ALISHBA SOZAR

New macro data just dropped and it’s worse than anyone realizes.

This is not a drill.

98% of people will lose everything this year.

Not because of a normal recession.
Not because of a bank run.
Not because of never-ending military conflicts.
Something bigger is coming.

It starts in sovereign bonds - especially U.S. Treasuries.

Bond volatility is waking up.
The MOVE index is rising, and that never happens without stress underneath.
Bonds don’t move on stories, they move when funding tightens.

And right now, three fault lines are converging:

1⃣ U.S. Treasury

In 2026, the U.S. must refinance massive debt while running huge deficits.
Interest costs are surging, foreign demand is fading, dealers are constrained, and long-end auctions are already showing cracks.

Weaker demand. Bigger tails. Less balance sheet.
That’s how funding shocks begin - quietly.

2⃣ Japan

The largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries and the core of global carry trades.
If USD/JPY keeps climbing and the BOJ reacts, carry trades unwind fast.

When that happens, Japan sells foreign bonds too - adding pressure to U.S. yields at the worst possible time.

Japan doesn’t start the fire, but it'll contribute to it big way.

3⃣ China

Their massive local-government debt problem still sits unresolved.
If that stress surfaces, the yuan weakens, capital flees, the dollar strengthens - and U.S. yields rise again.

China amplifies the shock.
The trigger doesn’t need to be dramatic.
One badly received 10Y or 30Y auction is enough.

We’ve seen this before - the UK crisis in 2022 followed the same script.
This time, the scale is global.

If a funding shock hits, the sequence is clear:
Yields spike → Dollar up → Liquidity dries up → Risk assets sell off fast.

Then central banks step in.
Liquidity injections → Swap lines →Balance sheet tools.

Stability returns, but with more liquidity.
Real yields fall → Gold breaks out → Silver follows → Bitcoin recovers → Commodities move → The dollar rolls over.

The shock sets up the next inflationary cycle.
That’s why 2026 matters.
Not because everything collapses, but because multiple stress cycles peak at once.

The signal is already there.
Bond volatility doesn’t rise early by accident.
The world can survive recessions.
What it can’t handle is a disorderly Treasury market.

That risk is building quietly - and by the time it’s obvious, it’s too late.

Many will wish they paid attention sooner.

asked him what separates traders who survive from traders who blow up

his answer surprised me

it wasn't strategy. it wasn't discipline. it wasn't psychology.

"bet sizing. that's it. that's the whole game."

here's what he explained:

THE THESIS:

"I've seen hundreds of traders come through. good ones. smart ones. talented ones."

"90% of the ones who blew up didn't blow up from bad trades. they blew up from bad sizing on normal trades."

"a 1R loss at proper size is nothing. a 1R loss at 10x proper size is account death."

THE EXAMPLES:

he walked me through case studies:

TRADER A:
- excellent strategy, 58% WR
- consistently profitable for 2 years
- had a "high conviction" trade
- sized up 5x normal position
- trade lost
- drawdown was 23% instead of 5%
- psychology cracked
- revenge traded the next week
- blew the account in 8 days

"he didn't blow up from a bad trade. he blew up from a big trade."

TRADER B:
- mediocre strategy, 51% WR
- survived for 11 years
- never sized above 0.8% per trade
- took the same size on every trade
- no "high conviction" sizing
- compounded slowly but never blew up

"he's worth $4M now. started with $50k. just never killed himself with size."

THE RULE:

"every trader who blows up violates the same rule"

"they size based on CONVICTION instead of MATH"

"'this one feels right' so they go bigger"
"'I'm on a winning streak' so they go bigger"
"'I need to make it back' so they go bigger"

"conviction is how you justify stupid sizing"

THE DATA:

he showed me internal research:

traders who sized based on conviction:
- average survival time: 2.4 years
- account explosion rate: 74%

traders who sized mathematically (same size every trade):
- average survival time: 8.3 years
- account explosion rate: 12%

"it's not even close. variable sizing kills traders."

THE MATH:

he broke down why "high conviction" sizing is stupid:

"let's say you're 60% accurate on normal trades"
"let's say you're 70% accurate on 'high conviction' trades"

"sounds good right? go bigger on the 70% trades?"

"wrong. here's why:"

"at 60% accuracy with 1% risk, a 4-loss streak costs you 4%"
"at 70% accuracy with 5% risk, a 4-loss streak costs you 20%"

"and 4-loss streaks happen even at 70% accuracy"

"you FEEL more confident but the math doesn't justify the size increase"

THE SOLUTION:

"how do you size then?"

"same size every trade. no exceptions."

"what about when you're really confident?"

"same size. confidence isn't accuracy."

"what about when the setup is perfect?"

"same size. perfect setups lose 40% of the time."

"what about when you're on a winning streak?"

"same size. streaks end."

"every trade gets the same respect. the 'boring' ones and the 'perfect' ones."

THE IMPLEMENTATION:

his rules for position sizing:

1. calculate your base risk (0.5-2% depending on account size and edge)
2. that's your risk on EVERY trade
3. never size up. ever.
4. if you want more money, scale accounts/capital. don't scale risk.

"I've been trading 23 years. I've never taken a trade above 2% risk. not once."

"my biggest winners and my 'meh' trades got the same size"

"I'm not trying to hit home runs. I'm trying to not strike out."

THE TRUTH:

retail traders think they need big trades to make big money

professionals know big trades make big losses

the traders managing real money all size conservatively

they make money through VOLUME of good trades not SIZE of individual trades

if you're varying your position size based on "conviction":
you're already on the path to blowing up

it's just a matter of when

same size
every trade
no exceptions

that's how you survive

80% der Menschen werden ihre Häuser verlieren…

weil sie sich die Zahlungen nicht mehr leisten können.

Es geht nicht darum, auf eine Kehrtwende der Fed zu warten, das System selbst ist am Ersticken.

UND DAS IST SCHLIMMER ALS 2008.

Hier ist genau der Grund warum:

Schau dir das Diagramm an. Es erzählt die gesamte Geschichte der US-Wirtschaft gerade jetzt:

Schwarze Linie (Kosten): Hypothekenzahlungen als % des Einkommens liegen bei 40%. HISTORISCHE EXTREME.

Braune Linie (Volumen): Die Verkaufsdynamik ist auf ein Niveau gefallen, das wir seit den 90ern nicht mehr gesehen haben.

Wenn die Erschwinglichkeit bricht, klären sich die Märkte normalerweise über den Preis.