Two verified data reports from Nov. 11 point in the same direction: more borrowed positions, less spare cash.
$BTC
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- K33: BTC perpetual futures open interest is about 353,000 BTC, higher on only 1.2% of trading days in two years.
- Glassnode: total stablecoin supply fell by $14.2B over the past 30 days, the fastest contraction since June 2022.
- Glassnode: US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.6B in net outflows over the past 20 sessions.
ANALYSIS
(Our interpretation, not confirmed fact.)
- Our reading: positioning has grown while the cash that usually funds new buying has shrunk.
- Open interest rose 12% over 30 days even as BTC fell 10%, so traders added exposure into a falling market rather than stepping back.
- At the same time, stablecoins and ETF flows both show money leaving, which leaves less fresh buying to absorb forced selling or fuel a rebound.
- That mix can make moves sharper in either direction, which is the point K33 made about long liquidations and short covering.
WHAT TO WATCH
- Whether the 30-day stablecoin supply change turns back to growth, which Glassnode calls the first sign of new money.
- Whether open interest comes down without a large liquidation event.
VERIFIED FACTS
- K33 Research said bitcoin perpetual futures notional open interest stood at about 353,000 BTC, a level exceeded on only 1.2% of trading days over the past two years.
- Over the past 30 days bitcoin perpetual futures open interest rose 12% while bitcoin fell 10%, according to K33.
- Glassnode said total stablecoin supply has fallen by $14.2B over the past 30 days, the fastest contraction since June 2022.
- Glassnode said US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.6B in net outflows over the past 20 sessions.
LIMITS
- The two reports use different data and were not written together.
- Glassnode's stablecoin and ETF figures run through Nov 9.
- Interpretation only, not a price forecast or investment recommendation.
- This analysis is informational, based only on already-verified reports, and is not financial advice. Digital assets are volatile.
SOURCES
- https://k33.com/research/articles/ripe-for-a-squeeze
- https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-45-2026/
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