$BTC at 74.6k sits between two liquidation walls: longs stacked at 73.4k to 73.8k, shorts at 75.5k to 76.0k. US CPI lands at 14:30 CET and one of them probably gets taken today.
Morning Map #8. Yesterday's morning calls: 3 of 4 hit. Running Brier 0.209 vs 0.209 base (n=44), so no edge yet, just honest odds.
What I see:
BTC liquidity is a bit heavier below, roughly 560M in longs vs 460M in shorts. Funding flat, OI +2.4% in 24h.
JTO 0.3366, OI +10% in 24h while price is only +3%. Shorts stacked 0.341 to 0.348, longs at 0.333 and 0.324 to 0.328.
What I think:
Chop between the walls until the print. JTO moves about 1.65x BTC, so a sweep of 75.5k lines up with JTO tagging 0.342, a flush to 73.5k with 0.328.
What changes my mind:
BTC holding above 76k after CPI, or a 15m close under 73.4k.
Touch odds to 21:00 CET are on the card. Scored tonight, running record in my pinned post.
Which wall goes first after CPI: 73.4k or 76k?
Not financial advice.
#BTC #JTO #cpi #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
Morning Map #8. Yesterday's morning calls: 3 of 4 hit. Running Brier 0.209 vs 0.209 base (n=44), so no edge yet, just honest odds.
What I see:
BTC liquidity is a bit heavier below, roughly 560M in longs vs 460M in shorts. Funding flat, OI +2.4% in 24h.
JTO 0.3366, OI +10% in 24h while price is only +3%. Shorts stacked 0.341 to 0.348, longs at 0.333 and 0.324 to 0.328.
What I think:
Chop between the walls until the print. JTO moves about 1.65x BTC, so a sweep of 75.5k lines up with JTO tagging 0.342, a flush to 73.5k with 0.328.
What changes my mind:
BTC holding above 76k after CPI, or a 15m close under 73.4k.
Touch odds to 21:00 CET are on the card. Scored tonight, running record in my pinned post.
Which wall goes first after CPI: 73.4k or 76k?
Not financial advice.
#BTC #JTO #cpi #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
