Posting today’s gold analysis 🙂↕️
About $300 in three days. The decline that started at 4147 reached 3852 last night. With US CPI pushing interest rates into the 5% range, gold, which pays no interest, has kept getting sold.
But there is a change this morning. After dipping below the two-day low of 3870 with a wick, it quickly recovered and bounced back to 3916. This is the kind of move that often appears near the end of a decline: it sweeps in stop-loss orders, then reverses.
Even so, it’s too early to say the trend has changed. The rebound highs are still making lower highs, and there are two walls above. 3920-3930 is where it plunged last night. Many people bought at that level and are still holding, so selling will come on a bounce. 3960-3975 is the broken neckline, and it overlaps with the 38.2% retracement of the entire decline—the main resistance.
For shorts, wait for an upper wick to confirm at 3920-3930. If it breaks through, don’t chase it; wait for the main resistance. For longs, wait for a pullback to the halfway point of this morning’s rebound, 3875-3890, and confirm a lower wick and a higher low. If it breaks below 3852, stand aside.
sell zone 2 3960-3975
Broken neckline and 38.2% retracement
sell zone 1 3920-3930
23.6% retracement and the starting point of last night’s decline
buy zone 1 3875-3890
Halfway point of this morning’s rebound and the moving average
buy zone 2 3845-3855
Last night’s low
Tonight at 10:30 is the US PPI. If it’s strong, another leg down. But it’s a Friday after three days of selling, and if the number is weak, short covering will send it back up in one move. The same goes if the dollar is sold on intervention. Either way, it’s a night with room to move. Close your positions before the release.
About $300 in three days. The decline that started at 4147 reached 3852 last night. With US CPI pushing interest rates into the 5% range, gold, which pays no interest, has kept getting sold.
But there is a change this morning. After dipping below the two-day low of 3870 with a wick, it quickly recovered and bounced back to 3916. This is the kind of move that often appears near the end of a decline: it sweeps in stop-loss orders, then reverses.
Even so, it’s too early to say the trend has changed. The rebound highs are still making lower highs, and there are two walls above. 3920-3930 is where it plunged last night. Many people bought at that level and are still holding, so selling will come on a bounce. 3960-3975 is the broken neckline, and it overlaps with the 38.2% retracement of the entire decline—the main resistance.
For shorts, wait for an upper wick to confirm at 3920-3930. If it breaks through, don’t chase it; wait for the main resistance. For longs, wait for a pullback to the halfway point of this morning’s rebound, 3875-3890, and confirm a lower wick and a higher low. If it breaks below 3852, stand aside.
sell zone 2 3960-3975
Broken neckline and 38.2% retracement
sell zone 1 3920-3930
23.6% retracement and the starting point of last night’s decline
buy zone 1 3875-3890
Halfway point of this morning’s rebound and the moving average
buy zone 2 3845-3855
Last night’s low
Tonight at 10:30 is the US PPI. If it’s strong, another leg down. But it’s a Friday after three days of selling, and if the number is weak, short covering will send it back up in one move. The same goes if the dollar is sold on intervention. Either way, it’s a night with room to move. Close your positions before the release.
