Something unusual is happening beneath the surface.
Equity volatility ($VIX) and bond volatility (MOVE Index) are moving in opposite directions. The VIX/MOVE ratio just hit 0.15—lowest since December 2014.
In the past two weeks:
• MOVE Index surged 32% to 106.6 (highest since March 31st)
• $VIX dropped 9.5% to 16.0 (below its 2026 average of 18.3)
This is rare. Normally when Treasury volatility spikes, stocks follow. During the March-April 2025 correction and March 2026 pullback, this ratio jumped to 0.37 and 0.36 as equity vol caught up with bond vol.
But right now? Stock traders are calm while bond traders are panicking.
Historically, when this divergence gets extreme, stocks eventually catch up. Bond markets often lead. The question isn't if—it's when.
Keep an eye on this. If the pattern holds, equity volatility could be the next shoe to drop.
Equity volatility ($VIX) and bond volatility (MOVE Index) are moving in opposite directions. The VIX/MOVE ratio just hit 0.15—lowest since December 2014.
In the past two weeks:
• MOVE Index surged 32% to 106.6 (highest since March 31st)
• $VIX dropped 9.5% to 16.0 (below its 2026 average of 18.3)
This is rare. Normally when Treasury volatility spikes, stocks follow. During the March-April 2025 correction and March 2026 pullback, this ratio jumped to 0.37 and 0.36 as equity vol caught up with bond vol.
But right now? Stock traders are calm while bond traders are panicking.
Historically, when this divergence gets extreme, stocks eventually catch up. Bond markets often lead. The question isn't if—it's when.
Keep an eye on this. If the pattern holds, equity volatility could be the next shoe to drop.
