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IamHarrie

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My 2026 ThesisLast year had a political shift that helped bring in a new wave of institutional building. Much of this work has focused on making existing systems reliable, compliant, and usable by institutions, particularly in the areas of stablecoins and payment coordination systems. Here are five sectors that are likely to see greater focus, liquidity, and adoption going forward. 1. Stablecoins as a Global Payment Layer One of the developments would be the use of stablecoins as a global payment layer built on crypto infrastructure, while remaining largely abstracted from users. Over the past two years, stablecoin transfer volumes have exceeded those processed by Visa. This shows that stablecoins are already operating as a parallel financial system rather than a theoretical alternative. At the same time, TradFi companies are beginning to integrate crypto-based settlement into their existing payment rails. As this continues, application layers such as wallets, cards, and consumer platforms are likely to remain the primary point of user interaction, while stablecoins handle value transfer in the background. Several blockchain networks are also beginning to issue their own native stablecoins to capture and accrue value generated by the activities on their networks, and more ecosystems will likely look to internalize settlement and liquidity. 2. Perpetual Markets and Asset Concentration Perpetual futures markets account for a large portion of onchain trading activity. However, most of this activity is concentrated in a small number of assets. Roughly 80% of all perps volume comes from Bitcoin. Around 15% comes from other major assets, while the remaining 5% is spread across smaller tokens that tend to experience short periods of activity before fading. This pattern highlights that while new assets continue to appear, liquidity and sustained usage remain concentrated in established markets. In addition to crypto-based perpetuals, equity-based perpetual products are beginning to emerge. Some platforms like Hyperliquid, tradexyz , RobinhoodApp and a couple of others have integrated or intend to offer exposure to traditional equities through crypto native systems. 3. Privacy and Confidential Transactions As institutional participation increases, privacy has become a requirement. Organizations need to protect sensitive transaction details while still allowing verification and compliance. Confidential transactions are designed to meet this need. Rather than providing full anonymity, these systems allow transaction data to remain private while still being verifiable by authorized parties. Several chains like Aptos and Sui have announced plans to integrate confidentiality into their tech stacks. This infrastructure will become an important part of future onchain systems, particularly for enterprise and institutional use. 4. Prediction Markets Prediction markets continue to grow in usage and activity. A key change is that they are increasingly embedded into existing applications rather than operating as standalone platforms. This integration makes them easier to access and use. They are being applied as tools to reflect shared expectations and sentiment across a range of topics, rather than as isolated products. 5. AI and Agent-Based Systems AI agents and automated services are still early in development. Many approaches are being tested, and there are not too many single dominant models yet. Crypto infrastructure provides tools for coordination, verification, and incentive design within these systems. The efforts of builders right now are focused on building dependable components that support more complex interactions over time, especially in payment and service networks. A Word for Builders As these systems mature, attention shifts from infrastructure to application and execution. For startups building in this environment, three objectives remain consistent. → Build a product that people want. The product should address problems that matter to users. → Second, build a community around the product. A strong community helps with feedback, distribution, and trust. When possible, this community should benefit from network effects, where the product becomes more valuable as participation grows. → Third, give ownership to the community. Ownership can help bootstrap early adoption and align incentives between builders and users. The next phase is likely to be defined less by new ideas and more by how effectively these systems are combined, scaled, and tested in concrete use cases.

My 2026 Thesis

Last year had a political shift that helped bring in a new wave of institutional building. Much of this work has focused on making existing systems reliable, compliant, and usable by institutions, particularly in the areas of stablecoins and payment coordination systems.
Here are five sectors that are likely to see greater focus, liquidity, and adoption going forward.
1. Stablecoins as a Global Payment Layer
One of the developments would be the use of stablecoins as a global payment layer built on crypto infrastructure, while remaining largely abstracted from users.
Over the past two years, stablecoin transfer volumes have exceeded those processed by Visa.
This shows that stablecoins are already operating as a parallel financial system rather than a theoretical alternative.
At the same time, TradFi companies are beginning to integrate crypto-based settlement into their existing payment rails. As this continues, application layers such as wallets, cards, and consumer platforms are likely to remain the primary point of user interaction, while stablecoins handle value transfer in the background.
Several blockchain networks are also beginning to issue their own native stablecoins to capture and accrue value generated by the activities on their networks, and more ecosystems will likely look to internalize settlement and liquidity.

2. Perpetual Markets and Asset Concentration
Perpetual futures markets account for a large portion of onchain trading activity. However, most of this activity is concentrated in a small number of assets.
Roughly 80% of all perps volume comes from Bitcoin. Around 15% comes from other major assets, while the remaining 5% is spread across smaller tokens that tend to experience short periods of activity before fading.
This pattern highlights that while new assets continue to appear, liquidity and sustained usage remain concentrated in established markets.
In addition to crypto-based perpetuals, equity-based perpetual products are beginning to emerge. Some platforms like Hyperliquid, tradexyz , RobinhoodApp and a couple of others have integrated or intend to offer exposure to traditional equities through crypto native systems.

3. Privacy and Confidential Transactions
As institutional participation increases, privacy has become a requirement.
Organizations need to protect sensitive transaction details while still allowing verification and compliance.
Confidential transactions are designed to meet this need. Rather than providing full anonymity, these systems allow transaction data to remain private while still being verifiable by authorized parties.
Several chains like Aptos and Sui have announced plans to integrate confidentiality into their tech stacks. This infrastructure will become an important part of future onchain systems, particularly for enterprise and institutional use.

4. Prediction Markets
Prediction markets continue to grow in usage and activity. A key change is that they are increasingly embedded into existing applications rather than operating as standalone platforms.
This integration makes them easier to access and use. They are being applied as tools to reflect shared expectations and sentiment across a range of topics, rather than as isolated products.

5. AI and Agent-Based Systems
AI agents and automated services are still early in development. Many approaches are being tested, and there are not too many single dominant models yet.
Crypto infrastructure provides tools for coordination, verification, and incentive design within these systems. The efforts of builders right now are focused on building dependable components that support more complex interactions over time, especially in payment and service networks.

A Word for Builders
As these systems mature, attention shifts from infrastructure to application and execution. For startups building in this environment, three objectives remain consistent.
→ Build a product that people want. The product should address problems that matter to users.
→ Second, build a community around the product. A strong community helps with feedback, distribution, and trust. When possible, this community should benefit from network effects, where the product becomes more valuable as participation grows.
→ Third, give ownership to the community. Ownership can help bootstrap early adoption and align incentives between builders and users.
The next phase is likely to be defined less by new ideas and more by how effectively these systems are combined, scaled, and tested in concrete use cases.
Was tun, wenn die Märkte fallenIm Moment ist der Markt im Rückgang, und in den letzten Tagen gab es viele Liquidationen. Nicht nur im Krypto-Bereich, sondern auch bei Mineralien wie Gold und Silber. Historisch gesehen folgt die Liquidität einem ziemlich vorhersehbaren Zyklus. Wenn Mineralien wie Gold und Silber anfangen, an Marktkapital zu verlieren, rotiert das Kapital oft in Krypto. Wenn Krypto schwächer wird, fließt die Liquidität typischerweise zurück in stabilere Wertspeicher wie Edelmetalle oder andere stabile Vermögenswerte. Das war der übliche Zyklus. Aber dieses Mal ist es ein wenig anders.

Was tun, wenn die Märkte fallen

Im Moment ist der Markt im Rückgang, und in den letzten Tagen gab es viele Liquidationen. Nicht nur im Krypto-Bereich, sondern auch bei Mineralien wie Gold und Silber.
Historisch gesehen folgt die Liquidität einem ziemlich vorhersehbaren Zyklus. Wenn Mineralien wie Gold und Silber anfangen, an Marktkapital zu verlieren, rotiert das Kapital oft in Krypto. Wenn Krypto schwächer wird, fließt die Liquidität typischerweise zurück in stabilere Wertspeicher wie Edelmetalle oder andere stabile Vermögenswerte.
Das war der übliche Zyklus.
Aber dieses Mal ist es ein wenig anders.
Prediction Markets and AdoptionPrediction markets grew quite fast in 2025 across sports and non-sports events, with estimated monthly volume rising more than ten times from the year before to around $13 billion by late 2025. Much of this activity came from sports markets through frequent small trades, while political and economic markets had fewer trades with much larger positions. It became clear over time on Kalshi and Polymarket that sports contracts generated most trades through steady user participation, while political and economic markets held most open interest as capital accumulated around major outcomes. ...and I mean really major outcomes. But then, the structure will be tested at a greater scale during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Global events of this size tend to push trading systems, compliance processes, and settlement to their limits, making the tournament a meaningful moment for prediction markets. The growth of prediction markets in 2025 needs context. Financial conditions can influence how actively people trade, but they do not explain adoption. These markets expanded even as interest rates stayed high, suggesting that liquidity affects volume more than it does to sustainable growth. Adoption is driven by broader access through brokerages and sportsbooks, simpler products, and growing comfort with event based trading. As participation increases, platform quality matters more, and we'll get to affirm that markets depend on trust, depth, and reliable settlement. This gives platforms with existing users, regulatory approval, and built-in funding systems a clear advantage.

Prediction Markets and Adoption

Prediction markets grew quite fast in 2025 across sports and non-sports events, with estimated monthly volume rising more than ten times from the year before to around $13 billion by late 2025.

Much of this activity came from sports markets through frequent small trades, while political and economic markets had fewer trades with much larger positions.

It became clear over time on Kalshi and Polymarket that sports contracts generated most trades through steady user participation, while political and economic markets held most open interest as capital accumulated around major outcomes.

...and I mean really major outcomes.

But then, the structure will be tested at a greater scale during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Global events of this size tend to push trading systems, compliance processes, and settlement to their limits, making the tournament a meaningful moment for prediction markets.

The growth of prediction markets in 2025 needs context. Financial conditions can influence how actively people trade, but they do not explain adoption. These markets expanded even as interest rates stayed high, suggesting that liquidity affects volume more than it does to sustainable growth.

Adoption is driven by broader access through brokerages and sportsbooks, simpler products, and growing comfort with event based trading. As participation increases, platform quality matters more, and we'll get to affirm that markets depend on trust, depth, and reliable settlement.

This gives platforms with existing users, regulatory approval, and built-in funding systems a clear advantage.
Amnis Finance: Das führende Liquid Staking-Protokoll auf AptosEiner der herausragenden DEXs auf Aptos, wenn es um Liquid Staking geht, ist Amnis Finance. Es wurde entwickelt, um Benutzern zu helfen, mehr aus dem Staking herauszuholen, ohne ihre Gelder zu sperren. Wenn Sie APT staken, erhalten Sie amAPT für flexible Nutzung oder stAPT, wenn Sie bevorzugen, auto-kompoundierte Erträge zu erhalten. Amnis trat im Oktober 2023 auf den Plan und begann schnell mit dem Aufbau dessen, was die bevorzugte Liquid Staking-Option auf Aptos werden würde. Normalerweise wird Ihr APT, wenn Sie es staken, gesperrt und Sie können es wirklich für nichts anderes nutzen. Aber mit Amnis ist das anders. Wenn Sie staken, erhalten Sie flüssige Token wie amAPT oder stAPT im Gegenzug. Sie können diese Token handeln, sie in Liquiditätspools verwenden oder sogar als Sicherheiten einsetzen. Noch besser, Amnis erhebt keine Gebühren auf Ihre Staking-Belohnungen.

Amnis Finance: Das führende Liquid Staking-Protokoll auf Aptos

Einer der herausragenden DEXs auf Aptos, wenn es um Liquid Staking geht, ist Amnis Finance. Es wurde entwickelt, um Benutzern zu helfen, mehr aus dem Staking herauszuholen, ohne ihre Gelder zu sperren. Wenn Sie APT staken, erhalten Sie amAPT für flexible Nutzung oder stAPT, wenn Sie bevorzugen, auto-kompoundierte Erträge zu erhalten.

Amnis trat im Oktober 2023 auf den Plan und begann schnell mit dem Aufbau dessen, was die bevorzugte Liquid Staking-Option auf Aptos werden würde. Normalerweise wird Ihr APT, wenn Sie es staken, gesperrt und Sie können es wirklich für nichts anderes nutzen. Aber mit Amnis ist das anders. Wenn Sie staken, erhalten Sie flüssige Token wie amAPT oder stAPT im Gegenzug. Sie können diese Token handeln, sie in Liquiditätspools verwenden oder sogar als Sicherheiten einsetzen. Noch besser, Amnis erhebt keine Gebühren auf Ihre Staking-Belohnungen.
Treffen Sie die Pioniere: Auro Finance und Movemaker.Hast du schon einmal vom Stablecoin-Trilemma gehört?🤔 Es ist eine Herausforderung, der sich viele Stablecoin-Systeme gegenübersehen, wenn sie versuchen, Preisstabilität, Dezentralisierung und Kapitaleffizienz gleichzeitig zu erreichen. In der Regel opfern sie eines für das andere. → Vollständig besicherte stabile Münzen sind stabil, aber sie sperren oft zu viel Kapital. → Algorithmische stabile Münzen sind effizient, aber sie brechen normalerweise während Stressphasen. Ein neues Modell namens Collateralized Debt Position (CDP) Modell wurde von Auro Finance eingeführt, bei dem Nutzer Vermögenswerte sperren, um stabile Münzen zu prägen, aber es für Aptos anpasst, indem es Proof-of-Stake-Belohnungen mit liquiden Staking-Token kombiniert, sodass die Nutzer beim Staking verdienen können, während sie ihre Vermögenswerte liquide halten.

Treffen Sie die Pioniere: Auro Finance und Movemaker.

Hast du schon einmal vom Stablecoin-Trilemma gehört?🤔

Es ist eine Herausforderung, der sich viele Stablecoin-Systeme gegenübersehen, wenn sie versuchen, Preisstabilität, Dezentralisierung und Kapitaleffizienz gleichzeitig zu erreichen. In der Regel opfern sie eines für das andere.

→ Vollständig besicherte stabile Münzen sind stabil, aber sie sperren oft zu viel Kapital.
→ Algorithmische stabile Münzen sind effizient, aber sie brechen normalerweise während Stressphasen.

Ein neues Modell namens Collateralized Debt Position (CDP) Modell wurde von Auro Finance eingeführt, bei dem Nutzer Vermögenswerte sperren, um stabile Münzen zu prägen, aber es für Aptos anpasst, indem es Proof-of-Stake-Belohnungen mit liquiden Staking-Token kombiniert, sodass die Nutzer beim Staking verdienen können, während sie ihre Vermögenswerte liquide halten.
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