Bitcoin just retraced through November 3rd — exactly on schedule with a pattern we flagged back in October.
Here's the setup: In 2014, 2018, and 2022, $BTC was already deep in a bear market heading into U.S. midterm elections. Major cycle bottoms formed around or shortly after those dates. Now in 2026, we're seeing the same structure play out again.
But let's be clear — this isn't about politics causing crashes. It's more likely a coincidence of timing: Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, U.S. election cycles, and global liquidity conditions all converging at roughly the same intervals. Correlation, not causation.
What matters is the pattern itself. Midterm election windows have historically been worth watching for potential bear market lows. We called this risk before November 3rd, and the weakness followed.
The real question now: Is this the cycle bottom, or is there one more flush coming?
History doesn't repeat perfectly, but ignoring a pattern that's hit three times in a row is how you get caught wrong-footed. Watch the structure, not the narrative.
Here's the setup: In 2014, 2018, and 2022, $BTC was already deep in a bear market heading into U.S. midterm elections. Major cycle bottoms formed around or shortly after those dates. Now in 2026, we're seeing the same structure play out again.
But let's be clear — this isn't about politics causing crashes. It's more likely a coincidence of timing: Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, U.S. election cycles, and global liquidity conditions all converging at roughly the same intervals. Correlation, not causation.
What matters is the pattern itself. Midterm election windows have historically been worth watching for potential bear market lows. We called this risk before November 3rd, and the weakness followed.
The real question now: Is this the cycle bottom, or is there one more flush coming?
History doesn't repeat perfectly, but ignoring a pattern that's hit three times in a row is how you get caught wrong-footed. Watch the structure, not the narrative.
