October CPI just printed hotter than consensus — headline +0.4% MoM (expected 0.3%), core +0.3% MoM (expected 0.2%). No YoY comp because of last year's shutdown mess.
Shelter alone drove 30% of the monthly increase, which is the same sticky category that's been the Fed's headache all year. This isn't transitory noise — it's the stuff that keeps Powell hawkish.
October rate hike odds spiked to 98.8%. Market was pricing ~80% yesterday. That gap just closed hard. If you're long duration or rate-sensitive names, today's a repricing event. If you're watching $BTC or risk assets, this is the kind of print that tightens financial conditions through the curve, not just the front end.
The Fed's data-dependent stance just got a lot less ambiguous.
Shelter alone drove 30% of the monthly increase, which is the same sticky category that's been the Fed's headache all year. This isn't transitory noise — it's the stuff that keeps Powell hawkish.
October rate hike odds spiked to 98.8%. Market was pricing ~80% yesterday. That gap just closed hard. If you're long duration or rate-sensitive names, today's a repricing event. If you're watching $BTC or risk assets, this is the kind of print that tightens financial conditions through the curve, not just the front end.
The Fed's data-dependent stance just got a lot less ambiguous.
