Almost chalked today's drop up to generic macro weakness myself, until I saw what actually triggered it.
ETH dropped below $2,600 today, falling nearly 5%, triggering $252 million in liquidations. $238.1 million of that hit longs specifically.
The trigger was a specific statement, not vague macro pressure.
Tom Lee, BitMine's chairman, said at Token2049 that the company will stop its weekly ETH accumulation once holdings hit 5% of circulating supply. He said that's only about 100,000 ETH away, meaning the buying could halt within roughly two months.
I think that's the real story behind today's break.
One of the market's most consistent, visible institutional buyers just put a finish line on its own demand. The market reacted to that finish line immediately, rather than waiting for it to actually arrive.
Worth connecting this to something tracked before too.
BitMine's own 5% target has quietly moved once already, the denominator it measures against shifted as total ETH supply grew. Whether this specific stopping point holds steady or gets recalculated again the way it has in the past is worth watching, not assuming.$ETH
There's a real divergence sitting underneath the price drop too.
On-chain activity, active addresses and overall network engagement, hasn't weakened alongside the price. ETH's falling while actual usage data is holding up. That's either early capitulation or buyers quietly accumulating into weakness, depending on which side of this plays out.
Technically, ETH's now testing support in the $2,450-2,548 range, having lost both the 20-day EMA and the $2,626 level. Reclaiming that zone matters more than the headline percentage drop, since that's the actual test of whether this was a shakeout or the start of something bigger.
Not predicting which way it breaks. Just noting "bearish divergence, now testing support" has a specific, nameable cause this time, not just chart pattern language.
