Bitcoin's long liquidations look small on CryptoQuant's chart, and the unit is hiding most of the story.
The chart tracks long liquidations in BTC. In March 2020 it hit about 180K BTC, and 2019 to 2021 regularly printed days of 40K to 75K. Today the biggest spikes of the past year sit near 10K to 11K BTC. That looks like a market that has calmed down. It isn't, because BTC is about sixteen times more expensive. By my math, 180K BTC at roughly $5K was about $0.9B, and 10K BTC at today's $81K is about $0.8B. Similar dollar size, far smaller bar.
What stands out to me is how October fits. Coinglass counted about $1.19B in total liquidations on October 8 and 9, with BTC longs near $273M, and about $820M more on October 12. Open interest sat near $52.7B after that flush. On this chart those events barely register, because a few thousand BTC isn't much against history.
The counter-argument is that smaller bars can mean the opposite of what they seem. Gradual deleveraging, with positions shaken out a few hundred million dollars at a time, is healthier than one huge cascade. And this metric counts forced selling, not how much leverage is actually sitting there.
I'd also be careful comparing eras. Exchange coverage has changed since 2019, so early and late bars aren't perfectly like for like.
The test is the high-water mark. A bar above 10K to 11K BTC would be the biggest flush of the past year, and with BTC near $81K and $80K as support, that's the scenario to watch if CPI-driven hike bets return.
#BTC Price Analysis# $BTC #Altcoin Season# #Macro Insights#
The chart tracks long liquidations in BTC. In March 2020 it hit about 180K BTC, and 2019 to 2021 regularly printed days of 40K to 75K. Today the biggest spikes of the past year sit near 10K to 11K BTC. That looks like a market that has calmed down. It isn't, because BTC is about sixteen times more expensive. By my math, 180K BTC at roughly $5K was about $0.9B, and 10K BTC at today's $81K is about $0.8B. Similar dollar size, far smaller bar.
What stands out to me is how October fits. Coinglass counted about $1.19B in total liquidations on October 8 and 9, with BTC longs near $273M, and about $820M more on October 12. Open interest sat near $52.7B after that flush. On this chart those events barely register, because a few thousand BTC isn't much against history.
The counter-argument is that smaller bars can mean the opposite of what they seem. Gradual deleveraging, with positions shaken out a few hundred million dollars at a time, is healthier than one huge cascade. And this metric counts forced selling, not how much leverage is actually sitting there.
I'd also be careful comparing eras. Exchange coverage has changed since 2019, so early and late bars aren't perfectly like for like.
The test is the high-water mark. A bar above 10K to 11K BTC would be the biggest flush of the past year, and with BTC near $81K and $80K as support, that's the scenario to watch if CPI-driven hike bets return.
#BTC Price Analysis# $BTC #Altcoin Season# #Macro Insights#