*What they said:* $MET $GTC $BSP
- *Unanimous +25bp to 3.75%-4.00% in Sep* — first hike since July 2023. All 19 participants backed it
- *Median dot: 4.1% end 2026 and end 2027* — implies *one more hike this year, then no net change next year*. "Most participants assessed that another increase... would likely be appropriate by year end"
- *No rush for Oct:* WSJ notes minutes show no urgent case for Oct 28 — markets now ∼20% Oct, ∼80% Dec 8-9 hike
*Your AI wildcard confirmed:*
Fed flagged:
"The size of the AI investment boom, including spending on data centers and chips, had continued to surprise them" and "could keep price pressures alive"
Plus:
- Energy prices up
- Staff inflation forecast raised for 2026-2028, only back to 2% in 2029
- Several said current rate only "mildly restrictive" or "not restrictive"
- A few want to plan for bond market stress while hiking — yields 5.34% 10Y
*Market reaction:* BTC $83,065 low then $83,311 (-2.5%), ETH $2,564, $600M longs liquidated — exactly the "rates higher + AI hot = not what risk wanted" trade.
*BREAKING 🇺🇸 FOMC minutes Sep 15-16: +25bp to 3.75-4% unanimous — Most pencil in one more hike to 4.1% by year-end — Wildcard: several flag AI data center/chip spending surge surprising to upside, could overheat and reignite inflation — energy + tariffs too — market prices skip Oct, hike Dec 8-9 — higher for longer + AI hot 🔥*
- *Unanimous +25bp to 3.75%-4.00% in Sep* — first hike since July 2023. All 19 participants backed it
- *Median dot: 4.1% end 2026 and end 2027* — implies *one more hike this year, then no net change next year*. "Most participants assessed that another increase... would likely be appropriate by year end"
- *No rush for Oct:* WSJ notes minutes show no urgent case for Oct 28 — markets now ∼20% Oct, ∼80% Dec 8-9 hike
*Your AI wildcard confirmed:*
Fed flagged:
"The size of the AI investment boom, including spending on data centers and chips, had continued to surprise them" and "could keep price pressures alive"
Plus:
- Energy prices up
- Staff inflation forecast raised for 2026-2028, only back to 2% in 2029
- Several said current rate only "mildly restrictive" or "not restrictive"
- A few want to plan for bond market stress while hiking — yields 5.34% 10Y
*Market reaction:* BTC $83,065 low then $83,311 (-2.5%), ETH $2,564, $600M longs liquidated — exactly the "rates higher + AI hot = not what risk wanted" trade.
*BREAKING 🇺🇸 FOMC minutes Sep 15-16: +25bp to 3.75-4% unanimous — Most pencil in one more hike to 4.1% by year-end — Wildcard: several flag AI data center/chip spending surge surprising to upside, could overheat and reignite inflation — energy + tariffs too — market prices skip Oct, hike Dec 8-9 — higher for longer + AI hot 🔥*
