The 10-year Treasury traded below 5% on Thursday for the first time since 23 September, on the same session December $BZ closed up 4.00% at 113.17. You'd normally expect an oil move that size to push yields up, since energy feeds straight into the inflation prints... this time the bid for duration came from Europe.
France's 10-year hit 5.142%, its highest since 2002 and above Treasuries for the first time since 2013, with the Bund spread at 176bp and French 5-year CDS over 100bp for the first time since October 2012. I think that's money running into Treasuries out of a European credit scare, and for a session it beat the oil impulse. The Fed is in blackout until the 29th, so none of it came from anything the Fed said.
$BTC fell 3.59% the same day, which isn't what the rates picture alone would have you expect from an asset with no cash flow.
I'm watching whether the 10-year can stay under 5% into the FOMC on 27-28 October while Brent holds this bid.
#Bonds #Treasuries #Macro #Bitcoin
France's 10-year hit 5.142%, its highest since 2002 and above Treasuries for the first time since 2013, with the Bund spread at 176bp and French 5-year CDS over 100bp for the first time since October 2012. I think that's money running into Treasuries out of a European credit scare, and for a session it beat the oil impulse. The Fed is in blackout until the 29th, so none of it came from anything the Fed said.
$BTC fell 3.59% the same day, which isn't what the rates picture alone would have you expect from an asset with no cash flow.
I'm watching whether the 10-year can stay under 5% into the FOMC on 27-28 October while Brent holds this bid.
#Bonds #Treasuries #Macro #Bitcoin