HYPE is trading at about $77.56–77.76, down about 6.6–7.0% in 24h. The daily range was about $76.34–84.82. One Investing.com quote of $83.50 conflicts with all other sources and looks stale. It is down about 17% over 7 days after rallying near $95 in late October. Key question: can buybacks defend the $74–76 support while a contributor unlock lands today?
Technicals
Moving averages:
Below the 50-day SMA ($85.66) and EMA ($82.45).
At or just below the 100-day ($78.3).
Well above the 200-day SMA ($67.8).
RSI(14): about 41, neutral.
Resistance: $82.60 · $85.2–85.6 (50-day MA) · $88.47 (Nov 5 high) · $97.96 (ATH)
Support: $77.72 · $75.9–76 · $74.36 (October low) · $67.8 (200-day MA)
Fundamentals and on-chain
Revenue and buybacks:
Protocol revenue was about $2.72M on Nov 5, about 35K HYPE/day at current prices.
About 99% of fees go to buy-and-burn.
The Assistance Fund holds about 48.7M HYPE.
Unlock: 180,000 HYPE (~$14.5M) go to core contributors today. That is about 1.8% of the 9.92M scheduled. The next unlock is Dec 6.
Platform: about $64.7B traded over 30 days, roughly 26.7% via HIP-3 markets (not exchange-confirmed).
ETFs: −$3.02M on Nov 5, the second straight day of outflows (BHYP −$2.19M, HYPG −$0.83M).
Treasury company: Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) beat Q3 revenue estimates with $13.3M. It filed to become a CFTC-registered FCM for HIP-3 markets.
Derivatives:
Open interest is $1.71–3.66B depending on the source.
About $5.9M of liquidations in 24h.
Funding was positive all of last week. I found no current rate.
Top news
HYPE fell about 7% and tested $76 support in the macro selloff.
Hyperliquid Strategies filed for FCM status and reported Q3 results.
The 180K HYPE contributor distribution happens today.
HYPE ETFs posted a second day of outflows.
Forecasts
🟢 Bullish, $85–88: HYPE reclaims $82.6 and the 50-day MA near $85.5.
⚪ Base, $74–83: a range between the October low and $82.6.
🔴 Bearish, $68–74: a break below $74.36 targets the 200-day MA near $67.8.
Analyst views
Arthur Hayes (Maelstrom): a $150 target. This is an older call that pointed to August 2026.
CryptoTicker: buybacks slow the decline but do not reverse it. It watches $76, $74.36 and $67.78.
Upcoming events
Fri Nov 6, during the day: 180K HYPE contributor distribution.
Fri Nov 6, 15:30: US October jobs report.
Tue Nov 10, 15:30: US October CPI.
Sun Dec 6: next scheduled HYPE unlock.