Tom Lee called "excessive pessimism" on CNBC this week. On the earnings side, the numbers actually back him up, tbh. Q3 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth is tracking near 29.5%, up from 26.7% estimated back on June 30. That's a real, upward revision.
Here's what I found once I actually traced his full track record though, honestly, and it's more interesting than I expected.
Back in October 2025, Lee made almost this exact same pessimism argument, pointing to sentiment readings only seen in real bear markets while the S&P was already up 13% that year. He predicted the index would top 7,000 by year-end. It closed 2025 at 6,886.68, tbh, a bit short of that target, close but not quite there.
Then for 2026, he set a bolder target, 7,700. By March, holding firm despite Iran-war volatility. By mid-year though, with the S&P actually down on the year and roughly 70% of the index in what he called a "rolling bear market," his own language shifted, quietly, to "maybe get to that 7,300."
That's genuinely the same shape as his crypto calls, honestly. A bold number gets set, pressure hits, the target gets revised down without much fanfare, not abandoned, just quietly softened.
Crypto's version of this is simpler to measure. His ETH target went from $9,000-12,000 in May to $6,000 by August, already being challenged again in September.
I think the honest takeaway is less "he's right on stocks, wrong on crypto" and more that Lee runs the same playbook everywhere, tbh. Bold target, strong conviction, quiet downward revision when reality pushes back, then a return to confidence once conditions improve again. This week's "excessive pessimism" call is backed by real Q3 data. Whether the underlying pattern looks different this time is still genuinely open.
Not dismissing this week's call, honestly. The earnings numbers are real. Just noting the full track record is more consistent, across both markets, than treating stocks and crypto as separate stories would suggest.
