Is this 2022 again, or 2020? Bitcoin sits 39.25% below its $124,710 closing high, so I asked the data.

I searched every day since 2012 for the ones that look most like November 6 on-chain: how far price sits below its high, how much profit holders are carrying, and whether recent buyers are selling at a gain or a loss. Seven CryptoQuant metrics in total, including MVRV and SOPR.

Today:

- MVRV Ratio: 1.405. The average coin is worth 40.5% more than it cost

- Short-Term Holder SOPR (30-day average): 1.002. Recent buyers are selling at break-even

The 10 closest twins, at least 120 days apart, and where price was 90 days later:

Ended lower:

- April 2022: -43.1%

- September 2018: -41.0%

- August 2014: -32.8%

Ended higher:

- February 2016: +5.4%

- March 2023: +18.4%

- August 2023: +20.0%

- March 2020: +22.8%, after falling 39.0% first

- August 2016: +23.6%

- June 2012: +101.8%

- September 2020: +132.1%

History gives both answers. 2022 is one twin out of ten. 2020 is two, and both ended higher.

That 7 to 3 split is about what Bitcoin does on any day: since 2012, it was higher 90 days later on 59.5% of all days.

When the twins fell, they fell hard. The three that ended lower lost 32.8% to 43.1%, with drops of up to 52.3% inside those 90 days.

10 twins, 7 distinct years: a small sample.

Anyone telling you "this is 2022" or "this is 2020" is picking a side. The data holds both.

Written by thechessONCHAIN