Both BTC and the S&P 500 are showing weakness, and we've seen a similar setup before.

In late 2018, the US 10Y Treasury yield rolled over from its highs as the S&P 500 came under pressure. BTC was also struggling, with the sell-off deepening into the end of the year.

We saw another example in Jan-Apr 2025. Treasury yields pulled back from their January highs, and the April market turmoil sent both BTC and the S&P 500 sharply lower.

Now, the 10Y yield is pushing towards multi-year highs again, while BTC and equities are starting to lose momentum. The S&P 500 has yet to see a proper correction.

If equities take a bigger hit from here, BTC could be dragged lower with them.

The two periods had different catalysts, so I'm not saying history will repeat itself. But with yields elevated and weakness already showing across both markets, the risk of a deeper correction is increasing.

Written by nocoffeenobrain