$AAVE: DON'T CHASE THE GREEN CANDLE—THE LAST PUSH HIGHER WAS SOLD HARD.
AAVEUSDT Binance USD-M Futures H1 last closed at $168.17 (1 Oct, 15:59 UTC). Exactly 300 closed candles validated.
The warning is in the sequence:
• AAVE pushed to $170.97, then closed that hour at $166.16. Volume reached 239.2K AAVE—5.80x the preceding 20-hour average.
• The next candle recovered to $168.17 and reclaimed the $166.53 swing high, confirming a local bullish CHoCH.
• That recovery is still below $168.77 and $170.97, with a partially mitigated bearish imbalance overhead at $170.64–$172.33.
Wyckoff: the upper-range rejection is a potential upthrust/UTAD candidate, not a confirmed distribution phase. Lower-range SC/ST candidates also exist; the evidence is mixed.
SMC: the latest bullish CHoCH supports recovery, but one reclaimed swing high does not erase the high-volume rejection overhead.
⚪ NO CLEAR EDGE — SKIP TRADE
No entry, SL or TP map is being issued.
My point is simple: a green candle is not permission to Long into supply. Wait for closed-candle confirmation and a retest that buyers actually defend. If the move leaves without a valid entry, let it go.
$162.23 remains the recent structural low to monitor. These are observation levels, not trade instructions.
Will buyers absorb the $170.64–$172.33 supply, or is this recovery still running into sellers?
#Wyckoff #SMC
Paper analysis only. Not financial advice.
AAVEUSDT Binance USD-M Futures H1 last closed at $168.17 (1 Oct, 15:59 UTC). Exactly 300 closed candles validated.
The warning is in the sequence:
• AAVE pushed to $170.97, then closed that hour at $166.16. Volume reached 239.2K AAVE—5.80x the preceding 20-hour average.
• The next candle recovered to $168.17 and reclaimed the $166.53 swing high, confirming a local bullish CHoCH.
• That recovery is still below $168.77 and $170.97, with a partially mitigated bearish imbalance overhead at $170.64–$172.33.
Wyckoff: the upper-range rejection is a potential upthrust/UTAD candidate, not a confirmed distribution phase. Lower-range SC/ST candidates also exist; the evidence is mixed.
SMC: the latest bullish CHoCH supports recovery, but one reclaimed swing high does not erase the high-volume rejection overhead.
⚪ NO CLEAR EDGE — SKIP TRADE
No entry, SL or TP map is being issued.
My point is simple: a green candle is not permission to Long into supply. Wait for closed-candle confirmation and a retest that buyers actually defend. If the move leaves without a valid entry, let it go.
$162.23 remains the recent structural low to monitor. These are observation levels, not trade instructions.
Will buyers absorb the $170.64–$172.33 supply, or is this recovery still running into sellers?
#Wyckoff #SMC
Paper analysis only. Not financial advice.
