRates
“Jerome TOO LATE Powell again refused to cut interest rates.”
🇦🇪 Abu Dhabis universelle digitale Währung hat USDU, den ersten USD-Stablecoin, der von der Zentralbank der VAE registriert wurde, mit Reserven, die 1:1 durch US-Dollar, die bei den Emirates NBD und Mashreq-Banken gehalten werden, gedeckt sind.
$USD1
$USD1
WHAT HAPPENED TODAY IS A ONCE-IN-A-DECADE THING 🚨
Everything was going well until the US market opened.
$BTC started to dump first, and then everything went downhill.
In the next hour:
Gold dumped 8% and erased $3.1 trillion.
Silver dumped 12% and erased $700 billion.
S&P 500 dumped 1.3% and erased $800 billion.
Crypto market cap erased $110 billion.
In a span of one hour, over $5 trillion was wiped out from these assets.
This is equivalent to the GDP of Russia and Canada combined.
But what triggered this?
For gold and silver, leverage was the biggest trigger.
Retail FOMOed at the top, and they got wiped out in an hour.
For crypto and stocks, US-Iran escalation was the trigger.
USS Abraham Lincoln has gone dark, which signals possible preparation for action against Iran.
Overall, today’s event is something that will be remembered for a long time.
#FedHoldsRates $XAU $BTC
Everything was going well until the US market opened.
$BTC started to dump first, and then everything went downhill.
In the next hour:
Gold dumped 8% and erased $3.1 trillion.
Silver dumped 12% and erased $700 billion.
S&P 500 dumped 1.3% and erased $800 billion.
Crypto market cap erased $110 billion.
In a span of one hour, over $5 trillion was wiped out from these assets.
This is equivalent to the GDP of Russia and Canada combined.
But what triggered this?
For gold and silver, leverage was the biggest trigger.
Retail FOMOed at the top, and they got wiped out in an hour.
For crypto and stocks, US-Iran escalation was the trigger.
USS Abraham Lincoln has gone dark, which signals possible preparation for action against Iran.
Overall, today’s event is something that will be remembered for a long time.
#FedHoldsRates $XAU $BTC
Iranian Navy will conduct exercises with China and Russia in the Sea of Oman and the Indian Ocean over the coming days.
The US carrier strike group along with 3 more destroyers are also stationed in this area.
#USIranStandoff
The US carrier strike group along with 3 more destroyers are also stationed in this area.
#USIranStandoff
🇺🇸 FED Chair Jerome Powell says US inflation remains elevated.
Truflation says it's near yearly lows.
#FedHoldsRates
Truflation says it's near yearly lows.
#FedHoldsRates
🇮🇷 Iran gab bekannt, dass es zwischen Sonntag und Montag Live-Feuer-Marineübungen in der Straße von Hormuz durchführen wird.
Die Straße von Hormuz transportiert 20 Prozent des globalen Ölhandels.
#USIranStandoff
Die Straße von Hormuz transportiert 20 Prozent des globalen Ölhandels.
#USIranStandoff
🇨🇳 China’s gold reserves hit a record 74.1 million ounces.
U.S. Treasury holdings fall to an 18-year low of $682.6 billion.
$XAU
U.S. Treasury holdings fall to an 18-year low of $682.6 billion.
$XAU
🇺🇸 Mayor Zohran Mamdani says he will raise taxes on high earners & corporations because NYC is facing a financial crisis at a scale "greater than the Great Recession."
#FedWatch
#FedWatch
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