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Bitcoin Market Alert: BTC Tests Critical Support Amid Macro Turbulence

February 4, 2026 — The cryptocurrency market is navigating a high-volatility phase this week as Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to maintain its footing above key psychological levels. Following a sharp correction that saw prices dip toward the $74,000 mark, the digital gold is currently in a "make or break" zone for short-term traders.
📉 Price Action: The Fight for $80k
Bitcoin is currently trading near $77,000 - $78,000, down significantly from its recent attempts to reclaim the $80,000 level.
The Bear Case: Analysts like Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence) have issued warnings of a potential "2008-style" financial crisis, suggesting that if macro conditions deteriorate, BTC could face a much deeper correction.
The Bull Case: On-chain data shows improving intraday momentum. Strategists note that holding the $76,700 - $73,500 support area is vital. A daily close above this range could set the stage for a rebound toward resistance at $84,000.
🏛️ The "Warsh Effect" & Macro Pressures
The primary catalyst for the recent "risk-off" sentiment is the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.
Hawkish Outlook: Known as a policy hawk, Warsh’s potential leadership has sparked fears of aggressive inflation-fighting and a shrinking Fed balance sheet.
Market Impact: This news hasn't just hit crypto; it triggered one of the largest single-day selloffs in Microsoft’s history and a massive crash in gold and silver prices. Investors are moving toward the U.S. Dollar, creating a headwind for Bitcoin.
🇮🇳 India Focus: Budget 2026 Expectations
With the Union Budget 2026 approaching, the Indian crypto community is closely watching for regulatory relief. Key industry demands include:
TDS Reduction: A push to lower the 1% TDS to 0.01% – 0.1% to bring liquidity back to domestic exchanges.
Loss Offset: Hopes for a policy change to allow investors to offset losses against gains, similar to traditional equity markets.
🛠️ Technical Outlook for Traders
For those utilizing technical analysis (like Moving Averages and KDJ), the current setup suggests:
Oversold Signals: The RSI is hovering near 27, indicating an oversold state on some timeframes, which often precedes a "dead cat bounce" or a trend reversal.
Volume Check: Watch for expanding buy volume at the $74,000 support. A failure here could open the door to a slide toward $68,000.
Pro Tip: Keep an eye on institutional ETF flows. Recent data showed significant outflows ($528M in a single session), suggesting that big players are waiting for the macro dust to settle before re-entering.