đ¨ $NVDA BEARISH BIAS: THE BOUNCE FAILED. WAIT FOR A RETESTâDONâT CHASE RED.
NVDAUSDT USD-M Futures last closed at $231.68 on 9 Oct 2026, 14:59:59 UTC. All 300 closed H1 candles passed validation.
Three clues favor sellers:
1ď¸âŁ H1 confirmed bearish BOS below $234.01, closing at $232.99.
2ď¸âŁ The recovery stalled at a lower high of $235.81; the latest sell candle closed at $231.19 on 3.66Ă its preceding 20-hour average volume.
3ď¸âŁ That displacement left a fresh bearish imbalance at $231.95â$233.99.
Wyckoff: developing markdown; no stable H1 range supports a confirmed distribution label. SMC retains bearish structure. The $235.81 lower high is the local invalidation reference, while $230.15 remains downside liquidity.
đ´ BEARISH BIAS â NO ENTRY YET
ONE CONDITIONAL SHORT MAP
Trigger: H1 close below $234.01 â confirmed.
Entry: $233.99â$234.31, the lost support area beside the imbalance. Require a bounce into the zone that fails to reclaim structure, then H1 closes back below $234.01. Entry is valid only while price remains in or very near the zone.
SL: $235.95, above the $235.81 lower high.
TP1: $231.37, nearby liquidity / reaction level â 1.54R.
TP2: $230.15, prior swing low â 2.22R.
R:R uses entry midpoint $234.15, before fees and slippage.
Thesis invalidation: H1 close above $235.81.
The last candle swept below nearby lows and recovered on 1.61Ă volume. That warns against selling into support; it does not yet confirm bullish reversal. The planned failed retest has not appeared.
No early Short. No chasing the displacement candle.
$NVDA #Wyckoff #SMC
Paper analysis only. Not financial advice.
Will sellers defend the lost support when the next bounce arrives? đ
NVDAUSDT USD-M Futures last closed at $231.68 on 9 Oct 2026, 14:59:59 UTC. All 300 closed H1 candles passed validation.
Three clues favor sellers:
1ď¸âŁ H1 confirmed bearish BOS below $234.01, closing at $232.99.
2ď¸âŁ The recovery stalled at a lower high of $235.81; the latest sell candle closed at $231.19 on 3.66Ă its preceding 20-hour average volume.
3ď¸âŁ That displacement left a fresh bearish imbalance at $231.95â$233.99.
Wyckoff: developing markdown; no stable H1 range supports a confirmed distribution label. SMC retains bearish structure. The $235.81 lower high is the local invalidation reference, while $230.15 remains downside liquidity.
đ´ BEARISH BIAS â NO ENTRY YET
ONE CONDITIONAL SHORT MAP
Trigger: H1 close below $234.01 â confirmed.
Entry: $233.99â$234.31, the lost support area beside the imbalance. Require a bounce into the zone that fails to reclaim structure, then H1 closes back below $234.01. Entry is valid only while price remains in or very near the zone.
SL: $235.95, above the $235.81 lower high.
TP1: $231.37, nearby liquidity / reaction level â 1.54R.
TP2: $230.15, prior swing low â 2.22R.
R:R uses entry midpoint $234.15, before fees and slippage.
Thesis invalidation: H1 close above $235.81.
The last candle swept below nearby lows and recovered on 1.61Ă volume. That warns against selling into support; it does not yet confirm bullish reversal. The planned failed retest has not appeared.
No early Short. No chasing the displacement candle.
$NVDA #Wyckoff #SMC
Paper analysis only. Not financial advice.
Will sellers defend the lost support when the next bounce arrives? đ