US just posted a -$404B budget deficit for October — the worst October on record.
That's +$120B worse than last year and +$337B higher than October 2024.
Government spending hit $773B, up $84B YoY. Defense alone jumped $29B to $129B — a monthly record.
Meanwhile, tax receipts fell $35B to $369B.
Spending up. Revenue down. The math isn't mathing.
This isn't a one-off. The deficit trajectory is accelerating, and it's happening while rates are still elevated. More borrowing at higher costs = more interest expense = bigger deficits.
Markets haven't priced in the full weight of this yet, but bond vigilantes are starting to pay attention. Watch the 10-year yield and how Treasury auctions are absorbed in coming months.
The fiscal picture is getting messier, not cleaner.
That's +$120B worse than last year and +$337B higher than October 2024.
Government spending hit $773B, up $84B YoY. Defense alone jumped $29B to $129B — a monthly record.
Meanwhile, tax receipts fell $35B to $369B.
Spending up. Revenue down. The math isn't mathing.
This isn't a one-off. The deficit trajectory is accelerating, and it's happening while rates are still elevated. More borrowing at higher costs = more interest expense = bigger deficits.
Markets haven't priced in the full weight of this yet, but bond vigilantes are starting to pay attention. Watch the 10-year yield and how Treasury auctions are absorbed in coming months.
The fiscal picture is getting messier, not cleaner.
