Electricity production is one of the most reliable gauges of real economic activity — and the US has been essentially flat for 20 years. That's a striking data point.

Now we're finally seeing a response (driven largely by AI infrastructure and data center buildouts), but the consensus among bond investors seems to be that the US can catch up without crushing the bond market in real terms. I don't see how that's feasible without some form of yield curve control down the line.

Worth watching closely — power demand is real, and the capital required to meet it is enormous. Bond markets will have to adjust.