Whale Tracker

Denk darüber nach: Im Jahr 2010 hattest du eine echte Wahl. Du konntest Gold für etwa 1.200 $ pro Unze kaufen oder Bitcoin für nur 8 Cent. Beide waren Ideen zur Wertaufbewahrung, eine uralt, die andere brandneu.
Jetzt sieh dir die Ergebnisse von dieser Ausgangslinie an.

Gold Heute
· Preis 2010: ~$1,200 pro Unze
· Aktueller Preis: ~$5,080 pro Unze

· Wachstum: Ungefähr 4x seines Wertes von 2010.

Das ist solide, stabil und vertrauenswürdig – es erfüllt seine Aufgabe perfekt als Wertaufbewahrung.

Bitcoin Heute
· Preis 2010: $0.08
· Aktueller Preis: ~$88,000

· Wachstum: Ungefähr 1,1 Millionen Mal seinen Wert von 2010.

Cryptocurrencies rebounded sharply last Friday after record sell-offs that pushed Bitcoin down to $60k and triggered a record wave of liquidations of long positions across the altcoin market as well. Over the weekend, volatility was muted after the strong rally, and on Monday we are seeing Bitcoin slide back below $70k. Ethereum is trying to hold above $2,000.
Inflows into ETF funds remain very limited, while options market activity points to demand for hedging and potentially restraining strong price upside. On Friday, BTC ETFs recorded more than $350m of net inflows, while ETH saw net outflows of more than $20m. Historically, during bear markets Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin, and it appears that the largest cryptocurrency is drawing the most interest when it comes to “buying the dip.”
Michael Saylor from Strategy (MSTR.US) once again used social media to signal to markets that any time is a good time to buy BTC. However, the market is approaching Strategy exposure very cautiously: the company holds around 700k BTC and is currently sitting on roughly a 10% average loss on that position.
The market is also watching the situation at South Korea’s Bithumb exchange. On February 6, due to an error, it transferred 620k BTC to users while holding reserves of around 175 BTC. The issue was fixed and nearly 100% was recovered, but questions remain about the mechanism that made such a scenario possible.
Bitcoin and Ethereum chart (D1)
Bitcoin’s price is around 43% below the October peak, and on the daily timeframe—despite Friday’s rebound—it is still trading with the RSI close to oversold levels.

US BTC and ETH ETF flows
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., XTB Research
In 2028, Strategy’s maturing debt will total roughly $1bn, rising to around $3bn in 2029. In theory, the company currently has enough cash to cover the 2028 obligations and about 30% of the 2029 amount—however, even assuming a steep drop in annual operating costs, these could materially weaken its liquidity. In 2030, the company will need to repay an additional $2.8bn, and by 2032 another $800m. These figures do not appear extreme—provided the Bitcoin bull market returns.

Source: XTB Research, Strategy.com, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

$BTC
$ETH

KEY TAKEAWAYS
Binance’s SAFU fund purchased $300 million in Bitcoin, increasing its total holdings to 10,455 BTC.The purchase is part of a planned $1 billion conversion of SAFU stablecoins to BTC over 30 days, with an $800 million rebalance safeguard.The move follows a sharp early-February Bitcoin selloff that highlighted exchange backstops and transparency concerns.
Binance added 4,225 Bitcoins to its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) on Monday, converting about $300 million in stablecoins and bringing the fund’s total to 10,455 BTC.
The conversion is part of Binance’s plan announced on Jan. 29 to turn $1 billion of SAFU reserves into BTC within 30 days, with a safeguard to rebalance the fund if its value drops below $800 million.

Two days ago, someone sent 2.565 BTC (worth ~$181K) directly to the Satoshi Nakamoto Genesis Block wallet—the original, untouched wallet from Bitcoin's birth in 2009.
This isn't a hack. It's a tribute.
The transaction is now permanently embedded in the blockchain, increasing the wallet's legendary holdings to 1.096 million BTC ($77.6B)—a wallet that has never spent a single satoshi.
Some see it as a meme, others as a powerful symbolic act. It's a $181K message written in code, a direct "tip" to the creator of the entire system. A salute to the ultimate HODLer.
In a volatile market of speculation and leverage, this is a pure, unspendable act of respect for the original vision.
What do you think—a profound gesture, or the most expensive meme in crypto history? 🫡
Let's discuss. 👇

Bitcoin gained up to 3% Sunday, but some traders refused to believe that the BTC price crash was over.
Key points:
Bitcoin price comparisons warn that new macro lows are due if the 2022 bear market continues to repeat.
Moving averages and the cost basis of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are in focus.
Analysis says that a carbon copy of 2022 is not a certainty.
Bitcoin capitulation “hasn’t happened yet”
Data from TradingView showed
BTC crossing $71,000, now up 20% versus Friday’s 15-month lows.
As the weekly close neared, Bitcoin added characteristic volatility, while market participants remained highly skeptical that the rebound would last.
Uploading a chart to X which compared current BTC price action to the 2022 bear market, independent analyst Filbfilb had no good news for bulls.
“Im not going to try to dress it up any way other than how it looks,” he commented alongside a chart showing spot price versus the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $95,300.
Analyst Tony Severino held similar ideas, contributing multiple price indicators and concluding that new lows were all but guaranteed.
$BTC final capitulation hasn't happened yet,” trader BitBull agreed, like Filbfilb referencing 2022.
“A real bottom will form below $50,000 level where most of the ETF buyers will be underwater.”

//Bitcoin bear market not over? Trader sees BTC price 'real bottom' at $50K

Bitcoin bear market not over? Trader sees BTC price 'real bottom' at $50K
Feb 8, 2026, 20:51 GMT+62 min read
BTCUSD+2.76%
Bitcoin BTCUSD gained up to 3% Sunday, but some traders refused to believe that the BTC price crash was over.
Key points:
Bitcoin price comparisons warn that new macro lows are due if the 2022 bear market continues to repeat.Moving averages and the cost basis of the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are in focus.Analysis says that a carbon copy of 2022 is not a certainty.
Bitcoin capitulation “hasn’t happened yet”
Data from TradingView showed BTCUSD crossing $71,000, now up 20% versus Friday’s 15-month lows.

As the weekly close neared, Bitcoin added characteristic volatility, while market participants remained highly skeptical that the rebound would last.
Uploading a chart to X which compared current BTC price action to the 2022 bear market, independent analyst Filbfilb had no good news for bulls.
“Im not going to try to dress it up any way other than how it looks,” he commented alongside a chart showing spot price versus the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $95,300.

Analyst Tony Severino held similar ideas, contributing multiple price indicators and concluding that new lows were all but guaranteed.
“$BTC final capitulation hasn't happened yet,” trader BitBull agreed, like Filbfilb referencing 2022. 
“A real bottom will form below $50,000 level where most of the ETF buyers will be underwater.”

The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) currently have an average buy-in cost of $82,000, per data from monitoring resource Checkonchain.
BTC price deja vu continues
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a key bear market feature for Bitcoin based on two other trend lines: the 200-week simple (SMA) and exponential moving averages. 
Together, they form a “cloud” of support between $58,000 and $68,000.
In one of his latest market takes at the weekend, Caleb Franzen, creator of analytics resource Cubic Analytics, argued that here too, the ghost of 2022 was in play.
In May 2022, Bitcoin retested its 200-week MA cloud. Bulls said ‘that's it, we've retested the long-term moving average & can continue higher now.’ Price immediately rebounded on that zone, produced a long wick, & closed above the midpoint of the weekly range,” he summarized.
“But then that rally faded... Price came back into the 200W MA cloud a few weeks later, failed to rebound, then sliced through the cloud in June 2022. What are we seeing right now? The first retest of the 200W MA cloud with a long wick.”
Franzen note that the market may not replicate the previous bear market “perfectly.”
“The reality is that no one knows what happens next,” he acknowledged.
$USDC

Everyone's asking: is altseason over before it even started?
The short answer? It's delayed, not dead. But it won't look like 2021.
Why the Wait?
New money from Bitcoin ETFs isn't rotating into alts yet. Capital is lazy—it's parking in BTC. Retail isn't FOMO-ing like before. The market needs a fresh catalyst.
Your 3 Altseason Signals:
1. BTC Dominance must break down (below ~54%).
2. Ethereum (ETH/BTC) needs to start leading.
3. We need a new, convincing Bitcoin rally to spark the "wealth effect."
Until then, we're in a "selective season." Money flows to narratives with real use: Real-World Assets (RWA), high-performance chains, and robust DeFi.
Your Move:
· Don't FOMO. Trade the cautious trend.
· Build a quality watchlist (ETH, SOL, high-conviction narratives).
· Use Binance Convert to DCA or Binance Earn to stake and earn yield while you wait.
The impatient get rekt. The prepared get positioned.
What's your take?
1. Bullish & Buying the dip.
2. Cautious & Waiting for a clear signal.
3. Skeptical the old altseason is gone.
Drop 1, 2, or 3 below. Let's see where the crowd stands. 👇

Seit Jahren war der "Bitcoin 4-Jahres-Zyklus" die ultimative Roadmap. Halving → Akkumulation → Explosion. Abspülen und wiederholen.
Aber schau dir das Chart an. Das alte, perfekte Muster—1064 Tage nach oben, 364 Tage nach unten—ist gebrochen. BTC folgt dem Skript nicht mehr.
Wir handeln um $70K nicht wegen eines Zyklus, sondern weil sich das Spiel geändert hat.
Warum der alte Zyklus nicht mehr regiert:
1. Institutionelle Einarbeitung: ETFs, Unternehmensschatzämter und Makrofonds handeln nicht zu "Halving-Terminen." Sie handeln aufgrund von Liquidität, Zinsen und globalem Risiko.

The bitcoin market cycle refers to the recurring pattern of price behaviour in the bitcoin market, characterised by alternating periods of appreciation and depreciation. This cycle is a result of market sentiment, which impacts buying and selling activity. Bitcoin sentiment is influenced by a variety of factors, including regulatory changes, technological developments, and the broader economy and traditional finance (TradFi) markets.

Historically, bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halving events, which happen approximately every four years. A halving event marks a 50% cut in the bitcoin reward miners receive for mining new blocks and verifying transactions. In effect, the bitcoin supply continues to increase, but at a slower rate, upholding the network’s deflationary principles. The knock-on effect has led to steep price increases, driven by speculation and a decrease in the supply of new bitcoin entering circulation. The last halving occurred on April 19, 2024, when the block reward decreased from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins. The next halving is expected in April 2028.

What are the Bitcoin Market Cycle Phases?
The chart below illustrates the cyclical nature of bitcoin’s price and its historical trends.

Phase 1 – Accumulation
The accumulation phase of the bitcoin market cycle occurs when prices are (relatively) low, but small signs of growth appear. During this phase, forward-thinking buyers will accumulate cheaper bitcoin as it represents the point of maximal upside.
Typically, there is bearish sentiment in the market, so volume is low and prices fluctuate in a tight range near the bottom.
Phase 2 – Growth
In bitcoin’s growth phase, price continues moving towards the all-time high. Halving events in the past have occurred here, coinciding with shrinking exchange reserves as buyers absorb supply in anticipation of capturing rising prices and new all-time highs.
Phase 3 – Bubble
In the bubble phase of the bitcoin market cycle, the price eclipses the previous all-time high and begins to move exponentially to the upside. These higher prices typically exceed the previous highs by a significant amount. The bitcoin bubble phase is extremely volatile, characterised by rapid price increases followed by significant corrections.
Sell volume builds as a portion of investors lock in healthy profits, while many market participants continue to buy, believing the bull market has more room to run. As a result, price volatility is low given that buy and sell volumes begin to balance against a backdrop of overconfidence. At this point, the Fear & Greed Index typically flashes Extreme Greed.
Phase 4 – Crash
Following the euphoria of the bubble phase, the market will experience a major correction to the downside. Previous bear market periods have resulted in approximately 80% drawdowns from the top and negative price action for approximately a year. The most recent example saw the price tumble by almost 78% from an all-time high of US$69,000 in November 2021 to US$15,476 in November 2022.
Understanding Sentiment through Historical Bitcoin Cycle Patterns
Aside from trading volume and indicators, such as the Fear and Greed Index, there are other indicators that can help traders and investors understand bitcoin’s market sentiment.
Getting an Indication of Price through Bitcoin Exchange Reserves
Before bitcoin reaches new highs, the amount of bitcoin held in central exchange wallets is typically low, indicating that investors may be holding their BTC and waiting for higher prices. This HODLing reduces available supply (even further in a high-demand period) and, as seen below, this can result in sharp price increases.

Identifying Market Cycle Phase with New Interest in Bitcoin
Peak interest in bitcoin, as measured by Google search activity, was reached in December 2017, coinciding with the bull market’s run-up to an all-time high. Since then, Google Trends shows that the search volume for 'bitcoin' hasn’t reached the same levels as the 2017 bull run, despite delivering multiple all-time highs since.
Similarly, Google search volume for ‘crypto’ peaked during the 2021 bull run, though it did reach 96 in August 2025, when the crypto market experienced a rally. The most-recent spike in search volume suggests that, while attention is now focused on the entire ecosystem, and market participants may get information without specifically searching “crypto,” a strong rally still sees a spike in retail interest like previous bull markets.

Macro & Bitcoin Correlation
The relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, referred to as a correlation, shifts based on broader market sentiment. Throughout 2025, a pattern has emerged in which bitcoin’s price is highly correlated with risk assets, such as those held in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq), when risk-off sentiment prevails. For example, in April 2025, following the announcement of President Trump’s tariffs, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached 0.73 and 0.76, respectively. As geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East persisted throughout May and June 2025, bitcoin’s correlation with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hovered around 0.90. And in the October 10 crypto crash that saw over US$19 billion of liquidations, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached 0.77 and 0.77, respectively.
It's important to recognise that correlations can change over time, and the relationship between bitcoin’s price movements and other asset classes can be influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic events, geopolitical uncertainty, and regulatory developments. However, at this point in time, noting bitcoin’s correlation with the major U.S. indexes can be helpful in determining overall crypto market sentiment.
Like periods throughout 2025, when volatility increased and TradFi and crypto risk assets sold off, monitoring bitcoin’s correlation with TradFi can become an indicator of broader crypto sentiment and quell fears that there is a crypto-specific catalyst for the sell-off.

Mainstream Adoption of Bitcoin
Several recent developments have seen adoption in the growth of bitcoin as both a store of value and legal tender. These developments are outlined below.
Public Companies Buying Bitcoin
Mainstream adoption of bitcoin has been on a steep curve. In January 2018, the value of BTC trading on Binance surpassed $11 billion – a fraction of the bitcoin traded on the platform in March 2024, when the exchange saw over $1trillion worth of volume across all assets. Over this period, bitcoin has proven itself to a growing community of retail and, crucially, institutional investors, including exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers, governments, and public and private companies. As of December 2025, corporate treasuries held over 8% of total BTC supply. The largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin is Microstrategy, which currently holds 650,000 BTC, purchased at an average price of $74,436 per bitcoin. Famously, Tesla also holds a stack of over 11,500 BTC on its balance sheet.
Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds
Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption has grown following the successful launch of over ten Bitcoin Spot ETFs. For those seeking exposure to bitcoin through traditional finance institutions and wealth management firms, bitcoin ETFs offer an option that may be more accessible to those less familiar with crypto technology. However, for crypto natives and those interested in the privacy that crypto offers, buying bitcoin through a broker or exchange and transferring these holdings to a cold wallet is the optimal approach. This approach is what gave rise to the saying, “not your keys, not your coins,” in the crypto community.
Regulatory Developments
Governments worldwide have increased their regulatory efforts to establish a clear framework for the cryptocurrency sector. In June 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. The country's legislature approved a law that requires businesses to accept bitcoin as a form of payment for goods and services, and also established a BTC reserve through purchasing bitcoin using the country’s funds. El Salvador’s BTC reserve currently stands at 7,475 BTC, with an average purchase price of US$67,741.
Crypto regulation was a key policy area for President Trump in the 2024 presidential election, and several regulatory developments have occurred since his inauguration in January 2025. In early 2025, President Trump made an executive order to create two new government-managed funds for digital assets: a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and a U.S. digital assets stockpile. At this stage, these digital asset reserves will be capitalised with crypto assets seized in criminal forfeiture. Bills to establish other digital asset reserves, where the Federal Government may use public funds to acquire bitcoin and other digital assets, are currently before Congress in varying stages of progress.
Three U.S. states have enacted laws to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) using public funds: Arizona, New Hampshire and Texas. There are currently 19 SBR bills live across eight states, while nineteen states voted against SBR bills. In November 2025, Texas became the first U.S. state to buy bitcoin. State officials executed the transaction, buying US$5 million worth of BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF. While it’s a relatively small amount, the purchase indicates the State’s commitment to adding bitcoin to its long-term treasury planning.
Other key pieces of legislation expected to provide regulatory clarity to the crypto sector, which could potentially drive upward price momentum, are the GENIUS Act (the U.S. Senate’s stablecoin bill) and the Digital Asset Market Clarity, or CLARITY Act. Stay up-to-date on the latest developments in crypto regulation and the current market with our Weekly Rollup.
Bitcoin as Legal Tender
Beyond investors, several large companies accept bitcoin as payment, including PayPal, Microsoft, Shopify, and Chipotle, among others. This trend is expected to continue growing as crypto adoption becomes increasingly mainstream. In November 2025, Block (formerly Square), led by Jack Dorsey, enabled BTC payments for around 4 million Square merchants. Transactions settle instantly via Bitcoin’s Lightning Network, and sellers can optionally convert payments to fiat. Block is waiving all processing fees through 2027 to accelerate adoption. This trend is expected to continue growing as crypto adoption becomes increasingly mainstream.