KaiZXBT

DER 4-JAHRES-ZYKLUS VON BITCOIN IST NICHT TOT — ER SPIELT SICH GENAU RECHTZEITIG AB.

Vergrößern Sie die Ansicht, ignorieren Sie den Lärm und schauen Sie sich die Roadmap an, die Bitcoin seit über einem Jahrzehnt folgt.

Das langfristige Diagramm gibt eines der klarsten Signale im Krypto-Bereich:

Zyklusgipfel-Timing:

→ 2012

→ 2017

→ 2021

→ 2025 lädt…

Jeder Gipfel ist ungefähr 1.420–1.450 Tage auseinander gefallen — fast wie ein Uhrwerk.

Und nach jedem Gipfel wiederholt sich eine brutale Wahrheit:

Gipfel 2012 → -79% Crash

Gipfel 2017 → -81% Crash

Gipfel 2021 → -75% Crash

Gleiche Struktur. Gleiche Zeitplanung. Gleiche makropsychologische Gegebenheiten.

Wenn die Leute also sagen „Dieses Mal ist es anders“, sagt das Diagramm:

Nein — dieses Mal ist es dasselbe. Und der nächste große Gipfel steht für 2025 bevor.

Wenn die Geschichte sich wiederholt, treten wir in die letzte Beschleunigungsphase ein.

Bleiben Sie fokussiert. Bleiben Sie strategisch.

Die echte Bewegung hat noch nicht einmal begonnen.

#CYCLE

$ZEC Technical Analysis

Zcash (ZEC) bounced back above the 50-day SMA ($474) on Saturday, but higher price levels are attracting selling pressure.

The area between the moving averages and the ascending trendline is a crucial support zone to watch. If the price bounces strongly from this support zone, the bulls will attempt to break through the resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $574. If successful, the ZEC/USDT pair could surge to $648.

This bullish scenario will be invalidated in the short term if the Zcash price continues to fall and breaks below the ascending trendline. In that case, the pair could fall to $371.

$DOGE Technical Analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) fell below the $0.12 mark on Wednesday, but the bears were unable to sustain the decline.

Bulls pushed the price back above the $0.13 breakout zone on Thursday, but are struggling to hold higher levels. If the price reverses and breaks below $0.12, it would indicate that bears have turned the $0.13 mark into resistance. In that case, DOGE/USDT could slide back to the October 10th low around $0.10.

Conversely, if the price bounces and breaks above the 50-day SMA at $0.14, it would suggest the market has rejected the previous bearish breakout. Dogecoin could then advance towards the $0.16 region.

$SOL Technical Analysis

Solana (SOL) has risen to the 50-day SMA at $131. However, the long wick of the candle suggests that the bears are defending this area very aggressively.

However, the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that selling pressure is weakening. Bulls will continue their efforts to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If successful, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to $147.

Conversely, if the price reverses downwards from the moving averages and breaks below $116, it indicates that bears are still in control of the market. In that case, SOL could fall to $108 and then to $95.

$XRP Technical Analysis

XRP has been closely following the 20-day EMA at $1.90 for the past few days, increasing the likelihood of a breakout to the upside.

If this happens, the XRP/USDT pair could rise to the descending trendline. Although there is resistance at the 50-day SMA ($2.02), this level is likely to be breached. However, bears are expected to strongly defend the descending trendline. If the price reverses sharply from here, XRP could continue to fluctuate within the price channel for some time.

Conversely, the $1.61 mark is a key support zone. If broken, XRP could enter a new downtrend, heading towards the October 10th low around $1.25.

$BNB Technical Analysis

The bears are trying to defend the 50-day SMA at $873, but the positive sign is that the BNB bulls are still maintaining upward pressure.

This increases the likelihood of the price advancing to the $928 region, where bears are likely to intervene. If the bulls break through this barrier, the BNB/USDT pair will complete an ascending triangle pattern, with the pattern targeting $1,066.

Conversely, if BNB reverses and breaks the ascending trendline, it indicates that the bulls have surrendered. A new downtrend could then begin if the price closes below $790.

$ETH Technical Analysis

Ether (ETH) is still fluctuating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, reflecting market uncertainty about the next trend.

If the closing price is above the 50-day SMA at $3,007, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to the pattern's resistance line. Bears are expected to defend aggressively at this point, as a break could open up an upward momentum towards $4,000.

Conversely, if the price reverses downwards from the resistance line, it suggests ETH may remain trapped within the triangle. Bears will regain control if the closing price falls below the support line.

$BTC Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range of $86,400 to $90,600 for the past few days. Typically, such periods of tight consolidation lead to a strong breakout.

The 20-day EMA is moving sideways around $88,500, and the RSI is fluctuating near its average, indicating that supply and demand are in balance.

If the bulls push the price above $90,600, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to $94,589. This is a crucial resistance level that the bears need to defend, because if the price closes above this level, Bitcoin could advance to $100,000 and even further to $107,500.

Conversely, the bears will gain the upper hand if the price reverses and breaks through the $86,400 mark, increasing the risk of breaking the $84,000 support zone.

Grayscale-Dateien für den Bittensor ETP-Start, der den Weg für den TAO ETF in den USA ebnet.

Laut CrowdfundInsider hat Grayscale Investments einen vorläufigen Antrag bei der U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) eingereicht, um ein börsengehandeltes Produkt (ETP) zu starten, das sich auf Bittensor konzentriert. Dieses Investitionsprodukt wird voraussichtlich unter dem Tickersymbol GTAO gehandelt und bietet Investoren Zugang zu TAO – dem nativen Token des Bittensor-Netzwerks – durch einen streng regulierten Rahmen.

Die S-1-Einreichung, die am 30. Dezember 2025 fällig ist, markiert den Beginn von Grayscales Plan, den aktuellen Bittensor Trust in einen Spot-ETF umzuwandeln. Wenn die SEC zustimmt, würde GTAO das erste in den USA gelistete ETP speziell für TAO werden. Dieser Schritt zeigt das wachsende institutionelle Interesse an dezentraler Infrastruktur für künstliche Intelligenz und spiegelt Grayscales Strategie wider, sein Krypto-Portfolio innerhalb eines regulatorischen Rahmens auszubauen.

Will $BTC reclaim the $100,000 mark in January? Three charts will give you the answer.

Bitcoin entered 2026 in a tug-of-war around the $88,000 mark, extending a sideways trading streak that had lasted for weeks. Outwardly, the market appeared relatively quiet, but on-chain data revealed subtle shifts taking place, particularly on the supply side.

Three indicators from CryptoQuant suggest weakening selling pressure, although macroeconomic factors have yet to create favorable conditions for a strong upward move.

Long-Term Holders Signal Accumulation

Following the correction at the end of 2025, Bitcoin has yet to regain key resistance levels due to cautious buying pressure. However, supply data from long-term holders (LTH) is starting to show positive signs. The net change in LTH supply over the past 30 days has returned to positive territory, increasing by approximately 10,700 BTC. This indicates that long-term investors have stopped distributing and are returning to accumulation, a signal often seen during bottoming-out phases.

LTH SOPR Shows Market Equilibrium

The LTH SOPR index is currently fluctuating around 1, reflecting that long-term holders are not panic selling in a loss-making state. Historically, this is often a sign that the market is finding equilibrium after a correction, rather than entering a deep decline phase.

Outflows from Exchanges Continue

Bitcoin continues to record net outflows from exchanges, thereby reducing the immediate supply available for sale in the spot market. Although prices have not recovered strongly due to limited liquidity and delayed expectations of monetary policy easing, the current supply structure is gradually becoming healthier.

Overall, Bitcoin tends to accumulate more than weaken, laying the groundwork for more sustainable upward movements in the later stages.

$UNI Analysis : The Most Stable DeFi Veteran

Among the three tokens mentioned, Uniswap is the most stable.
The price of UNI has remained almost flat for the past 30 days, a superior result compared to most other DeFi tokens. Uniswap also possesses a clear business model: transaction fees are collected from traders, and a portion of these fees is distributed to UNI holders.

Notably, Uniswap has burned 100 million UNI (approximately $596 million), contributing to a reduction in supply and supporting the token's long-term value.

Whales also bought an additional 4.75 million UNI at the end of the year, showing confidence in the current price level, although it's too early to confirm a strong price surge is imminent.

On the chart, the $6.13 level is a key area to watch. UNI has fallen below this threshold, turning it into a resistance zone. If UNI recovers above $6.13 and holds, the next target would be $8.21, representing a gain of approximately 45%.

Uniswap is also tied to the larger market story. If Ethereum (ETH) experiences strong growth in Q1 2026, DeFi flows will typically follow ETH first, and UNI will be one of the leading tokens if the market begins to recover.

In short, 2026 promises to bring many new opportunities for DeFi tokens, especially those mentioned above, with key price levels and clear market dynamics. Investors should consider closely monitoring these developments to seize potential investment opportunities.

$ASTER : Does the Decentralized Exchange Story Live Up?

Aster is currently one of the most active perpetual futures trading platforms on the market. Perpetual futures exchanges allow users to trade futures contracts without being limited by expiration dates. High trading volume means high fees, so activity levels are crucial.

Despite ASTER's 28% drop in the past 30 days, the platform still maintains its top position in terms of trading volume.

The technical chart is forming a falling wedge pattern – meaning the price is moving within two converging trend lines. If the closing price breaks above the upper resistance line, the pattern will be complete, and a strong upward price movement is likely, with a breakout target near $1.48. Compared to the current price of around $0.69, this represents an increase of over 114%.

If the price fails to break above the wedge and continues to move within it, the downtrend is not yet truly broken. Only when the lower support line is breached will the pattern be confirmed as failed.

ASTER is a token worth watching because, despite its current price weakness, its technical structure remains intact. A single breakout trading session could reverse the situation.

Furthermore, the growth story of decentralized exchanges continues into 2026, especially with the increasing number of new users. If this trend persists, ASTER could benefit and grow instead of continuing to decline.

$ENA Analysis : An Undervalued DeFi Token

Over the past year, the price of ENA has fallen by as much as 79%, bringing it to an attractive level for investors if buying pressure returns.

Some positive signs have emerged. Arthur Hayes – a well-known trader and founder of an exchange – has begun buying ENA. Large wallets have also seen slow but steady growth. These aren't hype signals, but simply evidence that interest in ENA still exists.

On the technical chart, the $0.19 level has repeatedly acted as a strong support zone. If ENA holds this level in early 2026, the possibility of reaching $0.27 will open up, representing an increase of approximately 35% and also the first resistance zone.

Breaking through this level, the next target would be $0.53 – a medium-term price range if demand for the token remains strong.

Conversely, if the $0.19 level is breached, ENA could fall sharply to $0.13, making the token cheaper but also carrying higher risks. Currently, ENA is one of the DeFi tokens worth watching due to its discounted price range, interest from whales, and key price levels to confirm the trend.

Strategy's price plummets for the sixth consecutive month, despite still accumulating Bitcoin.

Strategy (MSTR) stock declined continuously for the last six months of 2025, for the first time since the company adopted bitcoin as a reserve asset in August 2020, according to crypto expert Chris Millas.

This rare losing streak lasted from July to December 2025, with sharp drops in August (-16.78%), October (-16.36%), November (-34.26%), and December (-14.24%). The difference is that there were no significant rebounds like in previous corrections, suggesting a more persistent revaluation process.

At the close of trading on December 31, MSTR stood at $151.95, down 11.36% for the month, 59.30% for the six months, and 49.35% for the twelve months. This performance lags far behind Bitcoin and even the Nasdaq 100, which is projected to rise 20.17% in 2025.

Notably, the decline occurred even as Strategy continued to buy more Bitcoin. On December 29, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced that the company had purchased 1,229 BTC for approximately $108.8 million. As of December 28, Strategy held 672,497 BTC, with a total expenditure of approximately $50.44 billion.

$BTC

Ethereum is expected to lose over $100 million in fees in 2025, "stolen" by Layer 2 Base.

Layer-2 Revenue Declines, Putting Pressure on ETH Value

Technical upgrades, particularly Dencun, have significantly reduced transaction fees and improved scalability. However, this has resulted in a sharp decline in Ethereum mainnet revenue. In 2024, Layer-2 generated $277 million in revenue, with 41% going to Ethereum. By 2025, total Layer-2 revenue was projected to drop to $129 million, while payments to the mainnet were only around $10 million.

The prolonged low fees also weakened the ETH burning mechanism, causing supply to revert to a slightly inflated state since The Merge. ETH thus lost a crucial price support driver.

Base Leads, Value Centralized

This shift creates a more centralized Layer-2 market. Coinbase's base is projected to account for nearly 60% of the entire Layer-2 industry's revenue by 2025, far surpassing Arbitrum and other competitors. Much of the value generated by the Ethereum ecosystem is flowing to Layer-2 platforms capable of direct user integration, rather than being evenly distributed across the network.

Ethereum Dominates DeFi, Despite ETH Weakness
Despite the price drop, Ethereum has increased its DeFi market share to approximately 64% TVL, and over 70% including Layer-2. This demonstrates that institutions and large investors prioritize security, liquidity, and legal compliance over low costs.

The Challenge for 2026

Ethereum is becoming the industry's default settlement layer, but the ETH token is under pressure as economic benefits shift to Layer-2 and applications. For investors, this is a period of weighing network utility against the token's potential for value accumulation. Supporters argue this is a necessary trade-off for Ethereum to solidify its long-term position, although the path reflected in ETH's price will no longer be as direct as before.

Binance warnt vor neuem Betrug: Fälschung von Hacking-Geschichten, um Entschädigungen von der Börse zu erzwingen.

Binance warnt vor einem neuen Betrug, bei dem Betrüger die Opfer nicht direkt dazu bringen, Geld zu überweisen, sondern stattdessen ganze Geschichten über einen Betrug erfinden, um die Börse unter Druck zu setzen, Entschädigungen zu zahlen. Laut Binance haben die Täter gefälschte Chatprotokolle erstellt und Überweisungsdokumente verändert, um ein Szenario zu konstruieren, in dem sie von einem "Binance-Mitarbeiter" betrogen wurden.

Die Untersuchung offenbarte mehrere Unregelmäßigkeiten. Die angebliche Wallet-Adresse gehörte tatsächlich dem Initiator der Transaktion, was darauf hindeutet, dass sie wahrscheinlich vom Beschwerdeführer kontrolliert wurde. Auch die Überweisungsdokumente wurden von der Treuhandplattform beschafft und manipuliert, um die Geschichte zu legitimieren. Der Täter kontaktierte sogar das echte Konto eines Binance-Mitarbeiters, um Screenshots zu erhalten, und mischte diese dann mit gefälschten Daten, um die Glaubwürdigkeit zu erhöhen.

Binance kam zu dem Schluss, dass es sich um einen betrügerischen Versuch handelte, das Unterstützungsystem der Börse anzugreifen, was die zunehmend ausgeklügelte Art von Betrügereien im Bereich der Kryptowährungen widerspiegelt.

$LINK Technical Analysis

Chainlink (LINK) has been trading within the area between the 50-day SMA ($13.15) and the $11.61 support level for the past few days.

A positive divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that selling pressure is gradually decreasing. This increases the likelihood of a price breakout above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). In that case, the LINK/USDT pair could rise to $15.01. A close above $15.01 would indicate that the downtrend may have ended.

Conversely, if Chainlink's price reverses sharply from the moving averages and breaks below $11.61, it would suggest that bears are still in control of the market. The pair could then fall significantly below the $10.94 support level, paving the way for a drop to the October 10th low of $7.90.

$HYPE Technical Analysis

Hyperliquid (HYPE) bears are defending at the 20-day EMA ($26.44), but a positive sign is that the bulls haven't ceded too much of an advantage to the bears.

This increases the likelihood of a breakout above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the HYPE/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($30.74) and then a breakout at $35.50.

This bullish outlook would be invalidated in the short term if Hyperliquid's price reverses downwards from the moving averages and breaks below $22.19. In that case, the pair could retest the October 10th low at $20.82.

$SOL Technische Analyse

Solana (SOL) verfolgt in den letzten Tagen eng den 20-Tage-EMA bei 126 $, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Bullen weiterhin Druck ausüben.

Wenn der Preis über dem 20-Tage-EMA schließt, könnte das SOL/USDT-Paar in die obere Widerstandszone bei 147 $ steigen. Es gibt einen geringen Widerstand bei der 50-Tage-SMA (132 $), aber dieser dürfte überwunden werden.

Umgekehrt würde ein Rückgang des Solana-Preises von den gleitenden Durchschnitten darauf hindeuten, dass die Bären weiterhin die Kontrolle über den Markt haben. In diesem Fall würde das Risiko eines Rückgangs auf 108 $ steigen, und letztendlich auf die entscheidende Unterstützungszone bei 95 $.

$XRP Technische Analyse

Käufer versuchen, eine Rallye für XRP einzuleiten, indem sie den Preis über den 20-Tage-EMA bei 1,91 $ drücken.

Wenn dies erfolgreich ist, könnte das XRP/USDT-Paar auf den 50-Tage-SMA bei 2,04 $ steigen, gefolgt von der absteigenden Trendlinie. Es wird erwartet, dass Bären diese Trendlinie aggressiv verteidigen, da ein Schlusskurs darüber einen potenziellen Trendwechsel signalisieren würde. In diesem Fall könnte der Preis auf 2,70 $ steigen.

Auf der Abwärtsseite ist 1,61 $ ein wichtiger Unterstützungslevel, den es zu beobachten gilt. Ein Schlusskurs darunter würde den nächsten Abwärtsbewegung signalisieren, und XRP könnte auf das Tief vom 10. Oktober von 1,25 $ fallen.