The global economy faces greater risks, but a collapse resembling the Great Depression remains a remote possibility. A sustained slowdown, additional stock-market declines and recessions in some major economies are more credible threats. Doubts about AI investment returns, China's economic weakness and expensive oil could reinforce one another while persistent inflation limits policy responses. The IMF estimated that oil staying above $130 through the first quarter of 2027 because of prolonged Middle East conflict could lower next year's global growth by around 0.5 percentage points. Current employment and credit-market indicators do not establish a system-wide crisis. Bitcoin cannot be assumed to protect investors during an immediate financial panic.
