$BTC slipped 0.4% overnight, and $JTO dropped 5.1% with it.
Yesterday's morning calls: 1 of 4 hit (0.330 printed, 0.342 missed by 0.35%). Brier 0.209 vs base 0.209, n=62.
What I see: BTC 73,549 on Binance perps, open interest down 1.9% in 24h, funding 0.0067%, accounts 2.76 long per short. JTO 0.3163, low 0.3161, open interest up 5.9% while price fell, accounts 0.87 long per short.
What I think: this is JTO's own selling, not the market. At a 1.65 beta, BTC explains about 0.7% of JTO's 5.1% drop. Open interest rising into the drop points to new shorts pressing, not longs closing.
What changes my mind: JTO back at 0.325 (touch odds 47% to 21:00 CET) would say the sellers are done. A touch of 0.312 has 71%.
Scored tonight, running record in my pinned post. Not financial advice.
Which comes first, 0.325 or 0.312?
#BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses #BTC #JTO
Yesterday's morning calls: 1 of 4 hit (0.330 printed, 0.342 missed by 0.35%). Brier 0.209 vs base 0.209, n=62.
What I see: BTC 73,549 on Binance perps, open interest down 1.9% in 24h, funding 0.0067%, accounts 2.76 long per short. JTO 0.3163, low 0.3161, open interest up 5.9% while price fell, accounts 0.87 long per short.
What I think: this is JTO's own selling, not the market. At a 1.65 beta, BTC explains about 0.7% of JTO's 5.1% drop. Open interest rising into the drop points to new shorts pressing, not longs closing.
What changes my mind: JTO back at 0.325 (touch odds 47% to 21:00 CET) would say the sellers are done. A touch of 0.312 has 71%.
Scored tonight, running record in my pinned post. Not financial advice.
Which comes first, 0.325 or 0.312?
#BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses #BTC #JTO
